Personal Review of 2005 Forecast, Preliminary 2006 Outlook

[DoctorHurricane2003]

NOTICE: This report is a review and verification of my personal 2005 Seasonal Forecast Numbers. With this report, I have changed the format of the verification statistics. I will give a June forecast verification beginning with 2004, a July/August forecast verification beginning with 2004, and I will continue the averaged forecast verification that is through 2001 where the June forecast is given twice the weight of the July/August forecast. I will also give grades to each section of my report on how well I think I did personally. I welcome comments and critique on my verification as always. On the 2006 Outlook, it is reminded that you do NOT take these numbers in any way so ask to make plans with them. They are only an estimation of what may happen next year based on certain phenomena and trends, however, over the next 6 months the phenomena and trends can change rapidly.

NOTE: In the case of any tropical cyclone development after this date and prior to January 1, 2006, this report will be updated to reflect the changes.

SECTION I. PERSONAL REVIEW OF 2005 OUTLOOK

Comments: This was certainly an interesting, busy, and destructive season. I know many of us, including myself, have learned many things from this very historical season. One day we will have another season as bad as this one, let's just hope it is not any time soon.

My outlook for the 2005 season did fairly considering how busy the season was in the Atlantic. The Eastern Pacific outlook, however, left much to be desired. On May 29, the outlook was:

ATLANTIC:
17 Tropical Depressions
16 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
05 Major Hurricanes
Chance of Seeing a Category 5: 51%

EASTERN PACIFIC:
15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
06 Hurricanes
03 Major Hurricanes
Chance of Seeing a Category 5: 36%

Source: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63217

The July 31st Update was:

ATLANTIC:
24 Tropical Depressions
22 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
Chances of Seeing a Category 5: 69%

EASTERN PACIFIC:
15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
05 Hurricanes
02 Major Hurricanes
Chance of Seeing a Category 5: 21%

Source: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69512

A. ATLANTIC REVIEW

The final numbers were:
29 Tropical Depressions
26 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
03 Category 5 Hurricanes

My second outlook reflect a major revision of the first outlook. After the record activity of June and July, including two strong category four hurricanes, I expected in my second outlook a much greater amount of tropical cyclones, however, I still underestimated the final tally. In terms of tropical depressions turning into tropical storms, I faired well as I expected a few to not turn into tropical storms. My named storms and hurricane numbers were greatly underestimated. The best two places in my forecast were the Major Hurricane amount and the Category 5 percentage. I expected a greater amount of major hurricanes to form this year due to the record Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. I also expected a much, much higher (69% is almost a guarantee of at least 1) chance of seeing a category 5 hurricane. This indeed occurred with our totals of 7 Major Hurricanes and the unprecedented 3 Category 5 Hurricanes. Following are my forecast outlooks' variation from what actually occurred:


(+/-)

05/29 Forecast
+12 Tropical Depressions
+10 Tropical Storms
+04 Hurricanes
+02 Major Hurricanes
Above Average Chance of Category 5 (0)

07/31 Forecast
+05 Tropical Depressions
+04 Tropical Storms
+03 Hurricanes
00 Major Hurricanes
Above Average Chance of Category 5 (0)


Overall, the Numerical Outlooks are given:
May 29: D- (60.0)
July 31: B (85.9)
Overall: C (73.0)

My forecast in terms of U.S. strike probability faired quite well. Below is a list of U.S. strikes and zone definitions, with my probability forecasts.
(For the purposes of this discussion Ophelia will be included since her eyewall came on shore)

ARLENE-Zone 3
CINDY-Zone 2
DENNIS-Zone 3
KATRINA-Zone 2,6
OPHELIA-Zone 8
RITA-Zone 2
TAMMY-Zone 7
WILMA-Zone 4


Zone 2: TX/LA Border (Sabine Pass) to LA/MS Border (Pearl River).
Zone 3: LA/MS Border (Pearl River) to Suwannee River, FL.
Zone 4: Suwannee River, FL to Cape Sable, FL.
Zone 6: Homestead, FL to St. Augustine, FL.
Zone 7: Jacksonville, FL to Savannah, GA.
Zone 8: Savannah, GA to Cape Hatteras, NC.

