Snow for Texas

f5 · #341 Postby f5 » Sun Dec 11, 2005 6:56 pm

Rita made landfall on the state line 2 1/2 months ago.Bastardi said she was going to kick the dickens out of the Houston/Galveston area

cajungal · #342 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Dec 11, 2005 7:04 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Come on it's almost winter let's not talk about cat 5's in the gulf right now! We all need a LONG break from that.

Anyway hopefully JB is right about another possible snow event. We had snow on new years day two years in a row (1/1/01 and 1/1/02) so stranger things have happened!

The snow event on New Years Day must of totally missed us here in the Houma-Thibodaux area. Because I never, ever rembered it snowing here on New Years Day ever. And for anyone who is bashing Joe B, give him a break. He is not God. He can't be right every single time. Winter weather events are very difficult to forecast on the Gulf Coast because it is so rare.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #343 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Sun Dec 11, 2005 7:14 pm

f5 wrote:Rita made landfall on the state line 2 1/2 months ago.Bastardi said she was going to kick the dickens out of the Houston/Galveston area

So did the NWS. Except they had it hitting Matagorda Bay.

KatDaddy · #344 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:26 am

Houston-Galveston Forecast Disc:

850 TEMPS RUNNING AROUND -2 IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH
VERY STRONG OVERRUNNING AND JET ROARING OVERHEAD AND LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF A 120 KNOTS. **IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
A WINTERY WEATHER MESS SATURDAY MORNING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.** AND IF THIS PANS OUT TEMPERATURES
WILL MUCH COLDER THAN MY GRIDS TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. I AM UNDERCUTTING THE MEX NUMBERS AND AM NEAR THE LOWER
DISTRIBUTION OF THE ENSEMBLES. STAY TUNED THIS COULD GET VERY MESSY.

Extremeweatherguy · #345 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:35 am

the NWS is mentioning this threat much earlier then they did with the last system. This may mean we have more of a chance of getting some exciting weather here in Houston out of it! It would be great if it was all snow...leave the sleet and frz. rain to someone else, a nice fluffy 2-4" is all I need.

Extremeweatherguy · #346 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:52 am

Joe Bastardi is saying this could be one of the top ten coldest Decembers dating all the way back to the 1800s. He also said that this could be the coldest end to December since 1989 and that he expects a pre-christmas blizzard from Texas all the way to the NE. If you thought the last arctic shot was cold...just wait guys this one may be a lot worse!

KatDaddy · #347 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:20 am

A NE TX Blizzard............now come on. I will believe it when I see it.

Does Joe B think we will see snow for Houston-Galveston?????

#348 Postby **jeff** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:23 am

Changeable pattern for TX over the next week, and then the weekend into Christmas week looks extremely interesting.

Warm air advection will crank into full swing late today and Tuesday as low latitude upper low ejects toward the plains. Psuedo-warm front should return northward Tuesday with highly modified Gulf air mass spreading across the region. 60 degree dewpoints should return to the coastal areas by late Tuesday evening. Pacific storm system and cold front combo will sweep through TX Wednesday with widespread rain and thunderstorms likely. Given strong shear profiles severe weather may be possible Wednesday and later forecast may need to include a wind damage threat. We should also see a decent amount of rain with this system given a saturating profile.

Cool Pacific air mass gain control Thursday and then come the big changes.

Weekend into Christmas Week:

Large scale pattern amplification noted in the ECMWF last week as spread to the GFS now and supports a massive arctic air outbreak into the US. West coast US ridge builds all the way into northern Siberia and the Arctic circle with a well developed large scale downstream trough with a 1050mb to 1060mb high pushing south out of the Arctic. Timing of the arrival of this bitter cold air mass into the US is the main question. ECMWF shows the arctic front arriving late Friday or early Saturday in TX while the GFS is late Sunday and early Monday. Timing of the front will determine the P-type for this weekend. With a 120kt sub-tropical jet overhead all of the area under an intense overrunning pattern there is little question that the area will be wet. Temp. profiles for the ECMWF are frozen through the entire air column while the GFS is freezing near the surface (even with the arctic air). Given the setup currently offered by the models a mix of winter precipitation is possible this weekend across much of TX including SE TX.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #349 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:35 am

KatDaddy wrote:A NE TX Blizzard............now come on. I will believe it when I see it.

Does Joe B think we will see snow for Houston-Galveston?????

Sunday he was saying a repeat of last Christmas snows for S.Texas or at the least an ice event. Where in S.Texas he didn't say. But this far out he did call the snow event down here correctly.

#350 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:42 am

Ok Kelarie ... get out the snow shovel and snow blower!! :lol:

Kelarie · #351 Postby **Kelarie** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:48 am

WOO HOO, oh those are the words I have been longing to hear. You have made me a happy woman. Now if you can get the state to give us off time for bad weather :wink:

Kel

Now on a serious side, how long does this weather look like it will be lasting??

#352 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:50 am

Kelarie wrote:WOO HOO, oh those are the words I have been longing to hear. You have made me a happy woman. Now if you can get the state to give us off time for bad weather

Kel

Now on a serious side, how long does this weather look like it will be lasting??

Looks like most of next week, actually. Cold to very/bitterly cold and good chance of precip this coming weekend. As Jeff indicates in his previous post, the European model shows a frozen air column entirely which would mean snow and none of that freezing rain crap. Wouldn't that be a hoot!

I have to admit that I'm getting excited about this possibility.

