The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[aggiecutter]

The one thing that gives me confidence as far as the cold is concerned is the very negative AO. That favors troughiness in the central US. As far as the moisture is concerned, that is a crap-shoot.

[TexasStooge]

Weekend could bring snow

By ALAN MELSON / DallasNews.com

North Texas may get some much-needed rain Tuesday night and again this weekend, but it's not likely to lessen the drought gripping the region.

Meanwhile, thousands of travelers who are preparing to depart for vacation destinations may encounter some trouble with the weather, as the National Weather Service's forecast calls for a possibility of rain mixed with snow Friday night into Saturday morning.

NWS meteorologist Joe Harris said there was a 70 percent chance of rain for the overnight hours into Wednesday morning, although it probably will clear up around daybreak. The high temperature Wednesday will be about 63 degrees.

After clear skies Thursday, the forecast calls for another system to swoop down from the Rockies around midday Friday, bringing a chance for rain that night and throughout the day Saturday.

Harris said up to three-quarters of an inch of rain would soak several inches into the cool ground, helping surface vegetation, but it won't make much of a long-term difference. So far this year, only 18.67 inches of precipitation has fallen at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, the region's official recording station, far below the average of 33.18 inches for this time of year.

"We would need well over a foot of rain to alleviate this drought," he said.

At this rate, North Texas is on pace for 2005 to become the fifth-driest on record. In 1921, 17.91 inches were recorded, making that the area's driest recorded year.

The incoming weather systems will bring back the arctic air, dropping temperatures to near freezing Wednesday night. WFAA-TV meteorologist Greg Fields said temperatures will drop over Thursday and Friday and highs will reach only the upper 40s and lows will dip into the 20s by Saturday and Sunday.

The front could mean some snow mixed in with the rain, although Fields said it's too early to tell if that's a strong possibility.

"As for frozen precipitation, that's still up in the air," Fields said.

Late next week, the weather will warm up a bit – just in time for Santa.

"As we move into the Christmas period, starting Wednesday or Thursday, temperatures will be edging up," Harris said.

[Tyler]

Looks like we got all our hopes up for nothing. Will definately NOT be cold enough for frozen precip this weekend in SE Texas or south Louisiana unless the models change drastically. Looks like a cold rainy weekend, yuck.

I wouldn't say that yet. Way too far in advance. Don't try to jump from model solution to model solution, thats just silly. Lets look at the overall picture instead.

Models are NOT going to handle this cold arctic air well at all. They will continue to do huge filp-flops between now and this weekend, and next week. This is a very active pattern. With the kind of pattern that is setting up, we could be talking about some darn cold air next week. Just look at the overall pattern, huge ridge on the west coast, and some blocking. I don't see how we won't get cold. I'm not sure when, but sometime next week, its going to be COLD.

As far as this weekend goes, and the chances of wintry precip, Dallas will have yet another good chance of seeing some wintry precip, but as far as down here in SE Texas, not looking that great, but there IS still a chance. More model runs are needed to see which way they trend in the coming days. Its not smart to say "oh, its gonna be a cold rain" because thats what the 12z GFS says and then "OMG ITS GONNA SNOW!!11" becuase thats what the 0z says. We just need to look at the overall pattern and look at what the trends are saying.

[jasons2k]

The late, great Harold Taft said it best:

"Down here, you don't forecast snow until you see the first flake."

[Brent]

"Down here, you don't forecast snow until you see the first flake."

So true... The only time we ever get snow is when it's NOT forecasted.

The times it's been forecasted something has happened in the last 12 hours to make it not happen... not cold enough or the moisture goes away.

[freeport_texas22]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.shtml looks intresting to say the least Hours 168-192

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like we got all our hopes up for nothing. Will definately NOT be cold enough for frozen precip this weekend in SE Texas or south Louisiana unless the models change drastically. Looks like a cold rainy weekend, yuck.

I wouldn't say that yet. Way too far in advance. Don't try to jump from model solution to model solution, thats just silly. Lets look at the overall picture instead.

