Snow for Texas

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looking at the afternoonsAFD's, it looks like most offices so far don't want to touch this potential Arctic outbreak with a ten foot poll. The using the term "below seasonal values" Now they wonder why so many individuals and private businesses are looking elsewhere for long range weather info.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the afternoonsAFD's, it looks like most offices so far don't want to touch this potential Arctic outbreak with a ten foot poll. The using the term "below seasonal values" Now they wonder why so many individuals and private businesses are looking elsewhere for long range weather info.

The NWS in Houston is completely different...here is their afternoon discussion:

THINK PREVIOUS FCSTER WAS ON THE MARK WITH COLDER TEMPS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...AM
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE FRI OR SAT. AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL OVERRIDE NE SFC WINDS ON
SATURDAY. SE TX WILL LIE IN A RIGHT REAR QUAD AND WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACING ON SATURDAY...THINK RAIN WILL AGAIN
BE LIKELY. THE GFS FOCUS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF AND NOGAPS FOCUS MORE THE PRECIP OVER EAST TEXAS.
CONSISTENCY FAVORS THE ECMWF AND HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.
SPEAKING OF THE ECMWF...HAVE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE DUE TO 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW ZER0 ON SUN AND MON. IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHO IT IS A LONG WAYS
OFF...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS is giving it some press. They aren't ready to bite on the Euro just yet, but acknowledge the possibility of wintry precip is there if the Euro verifies.

IN THE EXTENDED...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
MODELS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA...BUT DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE SUBSEQUENT TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO ITS SOLUTION OF A
MUCH DEEPER AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHICH
REPRESENTS A CLASSIC MCFARLAND PATTERN. THIS WOULD SPELL FOR
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD OUTBREAK AND WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
WEEKEND. GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND THEREFORE
DO NOT BRING AS MUCH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. BOTH SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRI-SAT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

SINCE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GFS/UKMET THINKING BUT NUDGE TEMPERATURES FRI-MON A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE. WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF COLD RAIN INTO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND
WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN
PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

My post was based on three or four AFD's including Brownsvilles who with the old timers that used to be in charge down there, would be yelling the loudest. 1989 is a bad omen for the Ag industry down there.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus is talking about it. Not ready to bite, but they are full aware of the potential.


RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS LEFT LITTLE TO BE
DESIRED ESP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS
EXHIBITED WILD RUN TO RUN SWINGS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED A TREMENDOUS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK DURING THE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS W/ H85 TEMPS NEAR
-8 DEG C ALONG THE COAST AT ONE POINT (SIMILAR TO THE 83/89
FREEZES??)...BUT NOW 6Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED WAY INDICATING
MUCH WEAKER FRONTS. ECMWF HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND W/ INDICATIONS OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
CANADIAN ALSO POINTS TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT BUT KEEPS THE COLDEST
AIR NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...MOST
MED RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE INDICATING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MID-UPR FLOW W/ RIDGING WELL UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THIS POINTS TOWARD ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC PUNCH INTO THE REGION AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. ALL
SPECULATION AT THIS POINT AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE RUNS PLAY
OUT.

[Johnny]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
130600-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
333 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005

...MID-WEEK THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...

A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S DUE TO THICK CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WILL AFFECT TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...
GENERALLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO COLDSPRING LINE ON SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK AND MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGE WITH
TIME. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE ONSET OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. IF TRAVELING AWAY
FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS...YOU MIGHT WANT TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from Joe Bastardi calls for significant snow/ice in Texas by Monday morning. He says the worst of it may be from a line from Texarcana to Waco and then southward. If this were to play out, then an intersting 4-8 days may be ahead. How crazy would it be if Brownsville saw snow for a 2nd year in row (considering that before last Christmas, the only other time was in 1895).

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

See it to believe it, but I guess anything is possible.

[gboudx]

latest from Joe Bastardi calls for significant snow/ice in Texas by Monday morning. He says the worst of it may be from a line from Texarcana to Waco and then southward. If this were to play out, then an intersting 4-8 days may be ahead. How crazy would it be if Brownsville saw snow for a 2nd year in row (considering that before last Christmas, the only other time was in 1895).

So DFW just gets cold?

[Portastorm]

latest from Joe Bastardi calls for significant snow/ice in Texas by Monday morning. He says the worst of it may be from a line from Texarcana to Waco and then southward. If this were to play out, then an intersting 4-8 days may be ahead. How crazy would it be if Brownsville saw snow for a 2nd year in row (considering that before last Christmas, the only other time was in 1895).

So DFW just gets cold?

According to JB, not just cold ... but decent shot at record-breaking cold for north Texas. We're probably looking at another overruning event except this time the jet would be further south and thus the heavier precip would be further south in Texas ... unlike last week's event.

[southerngale]

See it to believe it, but I guess anything is possible.

That's how I feel. I so want to believe it though. Southeast Texas had significant snowfall events way back in 1895 and then again in 1899 so maybe 2 years in a row isn't so far-fetched. hehe

On Christmas Eve last year, I got snowflakes and you could see it on the ground, on cars and rooftops but it wasn't much and not measurable...nothing like what they got a little to my west. There were snowmen on Galveston Island and all the way down to Brownsville!