ZONE 2 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 85% (Extremely Probable)
HURRICANE: 60% (Probable)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 47% (Possible)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm CINDY, Major Hurricane KATRINA, Major Hurricane RITA
GRADE: B

ZONE 3 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 91% (Extremely Probable)
HURRICANE: 71% (Probable)
MAJOR HURRICANE 49% (Possible)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm ARLENE, Major Hurricane DENNIS
GRADE: A+

ZONE 4 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 82% (Extremely Probable)
HURRICANE: 65% (Probable)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 44% (Possible)
STRIKES: Major Hurricane WILMA
GRADE: B+

ZONE 6 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 94% (Extremely Probable)
HURRICANE: 79% (Probable)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 52% (Possible)
STRIKES: Hurricane KATRINA
GRADE: C

ZONE 7 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 37% (Somewhat Possible)
HURRICANE: 20% (Somewhat Possible)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 13% (Unlikely)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm TAMMY
GRADE: B+

ZONE 8 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 92% (Extremely Probable)
HURRICANE: 77% (Probable)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 43% (Possible)
STRIKES: Hurricane OPHELIA
GRADE: B+


The rest of the percentages faired well except with my Zone 1 (Texas Coast) Forecast in which I forecasted an above average chance for a Tropical Storm and an average for Hurricane, and my Zone 9 Forecast (Cape Hatteras to Rehobeth Beach) was slightly high. The worst forecast was apparently for Zone 2, where I did not expect that many major hurricanes to hit Louisiana. Overall The Probability Forecast is given an B (84.5%)

OVERALL ATLANTIC GRADE
The Forecast was not my best, but it wasn't a complete disaster. The numerical average is weighted twice versus the Probability Average.

2005 ATLC Forecast Grade: C (76.8%)

B. EASTERN PACIFIC REVIEW

The final numbers were:
16 Tropical Depressions
15 Named Storms
07 Hurricanes
01 Major Hurricane [NOTE: Hurricane Jova became a major hurricane west of 140 W)
00 Category 5 Storms

The two outlooks changed in that I decreased the hurricane and major hurricane count by one each. I continue to slightly improve my ability in forecasting Eastern Pacific seasons, where I have struggled in the past. I underestimated the name storm count, as I did not think there would be as many storms. I did, however, expect a slight return to normalcy in the hurricane amount and the hurricane to named storm ratio, which did occur. I did, however, believe that the major hurricane amount would be much lower than in years past, which also occurred. I also consistently believed that there was a below average chance for a category 5 hurricane this year.

(+/-)

05/29 Forecast
+1 Tropical Depressions
+2 Tropical Storms
+1 Hurricane
-2 Major Hurricanes
Below Average Chance of Category 5 (0)

07/31 Forecast
+1 Tropical Depressions
+2 Tropical Storms
+2 Hurricane
-1 Major Hurricanes
Below Average Chance of Category 5 (0)


Overall, the Eastern Pacific Outlooks are given:
May 29: B (85.1)
July 31: B+ (88.2)
Overall: B (86.1)


C. OVERALL 2005 GRADE:

I am greatly disappointed in my Atlantic forecast. I should have seen the possibility of more storms coming, but that did not happen in terms of my May 29 forecast. My July 31 forecast was better, but the combination of both will significantly throw off my verification averages, unfortunately. The overall grade is an average of the two basins.

