MID-ATLANTIC Storm Thread 2005-06

[Fodie77]

Is this a big snow event for you people like the Feb 2003 President day storm II? How big is this storm?

Oh, man, not even close.

The 2003 Presidents Day Storm put down a wide swath of 20-24" snow throughout the mid-atlantic region from northern VA northward. It was one of the biggest storms in history for the region. At the time, I was a sophmore in high school and I was out for a whole week.

This storm is gonna bring around 8 in. at MOST DC northward, with an icy mix SW of there. This is just the first substantial storm of the year. Sunday was pretty much a bust for most people.

[angelwing]

Title: Winter Storm Alert
Interchanges: 00 - All Interchanges - 00 - All Interchanges
Mileposts: 0 - 0
Direction : ALL
Report(Type) : Update
Date/Time: 12/9/2005 4:34:03 AM
Currently, heavy snow is falling across the entire Turnpike system.
Maintenance crews are salting and plowing the roadway surfaces as needed.
Motorists are urged to delay travel plans if possible. If you must drive, use extreme caution, stay alert and drive accordingly for conditions.
Motorists are advised to use caution and do not attempt to pass maintenance vehicles. Also, watch for possible accidents, disabled vehicles and lane blockage.

[arlwx]

In Arlington VA at 515 am:

1.7 inches of snow, but raindrops falling. 27 degrees. Ice formation, anyone?

[lester]

School is closed for me so this....is a snow day

[WindRunner]

School is closed for me so this....is a snow day

Same here, even though all we got was 1.5" of SLEET! Radar estimates would have given us 6-8" of snow, which I would have taken over the sleet any day! But we're still out of school, and that's all that matters.

[terstorm1012]

8" and no snow day. I went to work a half-hour late because apparently there WAS a two hour delay but noone called me to say so, so I just went---I get to work and noone is here.

I realized the best thing about this though. As I never learned to drive, I have no car to shovel out, scrape, clear off, fill with antifreeze. Just a short walk to the bus!

[Fodie77]

The University opened at 1pm today. (Still have to take that final at 1:05)



I know it's early, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on for late next week. Stay safe everybody!

[Fodie77]

Long term outlook for SW VA:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SEVERAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE WAY. SHORTWAVE TROF STILL
ADVERTISED TO DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY LATE SUN...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION
AS IT PASSES. FORCING STILL LOOKS QUITE STRONG ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH GOING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LIKELY TO SHUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE
IT GETS TOO FAR EAST. AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...SYSTEM NOW
ADVERTISED TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH AND BEARS WATCHING AS STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO MOVE FARTHER EAST OVER THE CWA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING UPR TROF COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORY AND DEEP MOISTURE (ROUGHLY 6K FT OR
BETTER) SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY TUES. WILL LIKELY SEE
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE FAVORED AREAS AND
AS SUCH HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE WESTERNMOST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE...PATTERN LOOKS TO RELOAD ONCE AGAIN FOR MIDWEEK AS YET
ANOTHER TROF BEGINS TO DIG OUT OF THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS
SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT REMAINS RATHER LOW ATTM...HOWEVER
CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO LEND CREDENCE TO A WETTER
SCENARIO AND GIVEN SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST EVENTS THIS
WINTER...THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED 30
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW AS PRECIP TYPE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. LATEST
GFS/DGEX/CANADIAN ALL DEPICT DAMMING TYPE/OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR
THE AREA...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH BEFORE EVENT UNFOLDS.



Long term outlook for DC/DC Metro area out of Sterling:

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...TODAYS MODEL SUITE CONSISTENCY IS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD TURN ON THE UPSLOPE/LAKE
EFFECT MECHANISM FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR CALIFORNIA DISLODGES
AND PROGRESSES EAST (RESPONDING TO ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN CANADA). THIS MAY BE THE SETUP FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATE
DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE (NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE LAST ONE).

OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS
SHOWS A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC AS A SECOND TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN EVOLVED TO AN UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AS
A STRONG JET CROSSES THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 140-165KT JET EXTENDS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND WAVE IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1014MB CYCLONE NEAR
NEW YORK CITY...WITH A COLD/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
SOUTH (JUST OFFSHORE) THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SECOND 1014MB
CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE A 1036MB ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MODELS...THE 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z UKMET/EUROPEAN
WERE EXAMINED. MODELS ARE REGROUPING AFTER EXHIBITING VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE THE PAST FEW DAYS. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A TROUGH
PASSES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EAST
DURING THE MIDWEEK...AHEAD OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN
CANADA.

ENSEMBLE DATA...00Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNCERTAINLY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE (AS HALF OF THE MEMBERS
SHOW A PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE OTHER HALF ARE ABOUT 24
HOURS SLOWER). RIDGING TAKES PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK...WHILE THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO COMBINE WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE
GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE TO FORMULATE A NEW TROUGH APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND.