[gboudx]

According to JB, not just cold ... but decent shot at record-breaking cold for north Texas. We're probably looking at another overruning event except this time the jet would be further south and thus the heavier precip would be further south in Texas ... unlike last week's event.

Well that sucks. If it's gonna be cold, then let there at least be sleet and/or snow with it. Otherwise, highs in the 60's will do just fine.

[Portastorm]

According to JB, not just cold ... but decent shot at record-breaking cold for north Texas. We're probably looking at another overruning event except this time the jet would be further south and thus the heavier precip would be further south in Texas ... unlike last week's event.

Well that sucks. If it's gonna be cold, then let there at least be sleet and/or snow with it. Otherwise, highs in the 60's will do just fine.

To be fair to JB, he does suggest that the northern fringe of the precip shield would be snow ... whether that includes y'all or not, I dunno. I would assume so.

How's 2-3 inches of snow and then record-breaking cold? Will that work for ya?

[vbhoutex]

Even the local OCM's are startig to hint at the possibility of an all snow event for us sometime after Saturday. It is difinitely looking to be interesting for the next week and a half of so with a few shots of cold, with some of it being record breaking and the southern jet set up in such a way that much of TX could see wintery precip., possibly more in the central to Southern areas of the state. Will defintiely be watching the mosdels as they flip and flop and especially what may be starting this weekend.

[freeport_texas22]

from a friend on a weather board in houston....

It's not often that I might start a thread about the potential for sleet/snow here in southeast Texas. Usually, I'm trying to explain why it won't sleet or snow here. However, I do think that it is looking more possible that we could actually see the "S" word here in Houston Sunday/Monday. That is, if the ECMWF is even close to correct. Take a gander at the 12Z (6am CST) ECMWF forecast. Mouse over the times in the upper left to advance the map from day 1 through day 7:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

In particular, look at the map for 6am Monday:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f168.gif

Note the red dashed line in the map on the upper left. That's the 5400 meter sfc-500mb thickness line. You don't need to know what that means, technically, but generally the snow line is well south of that red dashed line. A good rule of thumb for us is that the rain/snow line is one line out ahead of that red dashed line, the 5460 meter thickness line. So that shows the air is cold enough for snow all the way down to Victoria on Monday morning.

Now look at the map in the upper left, the 500 mb (18,000ft) contour map. Note the axis of low pressure is well to our northwest and a disturbance is rotating around the bottom of the trof. That's a sign that another wave will be developing along the cold front on Monday morning (translation - precipitation likely here) with temperatures cold enough for snow here.

Now look at the lower 2 maps indicating relative humidity (moisture) in the lower to mid parts of the atmosphere. Plenty of moisture available.

So we have air cold enough for snow, a disturbance moving across the cold air to produce lifting, and plenty of moisture to squeeze out precipitation. All this points to frozen precipitaion possible in Houston on Sunday/Monday.

The ECMWF has been consistent in this forecast (the general idea) for 2-3 days now, though it wasn't as bullish on frozen precip chances until the last few runs. The American model, on the other hand, is completely lost. And that's the model that the NWS and Weather Channel are following with their temperature forecasts. The GFS did absolutely terribly with the last event, as it just can't handle Arctic air. It's clearly out to lunch with the coming weekend's Arctic air. The NWS is forecasting a high in the 50-52 range here Sunday/Monday, when it could be as cold as 34-36 for the highs, maybe even colder.

Bottom line -- it's by no means a certainty, but I think that we may have a reasonable chance of seeing frozen precipitation here in Houston on Sunday/Monday. It certainly looks very cold, regardless. Let's see if the ECMWF continues the current trend over the next 2-3 runs (every 12 hours), and if the GFS ever gets a clue in the coming days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

this event continues to look more and more promising by the hour.

[Tyler]

Hi, new person here. I've lurked for a very long time and have finally decided to sign up. I post alot over on the CH.11 KHOU weather forums under this username.

At any rate, this upcoming event for the Houston area is getting more and more interesting by the minute. That analysis above was by wxman57. And boy, is it ever interesting. I have to drive home sunday from Texarkana back to Kingwood, I hope I don't get caught in an icy mess! Can't wait for the 0z Euro.

[Tyler]

this event continues to look more and more promising by the hour.

I have goosebumps just thinking about the possibilities. Two snowtorms, a year apart in Houston. You've got to be kidding me!

[Yankeegirl]

Gee, so like if we get snow again for Christmas this year again then next year Im going to expect it.... But I am keeping my fingers crossed for the snow again... Today was in the 70's, thats just not Christmas....

[Tyler]

Gee, so like if we get snow again for Christmas this year again then next year Im going to expect it.... But I am keeping my fingers crossed for the snow again... Today was in the 70's, thats just not Christmas....

LOL. Yeah, I think its funny that we seem to have these snowy potentials just when Christmas arrives. It sure puts me into the holiday spirit!