OVERALL GRADE:

81.10% (B-)
-------------------------------------------------------------

SECTION II. OUTLOOK STATISTICS SINCE 2001 (ATLC) AND 2004 (EPAC)

PART A. END OF MAY/BEGINNING OF JUNE FORECAST STATISTICS (SINCE 2004)

ATLANTIC
Actual/Forecast

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 08/09 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 04/06 (2)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 29/17 (12)
Named Storms: 26/16 (10)
Hurricanes: 14/10 (4)
Major Hurricanes: 07/05 (2)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 7.00
Named Storms: +/- 5.00
Hurricanes: +/- 2.50
Major Hurricanes: +/- 2.00


EASTERN PACIFIC
Actual/Forecast

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/15 (1)
Named Storms: 12/13 (1)
Hurricanes: 06/07 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 03/03 (0)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 16/15 (1)
Named Storms: 15/13 (2)
Hurricanes: 07/06 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 01/03 (2)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.00
Named Storms: +/- 1.50
Hurricanes: +/- 1.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.00

-------------------------------

PART B. END OF JULY/BEGINNING OF AUGUST FORECAST STATISTICS (SINCE 2004)

ATLANTIC
Actual/Forecast

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 06/04 (2)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 29/24 (5)
Named Storms: 26/22 (4)
Hurricanes: 14/11 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 07/07 (0)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 3.50
Named Storms: +/- 2.00
Hurricanes: +/- 2.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.00


EASTERN PACIFIC
Actual/Forecast

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 12/14 (2)
Hurricanes: 06/06 (0)
Major Hurricanes: 03/03 (0)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 16/15 (1)
Named Storms: 15/13 (2)
Hurricanes: 07/05 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 01/02 (1)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.50
Named Storms: +/- 2.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 0.50

-------------------------------

C. TOTAL AVERAGED FORECAST STATISTICS (SINCE 2001)

Note: The May/June forecast is weighed twice as much as the July/August forecast.

ATLANTIC
Actual/Averaged Forecast
2001:
Tropical Depressions: 17/18 (1)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 04/04 (0)

2002:
Tropical Depressions: 14/16 (2)
Named Storms: 12/15 (3)
Hurricanes: 04/07 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 02/04 (2)

2003:
Tropical Depressions: 21/19 (2)
Named Storms: 16/15 (1)
Hurricanes: 07/09 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 03/04 (1)

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 06/04 (2)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 29/19 (10)
Named Storms: 26/18 (8)
Hurricanes: 14/10 (4)
Major Hurricanes: 07/06 (1)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 3.40
Named Storms: +/- 2.40
Hurricanes: +/- 2.20
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.20

Standards: I take the absolute value of the missed number of depressions, storms, hurricane, and major hurricanes, and average each category.

EASTERN PACIFIC

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/17 (1)
Named Storms: 12/14 (2)
Hurricanes: 06/07 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 03/03 (0)

2005:
Tropical Depressions: 16/15 (1)
Named Storms: 15/13 (2)
Hurricanes: 07/06 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 01/03 (2)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.00
Named Storms: +/- 2.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.00


-------------------------------------------------------------

SECTION III. PRELIMINARY 2006 OUTLOOK

I do not expect a season as active as this past season for the Atlantic by any means. ENSO, however, will still be neutral, with a possible weak La Nina (whichever we see, we will see about the same amount of storms for each.) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies have been in a trend downwards for the past few months, so it is quite possible that will continue through at least May, although secondary peaks are possible here and there. Next season might most resemble 1999 or 2000. With this general information, the best estimate for the 2006 season for both basins is as follows:

ATLANTIC BASIN 2006 OUTLOOK
17 Tropical Depressions
15 Named Storms
08 Hurricanes
04 Major Hurricanes
40% Chance of a Category 5

EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN 2006 OUTLOOK
15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
05 Hurricanes
02 Major Hurricanes
22% Chance of a Category 5





***End. Friday December 9 2005. 0811 PM EST.

[cycloneye]

A great review doc that you made.When will you do another 2006 outlook updating the two basin numbers?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

They are all generally at the same time, on rare occasions I issue a end of march/beginning of April forecast if I see something major change, but usually the next one will not be issued until sometime between May 26 and June 1, 2006, followed by the revision sometime between July 28 and August 5, 2006.

[cycloneye]

They are all generally at the same time, on rare occasions I issue a end of march/beginning of April forecast if I see something major change, but usually the next one will not be issued until sometime between May 26 and June 1, 2006, followed by the revision sometime between July 28 and August 5, 2006.

Ok thank you for the info.Will look foward to your next outlooks as in 2005 you did very well.