MEAN HIGHS FROM THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS ARE IN THE MID 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE
40-45 DEGREE RANGE LATE NEXT WORK WEEK. MEAN LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MEAN POPS RISE INTO CHANCE CATEGORY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (AND WITHIN CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR KEKN).

FORECAST RATIONALE...MODELS COMING TOGETHER IN THE LONG TERM...WITH
UPSLOPE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE NEXT TROUGH. BY THE
LATER PERIODS...SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
WINTER EVENT. KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT/TIMING INCREASE.




Both discussions touch on the possibility of a late week event on the horizon. Certainly bears watching.

[WindRunner]

The University opened at 1pm today. (Still have to take that final at 1:05)



I know it's early, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on for late next week. Stay safe everybody!

I was looking at that, and the one in the 22nd-23rd time frame, but both will be cold rain events (as of now) for most of the east, with the exception of the mountains. Well, at least according to the GFS, but that's not saying much right now. It's screwed up on both of the past two storms.

[Fodie77]

The University opened at 1pm today. (Still have to take that final at 1:05)



I know it's early, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on for late next week. Stay safe everybody!

I was looking at that, and the one in the 22nd-23rd time frame, but both will be cold rain events (as of now) for most of the east, with the exception of the mountains. Well, at least according to the GFS, but that's not saying much right now. It's screwed up on both of the past two storms.

Yeah, you can see how close it's going to be right there. Let's hope the "magic 540" line drops a little more. Nothing's worse than a cold rain.

[Fodie77]

First solid discussion of the Wed. night-Thursday event out of NWS Balt./DC:

Strong srly advection regime should begin on Wednesday but precipitation holds
off until Wednesday night and mainly in the south. GFS seems the way to go
here with some run to run consistency noted. As discussed on the
previous middle shift...with wedge in place and srly flow Wednesday night...mixed
precipitation almost a certainty with anything that forms. For now will
hold probability of precipitation in the low chance category but will mention mix of
zr/ip/sn. Then on Thursday...should see as transition to all rain in the
far southeast with a higher chance of probability of precipitation due to the possible persistent
onshore flow and warm advection off the relatively warm water. Mixed precipitation
will still be possible on Thursday for most of the remaining area though.


Gfsx MOS probability of precipitation are very high for the period Wednesday night-Friday night. We have
bumped our probability of precipitation up to 50 on Thursday and added small chance probability of precipitation on Friday
as well...and we'll hold off on anything else until more certainty.

[WindRunner]

And LWX continues to make me happy!

(excerpt)

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABORAD BY MID-WEEK.
THE CORE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE (1037 MB) WILL BE SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...AS A DOUBLE BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
US FROM THE WEST. ONE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION EARLY ON
THURSDAY...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE YESTERDAY/S GUIDANCE. I
LEFT THE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY IN CASE FUTURE MODEL RUN/S SLOW THIS
SYSTEM DOWN FURTHER.

WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE 850MB/925MB TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX BAG OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF
POSSIBLE. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPPER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

[fasteddy77]

Does anyone see a significant icing event happenning for anyone outside of the applachian mountains over the next couple of days??

[Lowpressure]

Looks like watches are about to be issued North and West of Charlotte for mainly icing. DPs and wet bulbs are favorable and wedge digging down, NWS waiting on GFS for QPF alignment before issuing possible watches for I-85 corridor and Charlotte metro. Currently 27.9 on the ole patio.

[Fodie77]

I'll be heading back home to Winchester tomorrow night...just in time for what could be a significant icing event in the Shenandoah valley. Looks like a serious CAD event could be unfolding.

[Jim Hughes]

I'll be heading back home to Winchester tomorrow night...just in time for what could be a significant icing event in the Shenandoah valley. Looks like a serious CAD event could be unfolding.

I hope you are wrong since I live just a bump up the road from you. We usually get the exact same weather pattern.


Jim

[angelwing]

Ok, last thing I heard this AM was that something was supposed to start tomorrow afternoon. Does anyone have an idea if it's snow or ice and about what time? I work in Burlington County NJ and live in the far NE in Philly and its a 45 mile drive one way and I hate to get stuck on the NJ or PA turnpike or one of the non-toll bridges.

Any info would be greatly appreciated!!!!

[WindRunner]

Ice Storm Warning now up for much of the mountains, this is for west of DC.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

MDZ004>006-VAZ041-042-150430-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.051215T1700Z-051216T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0001.051215T1200Z-051216T1200Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...LEESBURG
323 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED AN
ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO LIQUID. HOWEVER AT
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CAUSING RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT ON
ROADS...POWER LINES...AND TREES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
PROBLEMATIC ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES.

POWER OUTAGES AND EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...MORE COLD AIR
WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING EARLY FRIDAY.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.

[Fodie77]

Currently around 1/4 in. of ice, and the freezing rain continues to fall here in Winchester.

[truballer#1]

HEAVY RAIN!