Models are NOT going to handle this cold arctic air well at all. They will continue to do huge filp-flops between now and this weekend, and next week. This is a very active pattern. With the kind of pattern that is setting up, we could be talking about some darn cold air next week. Just look at the overall pattern, huge ridge on the west coast, and some blocking. I don't see how we won't get cold. I'm not sure when, but sometime next week, its going to be COLD.

As far as this weekend goes, and the chances of wintry precip, Dallas will have yet another good chance of seeing some wintry precip, but as far as down here in SE Texas, not looking that great, but there IS still a chance. More model runs are needed to see which way they trend in the coming days. Its not smart to say "oh, its gonna be a cold rain" because thats what the 12z GFS says and then "OMG ITS GONNA SNOW!!11" becuase thats what the 0z says. We just need to look at the overall pattern and look at what the trends are saying.

I completely agree. I think the pattern supports a nice shot of arctic air next week. I think the weekend threat of snow/ice will be much more isolated then what may happen next week. Would not be surprised to see a decent winter storm between the 19th and 25th with accumulations possible in places like Houston and Beaumont. Interesting to say the least. As for the models, I agree with you in that they are usually wrong concerning the cold of mid-range arctic shots. The GFS will bust by 10+ degrees in SE Texas on many occassions...and I DO NOT think the GFS should be trusted for this upcoming event until we are just 1-3 days out. Lots to watch...

***EDIT: The GFS has flip-flopped yet again. The 18Z run brings snow all the way to the Gulf coast by Tuesday the 20th.***

[Tyler]

Looks like we got all our hopes up for nothing. Will definately NOT be cold enough for frozen precip this weekend in SE Texas or south Louisiana unless the models change drastically. Looks like a cold rainy weekend, yuck.

I wouldn't say that yet. Way too far in advance. Don't try to jump from model solution to model solution, thats just silly. Lets look at the overall picture instead.

Models are NOT going to handle this cold arctic air well at all. They will continue to do huge filp-flops between now and this weekend, and next week. This is a very active pattern. With the kind of pattern that is setting up, we could be talking about some darn cold air next week. Just look at the overall pattern, huge ridge on the west coast, and some blocking. I don't see how we won't get cold. I'm not sure when, but sometime next week, its going to be COLD.

As far as this weekend goes, and the chances of wintry precip, Dallas will have yet another good chance of seeing some wintry precip, but as far as down here in SE Texas, not looking that great, but there IS still a chance. More model runs are needed to see which way they trend in the coming days. Its not smart to say "oh, its gonna be a cold rain" because thats what the 12z GFS says and then "OMG ITS GONNA SNOW!!11" becuase thats what the 0z says. We just need to look at the overall pattern and look at what the trends are saying.

I completely agree. I think the pattern supports a nice shot of arctic air next week. I think the weekend threat of snow/ice will be much more isolated then what may happen next week. Would not be surprised to see a decent winter storm between the 19th and 25th with accumulations possible in places like Houston and Beaumont. Interesting to say the least. As for the models, I agree with you in that they are usually wrong concerning the cold of mid-range arctic shots. The GFS will bust by 10+ degrees in SE Texas on many occassions...and I DO NOT think the GFS should be trusted for this upcoming event until we are just 1-3 days out. Lots to watch...

***EDIT: The GFS has flip-flopped yet again. The 18Z run brings snow all the way to the Gulf coast by Tuesday the 20th.***

100% agree. And yes, the 18z GFS is interesting, to say the least.

Look at hours 162 - 192:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

The 18z shows a deep, shallow trough developing over the central U.S. diving a cold airmass through SE TX on Mon-Tue. Kinda like yesterday's 0z run, only not as extreme and 1989-ish. At any rate, what I think is important is that the GFS is again showing this trough in the mon-wed time frame (this time with some snow for Houston, heh). Will the 0z GFS possibly latch onto this idea and show much colder temps next week, we'll have to wait and find out.

[gboudx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_l.shtml looks intresting to say the least Hours 168-192

The Texas snowstorm returns. Should be fun model-watching over the next 4-5 days.

Edit: What is/are the difference(s) in the timings of the GFS runs? Do some runs use more data, etc?

[vbhoutex]

Looks like we got all our hopes up for nothing. Will definately NOT be cold enough for frozen precip this weekend in SE Texas or south Louisiana unless the models change drastically. Looks like a cold rainy weekend, yuck.