#353 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:03 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi is saying this could be one of the top ten coldest Decembers dating all the way back to the 1800s. He also said that this could be the coldest end to December since 1989 and that he expects a pre-christmas blizzard from Texas all the way to the NE. If you thought the last arctic shot was cold...just wait guys this one may be a lot worse!

The system this weekend just might be the real deal.

Just might lose my landscaping this winter after all.

But like I said above Joe B. tends to overhype TX cold. I've been reading his column since 1999 and at least a dozen times he has said the above. Still have not topped 1989. He's said at least a half a dozen times a cold outbreak would be as bad as 1899 and that hasn't happened yet either. Yes, sometimes he will nail one from far out just going by the Euro instead of the GFS, but more often than not if you will be disappointed by his promises of arctic blasts that fail to materialize.

Website · #354 Postby **Brent** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:05 am

KatDaddy wrote:A NE TX Blizzard............now come on. I will believe it when I see it.

LOL... me too.

BTW: Where is NE TX??? I always thought Houston/Galveston/Beaumont was SE TX.

#355 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:22 am

Brent wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:A NE TX Blizzard............now come on. I will believe it when I see it.

LOL... me too.

BTW: Where is NE TX??? I always thought Houston/Galveston/Beaumont was SE TX.

I posted a thread in Hurricane Season labeled Texas Geographic Regions. People kept calling Houston/Beaumont "NE Texas" before Rita hit. It's not; Houston-Beaumont is SE Texas.

NE Texas is the region around Texarkana, Clarksville, Sulphur Springs, Atlanta, etc.

Also, the DFW Metroplex is not considered NE Texas either - it is "North Central Texas"

cctxhurricanewatcher · #356 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 11:34 am

The geographic regions in Texas have always been out of whack. Some how Amarillo is considered West Texas but it sits further north than DFW. San Marcos was home of Southwest Texas State unitl they just recently dropped Southwest from it. Southwest Texas would be Del Rio and Eagle Pass. And the South Texas College of Law is in Houston which is in SE Texas.
:raincloud:

cctxhurricanewatcher · #357 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:04 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi is saying this could be one of the top ten coldest Decembers dating all the way back to the 1800s. He also said that this could be the coldest end to December since 1989 and that he expects a pre-christmas blizzard from Texas all the way to the NE. If you thought the last arctic shot was cold...just wait guys this one may be a lot worse!

The system this weekend just might be the real deal. Just might lose my landscaping this winter after all.

But like I said above Joe B. tends to overhype TX cold. I've been reading his column since 1999 and at least a dozen times he has said the above. Still have not topped 1989. He's said at least a half a dozen times a cold outbreak would be as bad as 1899 and that hasn't happened yet either. Yes, sometimes he will nail one from far out just going by the Euro instead of the GFS, but more often than not if you will be disappointed by his promises of arctic blasts that fail to materialize.

I'll make it a point to see if I can pick up the RGV Ag radio station on my car radio Tuedsay morning to see if he is hyping this cold snap potential to 1989 levels. If he is, on that radio station, I would tend to not think it is -removed-. 1989, 1983, 1962 etc. are very four letter words to farming and raching interest down there and they take it seriously.

#358 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:04 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
Brent wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:A NE TX Blizzard............now come on. I will believe it when I see it.

LOL... me too.

BTW: Where is NE TX??? I always thought Houston/Galveston/Beaumont was SE TX.

I posted a thread in Hurricane Season labeled Texas Geographic Regions. People kept calling Houston/Beaumont "NE Texas" before Rita hit. It's not; Houston-Beaumont is SE Texas.

NE Texas is the region around Texarkana, Clarksville, Sulphur Springs, Atlanta, etc.

Yes, you are right; some of the regions even overlap. In most circles, West Texas in generally the whole western half of the state, except west of the Pecos which is called "Far West Texas" or the "Trans-Pecos" depending on the source. To compound things, areas such as Abilene and Wichita Fallas are considered "Northwest Texas" but panhandle cities such as Dalhart & Amarillo are never referred to as "NW Texas" - just the "Panhandle" or "West Texas". If you go a little further south to Lubbock, you're in the "South Plains".

It's not unique to Texas though. Somehow the University of South Florida is located on the north side Tampa.....due west of the University of Central Florida in Orlando....

ETXHAMXYL · #359 Postby **ETXHAMXYL** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:29 pm

The Local noon met on ABC here in NTX says that after this upcoming weekend things get much colder and interesting. He didn't give much more info, but hinted very strong as to a big change and the look on his face wasn't a happpy one, more of a concerned look.
Usually this met never hints but just tells it like it is for the forecast period and nothing beyond that so I found that quiet interesting.
So Ive heard more on South Texas with possible frozen what about us here in the NTX and ETX? Is this a long cold pattern which could be like 1989? Are we talking a settled in Cold spell to stay?
Nothing is hinting cold on the 15 day forecasts from Accuweather, Weather Channel or the little local weather sites. The NWS just barely hinted and the local mets...so mmmm wonder how long it will take for everyone to hop on board a POLAR EXPRESS?

PTrackerLA · #360 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:58 pm

Joe B's hyping the the mention of it by the Houston/Galveston NWS has definately caught my attention concerning the upcoming weekend. It appears as though something is brewing but we should know alot more in a few days. In my opinion, there's no better time to have wintry weather in the south than right before Christmas!

Snow for Texas

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