GFS For December 22nd. Freeze line may reach SE Louisiana

[cajungal]

I am not good at reading those maps. They only confuse me. But, I read this on the channel 4 New Orleans weather forum. They say that the GFS on December 22nd is showing the freeze line all the way down to New Orleans. With lots of moisture. That is pretty exciting! Even though I am 60 miles southwest of New Orleans, we saw a white Christmas last year! I had about an inch in accumalation and it snowed almost all afternoon. I wonder how reliable the GFS is 13 days out? I would love to see snow again, but not getting my hopes about it yet. It would be wild to see snow 2 years in a row here this close to Christmas.

[Brent]

The GFS 13 days out is all over the place... if it gets some consistency(multiple runs) then you can start to put faith in it. You have no idea how many times it has shown a blizzard here in the 12-16 day timeframe that never ever happens.

[cajungal]

Yeah, but you never know. It was showing snow here 2 weeks out last year. And it actually snowed here right when they said it would.

[Brent]

Yeah, but you never know. It was showing snow here 2 weeks out last year. And it actually snowed here right when they said it would.

Oh it very could well be right... it's just most times it's not.

It did nail the Christmas snowstorm, it just had it carrying over to here... which didn't happen.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Just remember a lot of times the indexes are not in place but this year the weather has become consistant and with a moderately -NAO,+PNA,& a very strong -AO winter will play havoc with the central and eastern USA this upcoming winter... Remember the trend is my friend......JSB

[aggiecutter]

The next major sustained arctic outbreak will be between the 15th and the 20th. All the long range models, particularly the Ensembles, have been onto this for the past week.

[CaptinCrunch]

15 degrees was a record low for D/FW this morning (17 was the record) and it was the coldest temp since the winter of 96'.

It was 10 this morning at my house in far southern Tarrant Co.

Models have been showing another major cold front pushing down, but I think this one will effect the SE more than it will effect us here in TX. It will get colder but not the super cold that we just had.

[Brent]

12z run on December 22nd... a little(and I do mean little) moisture, but no cold air.



and for Christmas morning:



About normal.

But these things change from run to run... so don't take it seriously right now. You shouldn't hang your hat on one model run showing something you want though(that is highly unlikely to happen).

[cajungal]

Then, I guess someone was reading the models wrong. They never make much sense to me. I can never understand what they are saying. I checked Accuweather and they show high temps in the 60's for the week of the 22nd! But, long range forecasts are very far off. I would be depressed if we had temps in the 60's for Christmas. I don't like the cold much, but it feels more like Christmas when it is cold. Sometimes I envy the people that live up north that get to see the snow plenty of times every winter. But, I know it is probably a big headache for them. We get all excited here if we even see a few flakes fall.

[Brent]

Then, I guess someone was reading the models wrong. They never make much sense to me. I can never understand what they are saying. I checked Accuweather and they show high temps in the 60's for the week of the 22nd! But, long range forecasts are very far off. I would be depressed if we had temps in the 60's for Christmas. I don't like the cold much, but it feels more like Christmas when it is cold. Sometimes I envy the people that live up north that get to see the snow plenty of times every winter. But, I know it is probably a big headache for them. We get all excited here if we even see a few flakes fall.

No... the GFS runs 4 times a day. The 6z run DID show some light snow in Southeast Louisiana 3 days before Christmas.



But as I said, each run shows something different.

[Brent]

Sometimes I envy the people that live up north that get to see the snow plenty of times every winter. But, I know it is probably a big headache for them. We get all excited here if we even see a few flakes fall.

Oh I defintely envy them... but after a few big snows, you'd be sick of it.

[cajungal]

Yeah, Brent, I agree. Because I have lived in this boring same little town in SE Louisiana all my life. So, I have no idea what it is truly like to spend my winters somewhere up north. I went to Cedar Rapids, Iowa a few years back in March. We left in T-shirts and shorts from 80 degree weather, but when we got as far north as Hannibal, MO the temps were in the 30's. We had to run in Micky D's to change into sweatshirts, jeans, and jackets. The people in there eating their breakfast probably thought we were nuts! Anyway, I know the models will keep changing back and forth. I just get so excited if we even have the slightest possibility for the frozen stuff in my area. Otherwise, I hate the cold with the passion.

[weathermom]

I have spent 42 years living "somewhere up north" and I have never gotten sick of snow. I was thinking as I was shovelling today that I much prefer shovelling snow, no matter how deep, to having to rebuild a home after a hurricane.

[txprog]

15 degrees was a record low for D/FW this morning (17 was the record) and it was the coldest temp since the winter of 96'.

It was 10 this morning at my house in far southern Tarrant Co.

Models have been showing another major cold front pushing down, but I think this one will effect the SE more than it will effect us here in TX. It will get colder but not the super cold that we just had.

14 degrees on Jan 3 2002 according to the NWS climate data. That was not part of a really cold outbreak, just a single very cold night.

Last REAL cold shot down here was, of course, lat Jan/early Feb 1996. Below freezing for five straight days, 8 degrees on Feb 4, but by the 7th it was 75, 81 on the 10th, 85 on the 14th, and 95 on the 21st. March 7-9 had us in the low 20's, the last real cold weather in March that I can remember.

95-96 had great variability, but also had consistent cold shots from mid-Dec to early March.

We've had a great start to winter. I am anxious to see how the rest unfolds.....

[cajungal]

After a cold day today, temps in our area will quickly rise into the mid 60's for the rest of the week. That is how crazy our weather is. One day you are dragging out the sweaters and jackets, the next you are searching your closet for short sleeves once again. It is not unheard of to be wearing shorts here in January sometimes.

[gboudx]

After a cold day today, temps in our area will quickly rise into the mid 60's for the rest of the week. That is how crazy our weather is. One day you are dragging out the sweaters and jackets, the next you are searching your closet for short sleeves once again. It is not unheard of to be wearing shorts here in January sometimes.

Yep, life during Winter in SELA. I can remember 1 or 2 Christmas's where we wore shorts to my grandma and grandpa's house. But Dallas isn't much different. This past Saturday a record high of 89 was set at DFW airport. This morning, a record low of 15 was set.

[PTrackerLA]

I remember the '96 outbreak well. I believe we had a freezing rain/flurry event when the front came through also. It was below freezing for 2-3 days around here and we bottomed out in the mid-teens. I don't think we've hit the teens since then but we've gotten reallly close.

[TS Zack]

The GFS that far out is a shot in the dark but it continues to show this pattern. A COLD PATTERN!

We will see but there may be some very cold air on the way just before Christmas.

[cajungal]

I hope so, Zack. It just does not feel like Christmas without the cold.