Snow for Texas

f5 · #381 Postby f5 » Mon Dec 12, 2005 8:16 pm

i would be cautious about any frozen stuff south of I-20 if you live in Amarillo your chances of precip being in the frozen form is pretty much a given

Extremeweatherguy · #382 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 8:29 pm

looking at the latest run of the GFS on accuweather.com professional...it seems like it wants to bring two storms into the area. The first would come on Sat/Sun. with a snow/rain line down to about Houston. The second would come by Mon/Tues. with a rain/snow line well down into south Texas. Starting to look interesting. Keep in mind that the GFS was not even showing a real good threat of snow earlier, so now that even it has jumped on the band wagon makes me wonder if this could really be a serious threat. So far we have pretty much all the sources (models & forecasters) saying that there is a chance of wintry weather. Usually the NWS does not mention a threat like this until 1-2 days out, but here they are at about 5-7 days out already hinting at the subject.

#383 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 8:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:To be fair to JB, he does suggest that the northern fringe of the precip shield would be snow ... whether that includes y'all or not, I dunno. I would assume so.

How's 2-3 inches of snow and then record-breaking cold? Will that work for ya?

That would work. Or at least help take the sting off the high electric and gas bills sure to follow.

southerngale · #384 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 8:56 pm

Tyler wrote:Hi, new person here. I've lurked for a very long time and have finally decided to sign up. I post alot over on the CH.11 KHOU weather forums under this username.

At any rate, this upcoming event for the Houston area is getting more and more interesting by the minute. That analysis above was by wxman57. And boy, is it ever interesting. I have to drive home sunday from Texarkana back to Kingwood, I hope I don't get caught in an icy mess! Can't wait for the 0z Euro.

Welcome to Storm2k!

The friend freeport_texas22 referred to was wxman57 on the KHOU board? If so, wow. I hadn't seen his thoughts on it yet, but like he said, he's usually explaining why it won't sleet or snow in Southeast Texas.

freeport_texas22 · #385 Postby **freeport_texas22** » Mon Dec 12, 2005 9:01 pm

yeah he always lets everyone's hopes down about NOT getting it but it sure was werid when he posted it MIGHT happen...

Kelarie · #386 Postby **Kelarie** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 8:46 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131930-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
600 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

...CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COLDER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING LOW ALOFT COMING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN WAKE OF A COOL FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SEVERAL COOL DAYS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO COME MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

#387 Postby **jeff** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 9:21 am

Large scale upper air pattern amplification along the US west coast spelling big troubles for TX with strong undercutting sub-tropical jet stream.

Winter weather will return in full force this weekend with quite an interesting Christmas week shaping up.

Short Term:

Low level return flow will begin to crank by late morning as low pressure moves into W TX. Moisture will be on the increase through tonight into Wednesday with increasing jet stream dynamics. Showers and thunderstorms should begin out west early Wednesday and spread across the entire area during the day. The severe potential looks low and would be mainly confined to the coast where the best instability will be found. Heavy rainfall is a better threat given forecast PWS around 1.7-1.8 inches which is nearly 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Overall average amounts should range from .5 to 1.5 inches with isolated 2.0-2.5 inches.

Extended:

The troubles begin Friday as first polar front moves into TX from the north. Massive ridging along the west coast pushing well into the Arctic Ocean will unlock a very cold Siberian air mass. Modified polar front reaches SE TX early Saturday and temps. will go nowhere. Strong isentrophic upglide pattern ensues as energy drops into a developing longwave trough over the central and southern US. This will instigate widespread rainfall and cloud cover on top of the cooling air mass at the surface. ECMWF is quite cool during this period and suggest the precip. will change to freezing rain and sleet over portions of our area late Saturday and Sunday. I am not ready to bite just yet on P-type issues Sunday, but if the GFS continues it’s cooling trend and falls more inline with the ECMWF look out.

Deep central US long wave trough is established by Monday. Very cold arctic air mass spills out of Canada on Sunday and reaches TX Monday. Undercutting sub-tropical jet stream remains very active with polar and sub-tropical jets phasing over TX. NOGAPS tries to cut-off an upper low just to our west while the rest of the guidance maintains a marginal cut-off low with cold air in place. Minus the GFS which appears way too warm given the upper air pattern the rest of the guidance shows a favorable profile for frozen precipitation Monday through Wednesday. Short waves rotating through the deep trough may spell periods of a winter mix for the period Monday through Wednesday.