In other words typical "winter" weather for us!!!YUCK!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi has been very good so far this fall/winter...and in his latest post he says that:

-He thinks a snow/ice threat is possible in the hill country and north of I-20 over the weekend.

-That a major snowstorm, one of the worst and most widespread TX has seen in many years will set up on Monday. He also says that many stations north of I-10 will probably report ice/snow on Monday and on Monday night the snow and ice will reach all the way to the Gulf Coast.

-He mentions that the 18Z GFS is much colder and looks like the 12Z Euro (Which it does).

Basically it looks like all the talk about no snow and all rain may be completely wrong. We may ALL (in SE Texas) wake up Tuesday morning (the 20th) with a yard full of snow/ice. This looks just as interesting as it did yesterday, and even though the NWS has backed down for the moment, they may have to go back to winter alert status soon. VERY Interesting weather on the way, and quite frankly I can't wait. Lots to watch...

[Tyler]

Joe Bastardi has been very good so far this fall/winter...and in his latest post he says that:

-He thinks a snow/ice threat is possible in the hill country and north of I-20 over the weekend.

-That a major snowstorm, one of the worst and most widespread TX has seen in many years will set up on Monday. He also says that many stations north of I-10 will probably report ice/snow on Monday and on Monday night the snow and ice will reach all the way to the Gulf Coast.

-He mentions that the 18Z GFS is much colder and looks like the 12Z Euro (Which it does).

Basically it looks like all the talk about no snow and all rain may be completely wrong. We may ALL (in SE Texas) wake up Tuesday morning (the 20th) with a yard full of snow/ice. This looks just as interesting as it did yesterday, and even though the NWS has backed down for the moment, they may have to go back to winter alert status soon. VERY Interesting weather on the way, and quite frankly I can't wait. Lots to watch...

Thanks for letting us know what JB has to say. Indeed, this is a VERY exciting pattern, and I am VERY interested. Next week could become DARN RIGHT COLD for SE Texas. And even the chance of some snow. Don't know if I agree that it will be the most widespread and severe Texas has seen, but this definitely has the potential for snow to reach the coast.

Lots to watch in the coming days!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi has been very good so far this fall/winter...and in his latest post he says that:

-He thinks a snow/ice threat is possible in the hill country and north of I-20 over the weekend.

-That a major snowstorm, one of the worst and most widespread TX has seen in many years will set up on Monday. He also says that many stations north of I-10 will probably report ice/snow on Monday and on Monday night the snow and ice will reach all the way to the Gulf Coast.

-He mentions that the 18Z GFS is much colder and looks like the 12Z Euro (Which it does).

Basically it looks like all the talk about no snow and all rain may be completely wrong. We may ALL (in SE Texas) wake up Tuesday morning (the 20th) with a yard full of snow/ice. This looks just as interesting as it did yesterday, and even though the NWS has backed down for the moment, they may have to go back to winter alert status soon. VERY Interesting weather on the way, and quite frankly I can't wait. Lots to watch...

Thanks for letting us know what JB has to say. Indeed, this is a VERY exciting pattern, and I am VERY interested. Next week could become DARN RIGHT COLD for SE Texas. And even the chance of some snow. Don't know if I agree that it will be the most widespread and severe Texas has seen, but this definitely has the potential for snow to reach the coast.

Lots to watch in the coming days!

Not the most widespread and severe ever, but possibly since last christmas or since 1989...the worst ever would be in 1895 when 1-3 ft. fell in Houston and then stayed on the ground for 2 weeks. I don't think it will be nearly that extreme.

[Tyler]

Not the most widespread and severe ever, but possibly since last christmas or since 1989...the worst ever would be in 1895 when 1-3 ft. fell in Houston and then stayed on the ground for 2 weeks. I don't think it will be nearly that extreme.

Yes, possibly since 1989. Last Christmas, all I saw was two flakes, while miles south of me, they saw 1 to 3 inches. I was so mad!

And about 1895, I can't BELIEVE that happened. I just cannot picture that in my mind! I"ve heard parts of Galveston Bay froze over as well.

