EURO falls in line

[aggiecutter]

with what the Ensembles have been showing for the past 5 days as far as the 15th-20th time frame is concerned. Looks like there will be a major arctic outbreak during this time frame.

EURO...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

The Ensembles...
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[Snow Now]

Do you see any moisture in the Mid-Atlanic and North East accompanying this Artic outbreak?

[aggiecutter]

Not sure about the moisture, but the CPC has jumped on this bigtime.

6-10 Day Maps
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

A portion of the 6-10 day discussion and link to discussion.

" SUPERENSEMBLE AND ECMWF FORECAST FAST 500-HPA FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUGGESTING THAT NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND LIKELY LEAD TO A STORMY PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN... THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. MOST PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS ARE NOW FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS... RAISING CONFIDENCE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS DURING THE 6-10 DAY TIME PERIOD."

Link to discussion...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus06.html

[aggiecutter]

12z day 7 EURO looks very impressive...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Portastorm]

12z day 7 EURO looks very impressive...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

The 0z run from today (Fri) appears to back off some on this scenario. Good thing, too, between the 12z run from Thurs you referenced and the 6z run today of the GFS, it looked like the Day After Tomorrow for Texas!

[aggiecutter]

Checkout the 12z Ensembles, it just came in, from hour 156 on. The Isobars run from Siberia straight down into Texas. That's as cold an Ensemble run as I've ever seen. That is December of 83' cold there, and not just one shot. This is the 7th day in a row the Ensembles have been showing this without wavering.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20912.html

If you look at the a NH view of the EURO, you can see the EURO has basically the same output. A very positive PNA pattern. Checkout the ridging from Alaska over into the Siberian straights, and a deep broad base trough over the southern plains.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmnh.108.gif

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Checkout the 12z Ensembles, it just came in, from hour 156 on. The Isobars run from Siberia straight down into Texas. That's as cold an Ensemble run as I've ever seen. That is December of 83' cold there, and not just one shot. This is the 7th day in a row the Ensembles have been showing this without wavering.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 20912.html

1983 or 89 it could be. The snowpack is there accross Canada and the plains to keep whatever from coming down from modifying drastically like it usually does. Not to mention this current cold snap we are going thru right now had had to cool down our current soil temps too as well as adjacent gulf waters.

[Portastorm]

The ensembles ... ah yes, and here I was hung up on the operational runs. Good point, aggiecutter ... thanks!

Yeah, those ensembles look frighteningly cold ... and if I'm not mistaken, it appears at 168h some kind of troughiness is laying back to the west. Am I seeing that right? This cold be a bitter cold AND wet pattern!

[cajungal]

People keep refurring to December 1983 as one of the coldest on records for Louisiana and Texas. I don't remember that year really at all. I was only 7 years old. I hear the Euro has been very reliable so far. What is it showing for the Louisiana/Texas gulf coast? Will the cold air make it this far south and will there be any moisture around?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

People keep refurring to December 1983 as one of the coldest on records for Louisiana and Texas. I don't remember that year really at all. I was only 7 years old. I hear the Euro has been very reliable so far. What is it showing for the Louisiana/Texas gulf coast? Will the cold air make it this far south and will there be any moisture around?

Cajungal,

Read this about 1983 in the Rio Grande Valley area of Texas and it should give you an idea about what it was like. I recall (and I was 11 back then)the that about this time in Decemebr we started to get cooler like we are this year and stayed kind of cool to cold until, bam, the big daddy hit on the 24th down here. You all probably had similar temps in Cajun country.

http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm

[CaptinCrunch]

I was 15 and in Jr High when everything froze over. Schools was closed for a week due to the strained power supplies.

D/FW & TEXAS

December 1983
Series of cold waves December 18-30; a record 295 consecutive hours below freezing = to (12.2 Days)
Inconvenienced travel, strained power supplies
Many water pipes burst, damaging residences and causing icy roads
Damage $50-100 million statewide; $1.5 million in Tarrant county alone

[PTrackerLA]

We hit the single digits in Lafayette in 1989, about as cold as you can get in these parts. There was a pond near my house that completely froze over and lots of people were out walking on it. I believe we also had a snowfall with the cold snap too.

[cajungal]

Usually I remember everything. But, I still can't remember 1983. Just reading about it. But, I do remember December 23, 1989. I was 13. The temps I think got down to 9 degrees here the Houma-Thibodaux area. And it snowed. We left to go to my grandparents later that afternoon. (They were living around Marksville at the time) We got a call from my neighbor at my grandparent's house. Water was gushing from our home. Our pipes were located in the attic at the time and they burst due to the extreme cold. It is a 3 and half hour drive just to get from the Marksville area to my house. When we got home, almost everything was ruined. Carpet was ruined and almost all our ceiling was gone. It took a long time to get our house back to normal. I also remember February 1988. I was 11. It also snowed that year. I am 29 now, so that makes 3 times that it snowed in my town so far in my lifetime.

[CaptinCrunch]

December 23, 1989 we hit -1 for a low temp here in Ft Worth, that's tied for 3rd on the all time low temp for D/FW since 1899.

December 1989
Sharp cold wave December 20-24 spread over all of Texas and southeast U.S.
Record demands for power; many pipes frozen; $25 million in damage at Dallas
Considerable damage to citrus in Florida and south Texas

[Kelarie]

So Porta, do I need to bring out the snow blower, snow chains, and the rest of my snow gear??

[Portastorm]

So Porta, do I need to bring out the snow blower, snow chains, and the rest of my snow gear??

Only if you want your neighbors to laugh at you and your friends and family to disclaim you!

You just won't let this rest, will ya?!

I'm going to leave the forecasting up to guys like Jeff and Don Sutherland on our board. What I will say is if these ensembles prove to be true, it will be colder than what we have seen here the last few days and the likelihood of some frozen precip would totally be in the realm of possibility.

[Kelarie]

I know, it just that fantasy of a couple days off work.... But that is just what that is, a fantasy. Probably would be required to come in, even if we had a major ice storm.

[Portastorm]

I know, it just that fantasy of a couple days off work.... But that is just what that is, a fantasy. Probably would be required to come in, even if we had a major ice storm.

Fantasy maybe, but it's a good one!

I would like to see some sleet or snow as well here in south central Texas. Freezing rain/drizzle stinks because when you lose your power, the attraction of the winter weather loses its appeal, at least to me. Thankfully our "storm" this week was minor and few lost power.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I know, it just that fantasy of a couple days off work.... But that is just what that is, a fantasy. Probably would be required to come in, even if we had a major ice storm.

Fantasy maybe, but it's a good one!

I would like to see some sleet or snow as well here in south central Texas. Freezing rain/drizzle stinks because when you lose your power, the attraction of the winter weather loses its appeal, at least to me. Thankfully our "storm" this week was minor and few lost power.

And worse, you might not be able to post your observations about the event on this board.

[Portastorm]

I know, it just that fantasy of a couple days off work.... But that is just what that is, a fantasy. Probably would be required to come in, even if we had a major ice storm.

Fantasy maybe, but it's a good one!

I would like to see some sleet or snow as well here in south central Texas. Freezing rain/drizzle stinks because when you lose your power, the attraction of the winter weather loses its appeal, at least to me. Thankfully our "storm" this week was minor and few lost power.

And worse, you might not be able to post your observations about the event on this board.

No kidding! What makes all of this so much fun is getting excited and anxious with fellow weather fanatics.

You go to someone not on S2K and ask them what a GFS ensemble is, and they'd probably tell you it was part of the latest woman's clothing line at Neiman Marcus!