AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
128 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE PRETTY BENIGN...HOWEVER
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME BIG CHANGES TAKE PLACE.
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A WEDGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF OVERRUNNING ALOFT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPS AND IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE SOME ICE. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW AND PRECIP FALLING SO HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.
GFS/ETA GRAPHICS SHOW THE SURFACE 32 DEGREE WET BULB TEMP FROM JUST SOUTH OF AHN TO SOUTH OF ATL BY 18Z WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH 00Z THU. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM KICKS OUT ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AND EXITS EARLY SUNDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN IT COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW.
Poss. Winter Precip for N. GA 12/14-15, again on Weekend
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Poss. Winter Precip for N. GA 12/14-15, again on Weekend
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They've got rain/sleet Wednesday Afternoon just across the stateline from where I'll be.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=154
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=154
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#neversummer
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>051-055-057-130800-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-CLAYTON-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON
247 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO GEORGIA AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR
SLEET NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO
COVINGTON...TO WARRENTON. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BLUE RIDGE...TO JASPER...TO
GAINESVILLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>051-055-057-130800-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-CLAYTON-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON
247 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO GEORGIA AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR
SLEET NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO ATLANTA...TO
COVINGTON...TO WARRENTON. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BLUE RIDGE...TO JASPER...TO
GAINESVILLE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.
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#neversummer
Forecast for my area:
Wednesday...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain...Sleet and freezing rain in the morning...Then a chance of rain and sleet in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Wednesday Night...Occasional rain and sleet. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds around 10 mph.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE PRETTY BENIGN...HOWEVER
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME BIG CHANGES TAKE PLACE. MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A WEDGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF OVERRUNNING ALOFT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPS AND IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE SOME ICE. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW AND PRECIP FALLING SO HAVE DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY. GFS/ETA GRAPHICS SHOW THE SURFACE 32 DEGREE WET BULB TEMP FROM JUST SOUTH OF AHN TO SOUTH OF ATL BY 18Z WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH 00Z THU. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
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- Location: Asheville, North Carolina
Our normally very conservative NWS group has even latched onto the possibility of winter weather in the south next week. Below is the forecast discussion. Don't get too excited JenyEliza!
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NEXT SUN AND MON IS LOOKING
QUITE INTERESTING AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN CONUS PER THE ECMWF...WHICH NCEP PREFERS. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR TRULY ARTIC AIR TO OOZE DOWN THE LEE SLOPES AS A SERIES OF
WEAK/WET IMPULSES LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF PATTERN FROM WHICH HIGH IMPACT WINTER EVENTS CAN RESULT HERE IN
THE SOUTH SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
EXTEDNED FORCAST ATTM.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NEXT SUN AND MON IS LOOKING
QUITE INTERESTING AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN CONUS PER THE ECMWF...WHICH NCEP PREFERS. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR TRULY ARTIC AIR TO OOZE DOWN THE LEE SLOPES AS A SERIES OF
WEAK/WET IMPULSES LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF PATTERN FROM WHICH HIGH IMPACT WINTER EVENTS CAN RESULT HERE IN
THE SOUTH SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
EXTEDNED FORCAST ATTM.
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The weatherman giveth, and the weatherman taketh away.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ACTIVE COLD SEASON PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF PROGRESSIVE EAST COAST UPR TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AND SW FLOW QUICK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE UPR TROUGH BY TUES NIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW TO PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SLIGHT CONFLUENT PATTERN INDICATING MODERATELY STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EAST AND SFC RIDGING INTO GA NEARLY A SURE BET.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NW GA SPREADING EAST BY SUNSET. PATTERN LOOKS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO SYSTEM LAST WEEK WHICH BROUGHT ONLY RAIN TO THE AREA WITH NO SLEET OR FZRA WHATSOEVER. SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS ONE SO FEEL R/IP WORTH MENTIONING IN NE ZONES. P-TYPE NOMAGRAMS USING 00Z GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP COULD START AS R/IP NEAR AHN BECOMING ALL RAIN BY 00Z THURS. REST OF AREA SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BUT CERTAINLY WORTH MONITORING. WAVE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THURS BEFORE MOVING OUT AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WEDGE SHOULD BE ERODED ENOUGH TO KEEP JUST RAIN GOING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THURS WILL ROTATE UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND NOW STATIONARY L/W TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. NICE OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. SOUTH OF 45N LATITUDE AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES THAT COME OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...STRAIGHT THROUGH THE ZONAL WESTERLIES.
NEXT S/W THAT GFS PROGS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND MAY TAP SOME OF THIS COLD LOW LEVEL AIR. GFS 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES AGAIN INDICATE PRECIP MAY FALL AS RAIN OR SLEET ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WONT BE A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN AS SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTH OF GA. GFS RUNS LIKELY TO WAFFLE IN AND OUT OF THIS SOLUTION BUT WITH ALL THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE NRN U.S. THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF RAIN OR SLEET TO SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN NRN 1/4 OF CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SNELSON
&&
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Steve Carpenter wrote:Our normally very conservative NWS group has even latched onto the possibility of winter weather in the south next week. Below is the forecast discussion. Don't get too excited JenyEliza!
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NEXT SUN AND MON IS LOOKING
QUITE INTERESTING AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN CONUS PER THE ECMWF...WHICH NCEP PREFERS. POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR TRULY ARTIC AIR TO OOZE DOWN THE LEE SLOPES AS A SERIES OF
WEAK/WET IMPULSES LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF PATTERN FROM WHICH HIGH IMPACT WINTER EVENTS CAN RESULT HERE IN
THE SOUTH SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO CHANGES MADE TO
EXTEDNED FORCAST ATTM.
Thanks for posting that!
What they're saying down here in the ATL area is that this will be very similar to the weather pattern last week. Nothing but cold, cold rain.
Up in Asheville, you stand a much better chance than we do.

BTW...just call me Jeny or Jen.

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We seem to be in a really good pattern for winter weather and with at least 3 shots coming up it would be a shame for us to get left out. I just hope we don't miss out on this pattern setup here in December. I'm sure it won't last forever. We'll have a big storm eventually plow into the Southwest and give the West a trough and the East a ridge. I just hope our warmup,whenever it happens, doesn't last too long. Just my .02.
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ga_ben wrote:We seem to be in a really good pattern for winter weather and with at least 3 shots coming up it would be a shame for us to get left out. I just hope we don't miss out on this pattern setup here in December. I'm sure it won't last forever. We'll have a big storm eventually plow into the Southwest and give the West a trough and the East a ridge. I just hope our warmup,whenever it happens, doesn't last too long. Just my .02.
So far our chances in December don't look good. Of course, historically speaking, most of our winter weather doesn't arrive until January--so our hopes could be just a bit premature.

Whatever the case, I am just ready for a really GOOD dumpage of snow this year. It's been several years since we've seen accumulating snow--and that's pretty unusual.
Jen
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