[jkt21787]

Joe Bastardi has been very good so far this fall/winter...and in his latest post he says that:

-He thinks a snow/ice threat is possible in the hill country and north of I-20 over the weekend.

-That a major snowstorm, one of the worst and most widespread TX has seen in many years will set up on Monday. He also says that many stations north of I-10 will probably report ice/snow on Monday and on Monday night the snow and ice will reach all the way to the Gulf Coast.

-He mentions that the 18Z GFS is much colder and looks like the 12Z Euro (Which it does).

Basically it looks like all the talk about no snow and all rain may be completely wrong. We may ALL (in SE Texas) wake up Tuesday morning (the 20th) with a yard full of snow/ice. This looks just as interesting as it did yesterday, and even though the NWS has backed down for the moment, they may have to go back to winter alert status soon. VERY Interesting weather on the way, and quite frankly I can't wait. Lots to watch...

Typical JB hyping up a storm. I wouldn't look for the snowstorm that is predicted to be the worst in years from him, because chances are little to none that it will happen. JB said Hurricane Rita would be as bad or worse than Carla for TX, which ended up being far from the case. Take JB for a grain of salt.

I followed him many years ago during winters here for my area. He predicted a snowstorm in my area all the time it seemed, of which 95% or more never materialized, certainly not to the level of what he hypes it as.

BTW, I would consider the Christmas snowstorm the worst in TX (especially for its location) in many years. That was a once or twice in a lifetime event. So JB calling this storm the worse in many years doesn't make much sense.

So, I'm not saying there won't be winter weather in TX, but I certainly wouldn't expect a widespread and major, and certainly historic, event. You don't forecast or even speculate on those types of events, because they are rare and unpredictable enough as it is.

[Brent]

Typical JB hyping up a storm. I wouldn't look for the snowstorm that is predicted to be the worst in years from him, because chances are little to none that it will happen. JB said Hurricane Rita would be as bad or worse than Carla for TX, which ended up being far from the case. Take JB for a grain of salt.

I followed him many years ago during winters here for my area. He predicted a snowstorm in my area all the time it seemed, of which 95% or more never materialized, certainly not to the level of what he hypes it as.

BTW, I would consider the Christmas snowstorm the worst in TX (especially for its location) in many years. That was a once or twice in a lifetime event. So JB calling this storm the worse in many years doesn't make much sense.

So, I'm not saying there won't be winter weather in TX, but I certainly wouldn't expect a widespread and major, and certainly historic, event. You don't forecast or even speculate on those types of events, because they are rare and unpredictable enough as it is.

I am so not gonna get started on JB...

[Brent]

Yes, possibly since 1989. Last Christmas, all I saw was two flakes, while miles south of me, they saw 1 to 3 inches. I was so mad!

OUCH! I thought it bad enough we missed out... but just ouch.

[freeport_texas22]

hey tyler im in clute (miles south of u) and i had 13 inches in my yard! i thought i was dreaming being so close to the coast..but who knew!

[Tyler]

hey tyler im in clute (miles south of u) and i had 13 inches in my yard! i thought i was dreaming being so close to the coast..but who knew!

WOW Thats awesome. I bet you really enjoyed that! Certainly better than my two flakes!

[jasons2k]

Joe Bastardi has been very good so far this fall/winter...and in his latest post he says that:

-He thinks a snow/ice threat is possible in the hill country and north of I-20 over the weekend.

-That a major snowstorm, one of the worst and most widespread TX has seen in many years will set up on Monday. He also says that many stations north of I-10 will probably report ice/snow on Monday and on Monday night the snow and ice will reach all the way to the Gulf Coast.

-He mentions that the 18Z GFS is much colder and looks like the 12Z Euro (Which it does).

Basically it looks like all the talk about no snow and all rain may be completely wrong. We may ALL (in SE Texas) wake up Tuesday morning (the 20th) with a yard full of snow/ice. This looks just as interesting as it did yesterday, and even though the NWS has backed down for the moment, they may have to go back to winter alert status soon. VERY Interesting weather on the way, and quite frankly I can't wait. Lots to watch...

As usual, sounds like a bunch of hype to me. I'll believe it when I see it and gladly take my crow on ice.