Given the fact that the TX coast had a record breaking snow event last Christmas, I am very hard pressed to buy into the solutions of a potential significant snowfall a few days before Christmas 2005. However, should some of the model solutions being offered verify, much of the state including SE TX will see accumulating winter precipitation next week. We shall revisit the possibilities later with growing confidence per newer guidance runs.

Extremeweatherguy · #388 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 9:38 am

looks good, thanks for the update. Hope it all plays out.

Extremeweatherguy · #389 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 9:57 am

what do you think the worst case scenario would be for snow/ice accumulation in NW Houston during this event? Do you think it could reach the 13" seen in Victoria last year? Any chance of it getting to 20-25" like in 1895? It would be crazy to see a 3-day series of snow/ice storms. I have company coming in this Saturday and leaving next Tuesday; I wonder if they will be able to get out of here next week?

LaBreeze · #390 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:04 am

I'm driving to San Antonio next Wednesday, Dec. 21 and returning to Louisiana on Friday, Dec. 23 - any ideas on what I might be facing weatherwise? Winter conditions? Thanks in advance.

#391 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:07 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:what do you think the worst case scenario would be for snow/ice accumulation in NW Houston during this event? Do you think it could reach the 13" seen in Victoria last year? Any chance of it getting to 20-25" like in 1895? It would be crazy to see a 3-day series of snow/ice storms. I have company coming in this Saturday and leaving next Tuesday; I wonder if they will be able to get out of here next week?

Let's put it this way ... if it gets so bad that Dennis Quaid is coming after you on snowshoes ... then you need to worry! :lol:

(sorry, couldn't help the Day After Tomorrow joke)

Extremeweatherguy · #392 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:35 am

The funny thing is that they are now saying that the Gulf Stream is showing signs of slowing down. May be the movie was not off by that much. next thing you know we are going to be dealing with regular blizzards down this way. lol

#393 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:55 am

LaBreeze wrote:I'm driving to San Antonio next Wednesday, Dec. 21 and returning to Louisiana on Friday, Dec. 23 - any ideas on what I might be facing weatherwise? Winter conditions? Thanks in advance.

Definitely need to be ready for some very cold weather. I would make sure I have blankets, in the car, just in case we do get into an icing or snow situation here in S TX.(seems really weird saying that!!!)-better safe than sorry if it does happen I figure. Andof course keep watching the weather as your time to go approaches.

corpusbreeze · #394 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:20 am

I came to this board two years ago to talk and read about hurricanes, but since last years big snow event Im enjoying the winter weather discusions. I now know it can snow here in South Texas, and I have to say Im looking forward for some more. I feel we are in some out of wack weather pattern now that makes for long hot summers and busy hurricane season, and very cold winters. I hope next weeks hope of snow comes true.

cajungal · #395 Postby **cajungal** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:29 am

When do you think the 7-day forecast will start to show any hint at the cold air? Everyone says it supposed to happen Sunday or Monday. But, the forecast still does not show any signs of it. They have the temps that day around 57. It would have to drop at least 25 degrees from that if we have any chance of frozen precipitation. Everyone keeps talking about Texas. But, what about SE Louisiana? Do we stand a chance as well or will all the moisture be gone by then or not cold enough?

#396 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:41 am

I guess it starts for DFW:

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high around 45. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

cajungal · #397 Postby **cajungal** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:00 pm

I guess my area will just be getting plain old boring rain once again. And it won't even be that cold. High around 57 degrees.

#398 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:13 pm

cajungal, has cyclogenesis put out any forecast for this cold event on wwltv.com? I usually get emails from him, but haven't seen any lately. The NO NWS just may be hesitant to mention it at this point. Read the AFD's from surrounding offices to get an overall picture of what other's are thinking as well.

cajungal · #399 Postby **cajungal** » Tue Dec 13, 2005 1:19 pm

Maybe so. I want the snow just as bad as anyone else here. I am just not jumping the gun or getting all excited this soon. When I actually see the chances in our 5-day forecast, then that is when I will start doing cartwheels around my living room.

Snow for Texas

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