Flurries or light snow possible North AL/GA Sunday
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Flurries or light snow possible North AL/GA Sunday
Huntsville:
ALOFT...A COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SE
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SWING
EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
STRONG...UPPER FORCING WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP ENOUGH LAYER
MOISTURE ACCORDING TO ISENTROPIC PROGS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME IP N OF THE LOCAL AREA. ST/SC IS STILL CONFINED TO S TX...AND
MAY NUDGE INTO CENTRAL AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TOO LATE FOR
THE UPPER SUPPORT.
CONSIDERABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -5 TO -8C. MODELS STRONGLY
SUGGEST A SOLID ST/SC DECK OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR --SNSH...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN TN. WILL INTRODUCE TO FRANKLIN CO TN AND JACKSON CO AL.
CAA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUSPEND MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO GOING BELOW GUIDANCE.
Birmingham:
.LONG TERM...
SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP AS FAR NORTH AS CLANTON SATURDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AS A ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY LOOKS
COLD AND DRY.
Peachtree City:
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND...BRINGING MOISTURE TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO
INDUCE UPSLOPE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES OR
EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THICKNESSES
SUPPORT THIS WHILE WBZ'S DROP WELL INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL AGAIN RECOVER INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ROUNDS OUT AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN.
ALOFT...A COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING SE
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SWING
EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
STRONG...UPPER FORCING WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP ENOUGH LAYER
MOISTURE ACCORDING TO ISENTROPIC PROGS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME IP N OF THE LOCAL AREA. ST/SC IS STILL CONFINED TO S TX...AND
MAY NUDGE INTO CENTRAL AL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TOO LATE FOR
THE UPPER SUPPORT.
CONSIDERABLE COLD ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -5 TO -8C. MODELS STRONGLY
SUGGEST A SOLID ST/SC DECK OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR --SNSH...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN TN. WILL INTRODUCE TO FRANKLIN CO TN AND JACKSON CO AL.
CAA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUSPEND MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO GOING BELOW GUIDANCE.
Birmingham:
.LONG TERM...
SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP AS FAR NORTH AS CLANTON SATURDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AS A ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY LOOKS
COLD AND DRY.
Peachtree City:
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND...BRINGING MOISTURE TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO
INDUCE UPSLOPE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES OR
EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THICKNESSES
SUPPORT THIS WHILE WBZ'S DROP WELL INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL AGAIN RECOVER INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ROUNDS OUT AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN.
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#neversummer
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southerngale wrote:I certainly hope you get some snow, even if it's just a little.
I'm not too optimistic right now, but thanks. I'm pretty far south(below Birmingham and Atlanta), so I'll be surprised if I see anything, but I must say, the shortwave looks POWERFUL. Moisture just looks really limited right now.
O/T but it's going to be very cold tonight. Expected to be around 22-23 in the morning... about 12-14 hours below freezing.

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#neversummer
This is the 5:15 pm AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA UNDER NEAR-ZONAL WESTERLY...GENERALLY CONFLUENT... FLOW ALOFT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIE OFF... AND A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES REALLY BOTTOM OUT...INTO THE LOW 20S IN SOME AREAS...AND TO LOW 30S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY... DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATIONS...GENERALLY UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND DEEP TROUGH BEGINS BUILDING IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...SKIES HERE REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 20S AND 30S.
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND...BRINGING MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO INDUCE UPSLOPE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS WHILE WBZ`S DROP WELL INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL AGAIN RECOVER INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROUNDS OUT AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN. AFTER THIS...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN AND IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT WILL HAPPEN. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRING A CAD WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM BOTH A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND ONE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. NOT SURE WHAT WILL COME OF THIS...FOR NOW JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN...WITH CONFIDENCE SO LOW...HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
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JenyEliza wrote:Brent wrote:Wednesday looks REALLY wet... maybe a lot of rain(especially Central and Southern AL/GA), but it doesn't look quite as cold as this past system, though I wouldn't rule out some ice in the Carolinas.
Wet, cold and miserable according to the latest AFD from Peachtree City.
Yep... the NWS has 60!!! here on Friday...


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#neversummer
Brent wrote:JenyEliza wrote:Brent wrote:Wednesday looks REALLY wet... maybe a lot of rain(especially Central and Southern AL/GA), but it doesn't look quite as cold as this past system, though I wouldn't rule out some ice in the Carolinas.
Wet, cold and miserable according to the latest AFD from Peachtree City.
Yep... the NWS has 60!!! here on Friday...I think we are about to go into a boring, dry, and above normal on the temperatures pattern(by the end of the week) Break out the shorts...

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JenyEliza wrote:Hey Brent...looks like the GFS is predicting another near miss for us! On Christmas Eve no less.![]()
Don't get disappointed yet(it's two weeks out)... it's onto something. The cold air is in place this time. The 6z run showed no storm and close to normal... so this is better.
Oh and look at Christmas Day...


Last edited by Brent on Sat Dec 10, 2005 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
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It is humorous watching you two discuss winter. I share your pain here in Charlotte so far, it is early. We moved from Fredericksburg and have watched them get two storms last week alone. NWS here calling for winter precip Wed-Wed eve, do not expect any real accumulations so far.
Christmas eve system looks interesting albeit two weeks out. Do not give up on it yet, it is not accounting for any CAD.
Christmas eve system looks interesting albeit two weeks out. Do not give up on it yet, it is not accounting for any CAD.
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JenyEliza???
I've been out since 1pm and just saw this.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005
GAZ001>009-011>016-110715-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
210 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005
LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
I've been out since 1pm and just saw this.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005
GAZ001>009-011>016-110715-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
210 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005
LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
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#neversummer
They're saying flurries are a possiblility tonight...I'll believe it when I see it.
Here's the current AFD

Here's the current AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
450 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS TODAY SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MOISTURE. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH BETTER MOISTURE. HAVE LEFT SNOW FLURRIES IN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE UP TO ONE INCH. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES PUTS OUR AREA INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. SOME WEDGING INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE.
&&
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Lowpressure wrote:It is humorous watching you two discuss winter. I share your pain here in Charlotte so far, it is early. We moved from Fredericksburg and have watched them get two storms last week alone. NWS here calling for winter precip Wed-Wed eve, do not expect any real accumulations so far.
Christmas eve system looks interesting albeit two weeks out. Do not give up on it yet, it is not accounting for any CAD.
We're pathetic, aren't we?



Here's to snow for all of us.....

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Latest AFD
and Special Weather Statement for far North GA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
GFS/ETA STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES...EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO PICK UP ABOUT ONE INCH OF SNOW IF ANY SNOW DOES FALL. THE S/W KICKS OUT TOMORROW MORNING LEAVING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS THE H5 FLOW GOES FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
INTERESTING SITUATION SETTING UP FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST...IE WEDGE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVING GA A COLD WET RAIN. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF DRY SPELL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE H5 FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A SEVERAL S/W MOVING IN THE FLOW. THE NEXT ONE IS SET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED WEDGE AND A COLD RAIN.
&&
and Special Weather Statement for far North GA.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2005
GAZ001>009-011>016-120700-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND
155 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2005
LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES TO EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROME TO GAINESVILLE...AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH. THIS COULD MAKE ROADS SLICK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
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