The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[Johnny]

I figured we could start a different thread since the other one is pretty long and goes back a good ways to other events. We can use this one for the latest on the upcoming cold and possible wintery weather that could effect Texas starting this weekend and into next week. This is not only for Texas but for other deep southern states. Feel free to post your comments, model data, forecasts etc. Let the games begin!!

[Portastorm]

Good deal Johnny ... just wish we had something to report but everything seems to be in a holding pattern right now!

[CaptinCrunch]

Dallas/Ft Worth Forecsat for Dec 16-18, 2005

Friday Night: A chance of rain, mixing with snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Air Force Met]

OK...my initial git cal on this is no snow/ice for any place next week south of Austin-CLL-LFK. I'm not positive about that right now but I'm not sold that the air is that cold. The air in Alaska has been tapped and already drained down do we are going to be counting on Siberian air here in SE Texas...and the type of flow that is setting up over the poles is a type of flow that will send some of that air down...but most of it east of us.

Our neighbors to the north in DFW...yes...I would say you guys could see some of the white stuff. I do believe the GFS temps are coming in too high...but the latest Euro temps have also come up some for SE Texas.

Still a week out and anything could happen...but in my years of experience here...there have been many more times (many many many more) where it looked promising a week out and then it turned into nothing a week later....rather than we didn't see it coming...if you know what I mean. Last Christmas was one of those things we saw 10 days away that actually verified (beyond my expectations of 1-2 inches...we got 8")...but there have been many more where I thought we had a shot and we got nothing. To me now...it looks like the cold air will be a little too warm...but who knows...the ridge may change a little and we may be able to tap into a little more Siberian air than I expect.

Time will tell.

[Johnny]

It's nice to see you chime in AFM. Your reasoning is pretty darn sound if you ask me. That's how it usually works here in Southeast, Texas. Like I have said before, us here in the deep south won't know if we will have snow until it is actually happening for the most part.


I was also wondering what JB is saying today? Is he singing a different tune yet?

[WXextreme]

Wow! things really got quiet around here.

What is JB saying today ?

[Portastorm]

Air Force Met, you've crushed the hopes and dreams of thousands of Texans along the Gulf Coast!

As an Austinite, however, I was selfishly glad to see you include us in the "snow possible" portion of the state. You coastal folks had your fun last year ... now it's our turn!

OK, all kidding aside, I've always respected your posts and knowledge and I have no problem buying into your reasoning.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I've noticed the NWS AFD's are late this Afternoon. Usually that is a sign of a very complex pattern is about to set up. It also happens when Texas is under the gun from the tropics too.

JB is still on board as of this AM. We shall see if he changes his tune this evening. Texas is way overdue for a Arctic outbreak of a historic nature. Every decade in the last century saw at least one or two serious outbreaks, save the 1970's and 1990's. The last one being 1989 which is 16 years ago.

[Johnny]

From the Houston/Galveston NWS this afternoon. Kind of iffy if you ask me. Our chances looked a bit better yesterday.




Clouds return Friday and rain again enters the picture Friday night. Isentropic ascent egins Friday night. The area will lie in a right rear quadrant of the jet. The temperature contrast between the shelf waters and southeast Texas should set up a nice baroclinic zone. Saturday
should be rainy...breezy and cool. Next system arrives Monday. GFS
does not show much of an Arctic air mass heading this way and the
European model (ecmwf) has delayed the intrusion of colder air until Tuesday of next week and even that looks uncertain.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The NWS will never learn about cold weather and the GFS. You live by the GFS, you will die by it too when you change your forecast with every run of the dumb model. Insticts and past history need to be used sometimes.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, you've crushed the hopes and dreams of thousands of Texans along the Gulf Coast!

As an Austinite, however, I was selfishly glad to see you include us in the "snow possible" portion of the state. You coastal folks had your fun last year ... now it's our turn!

OK, all kidding aside, I've always respected your posts and knowledge and I have no problem buying into your reasoning.

Key in that was snow possible...didn't say probable

I think the Euro is going to send more cold air east in later runs as well...but that's just a hunch.

[Air Force Met]

The NWS will never learn about cold weather and the GFS. You live by the GFS, you will die by it too when you change your forecast with every run of the dumb model. Insticts and past history need to be used sometimes.

That's the truth. The local guys here are heavy into the GFS in winter...and that's why 5 days out they were going for a high of 60 last Thursday...when it got to 40. What a bust. We talked about it over the weekend with the high coming down and the flow (etc) and how the overrunning was going to cause the NWS to bust their forecast by at least 20 degrees because they were going with the GFS numbers instead of using good old fashioned instincts...and forecasting skills.

It was a good lesson for the youngsters in the organization

[gboudx]

Like I have said before, us here in the deep south won't know if we will have snow until it is actually happening for the most part.

It's not so much different here in DFW either. Though we do get more wintry precip than you folks down further south, it's almost never a certainty when it's forecasted. I've seen many forecasts go bust on the expected day of the event. This is why I don't get too up or down with long-range forecasts for wintry precip. Yesterday, everyone was giddy with excitement. Today, some people need to step away from the ledge. Tomorrow, the giddiness could return. I've learned that too much can change daily when looking at long-range models.

[aggiecutter]

Here's the 12z EURO from the EURO freeby site. Is there enough information on those maps to make any sort of prediction. I can't make heads or tails of anything. I guess I'll have to wait for the EURO on Plymouth or Accuweather.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5121312!!/

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've noticed that while the GFS and ECMWF have stayed the same or gotten slightly warmer for this weekend and next weekend, that some of the other models like the NOGAPS and JMA have gotten colder. In fact, the latest run of the JMA brings the -5C 850mb line well down into Central Texas by early next week. I think that this is still one to watch very closely, and if Joe Bastardi is correct, then Houston could still be in the running for snow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

From the Houston/Galveston NWS this afternoon. Kind of iffy if you ask me. Our chances looked a bit better yesterday.




Clouds return Friday and rain again enters the picture Friday night. Isentropic ascent egins Friday night. The area will lie in a right rear quadrant of the jet. The temperature contrast between the shelf waters and southeast Texas should set up a nice baroclinic zone. Saturday
should be rainy...breezy and cool. Next system arrives Monday. GFS
does not show much of an Arctic air mass heading this way and the
European model (ecmwf) has delayed the intrusion of colder air until Tuesday of next week and even that looks uncertain.

So far, San Angelo and Midland are not buying the GFS and are going solely with the European.

[Brent]

Here's the 12z EURO from the EURO freeby site. Is there enough information on those maps to make any sort of prediction. I can't make heads or tails of anything. I guess I'll have to wait for the EURO on Plymouth or Accuweather.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5121312!!/

That shows no precip anywhere close to South Texas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's the 12z EURO from the EURO freeby site. Is there enough information on those maps to make any sort of prediction. I can't make heads or tails of anything. I guess I'll have to wait for the EURO on Plymouth or Accuweather.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5121312!!/

That shows no precip anywhere close to South Texas...

that's because the map isn't showing precip.; it is showing 850mb wind speed and mean sea-level pressure.

[gboudx]

The afternoon DFW AFD is not sold on much of any wintry precip up here either. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we got all our hopes up for nothing. Will definately NOT be cold enough for frozen precip this weekend in SE Texas or south Louisiana unless the models change drastically. Looks like a cold rainy weekend, yuck.