Can someone 'splain what HPC is saying?

[ga_ben]

This from today's Final Extended Forecast Discussion.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 16 2005 - 12Z TUE DEC 20 2005

ADJUSTED FINAL PACKAGE TO REFLECT LATEST ECMWF BACKING OFF ITS
IDEA OF WAVE LIFTING OUT OF GULF OF MEXICO AND UP E COAST D6-7. REMAINDER OF 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN SYNC WITH THIS FLATTER
SOLUTION. ELIMINATION OF THIS STORM SIMPLIFIES MAP TREMENDOUSLY...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COAST TO COAST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PD.

Okay now when they get to the regional highlights they say this-

...ERN US...

LARGE STORM D3 WILL SWING OUT OF REGION QUICKLY...WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS FL PENINSULA
D5 WILL SPREAD PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.


Are they saying the storm will just be suppressed so the SE gets the precip and then it slides off the coast or what?

[southerngale]

I'm no expert but I think they're being dream-squashers for a lot of us along the Gulf coast.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

When ever the HPC speaks, you can expect the opposite.

[jkt21787]

When ever the HPC speaks, you can expect the opposite.

Well you can't go against the models right now. Euro was the hold out for a big storm for next week (days 6 and 7) and now it is trending toward a drier solution like the GFS. What is HPC and the NWS offices to do but trend drier as well, which most are doing.

[Brent]

I'm no expert but I think they're being dream-squashers for a lot of us along the Gulf coast.

Yes... and probably right.

[Air Force Met]

I'm no expert but I think they're being dream-squashers for a lot of us along the Gulf coast.

Yes... and probably right.

...And frankly it's what I'm seeing. The Euro has been consitant...but it's one model and it's one model that is trending AWAY from it's earlier bravado. The Canadian is not as cold (I'm speaking for SE Texans here) and the Euro is backing off.

Dream squashers indeed.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Dream squashers for snow or the cold or both? I just want cold next week until Dec 26th!

[jkt21787]

Dream squashers for snow or the cold or both? I just want cold next week until Dec 26th!

It will probably still get pretty cold next week. They are just squashing the snow hopes right now

[Air Force Met]

Dream squashers for snow or the cold or both? I just want cold next week until Dec 26th!

More snow...but the some of the cold. The upper air pattern...even in the Euro...is enough to keep us cooled down but not enough to make us fridgid.

[Brent]

It'll be cold... but not a record outbreak comparable to 1989 or 1983. My experience here has been cold=dry, and I think that's what you will see. I used to be like ya'll... jumped all over every single mention of snow, only to be disappointed each and every time.

Oh and I think whatever cold air happens will moderate before Christmas.

[sphinx]

One holdout remains: the "always-reliable" NOGAPS (12 UT run) still holds out hope for the Gulf Coast wave of early next week. It brings it up the coast and gives snow to the Mid-Atlantic. All the other models have the wave being squashed by the massive high-pressure system.

The fanciful 18 UT GFS develops a Gulf Coast wave later in the week bringing rain/snow to DC and snow for much of New England. A Miller A northeaster?