12z EURO has

[aggiecutter]

1043mb high ridging down into Texas on Sunday.

Day 7 EURO...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Portastorm]

I saw that aggiecutter!

The 12z Euro numbers show a 850 mb temp of -3.7 for Austin (equating to temps in the low 20s) methinks and a very wet atmosphere. Snow?

This next weekend could be historic if this were to verify!

[aggiecutter]

Also, the operational GFS has joined the EURO for the cold early next week.
18Z operational GFS


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INLAND INTO WESTERN CANADA KICKS THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY
WITH NO INFLUENCE. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY AS FORMER CALIFORNIA LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH WHILE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL THEN FALL IN BEHIND ROCKIES TROUGH
WITH BOTH MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
STRONG LIFT, AND GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SUGGEST
SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM/UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS SINCE THEY AWAIT THE FORMER CANADIAN TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SO, WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. RAPID DRYING ENSUES AS
A PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MET/MAV/MEX BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR MAV/MEX ON POPS.

MODELS THEN HAVE DIFFICULTY BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ALL AGREE ON AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF
TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
DROPPING SOUTH. THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A BROAD
TROUGH WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVES WITH A PACIFIC TYPE AIRMASS WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG TROUGH WITH A CANADIAN,
POSSIBLY ARCTIC AIRMASS (12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
0 TO -5 DEGREES C). FOR NOW, WILL NOT CHANGE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE ECMWF VERIFY, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO
BE GREATLY LOWERED WITH POSSIBLE MENTION OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION.

&&

Notice how NWS Austin/ San Antonio leave themselves an out in the AFD.? I think it takes some of the more experienced forecasters getting burned once by the good ol' GFS with regards to Arctic fronts in Texas for them to be skeptical when the GFS is an outlier. Portastorm, you recall these guys had you in the 50's and 60's for this last Thursday and Friday about this time last week.

Bastardi, in his update said he was concerned about Snow and Ice in South Texas. I hope it doesn't come till Sunday tbecause my local high school is playing in the Class 4A title game up in Round Rock this Saturday and I want to go. But I think I'll clear a memory card and gets some fresh batteries for my camera just in case we get a Christmas time snow part II down here. That would be a hoot!!!![/b]

[Portastorm]

Ah CC, you must be a Calallen grad, eh?

I believe your school is playing at the new football stadium in Round Rock that we call "The Palace." It's actually about 10 minutes from my house ... a very nice football stadium.

It would be wild if we had snow or ice for the game. If you believe JB and the Euro, it's definitely possible.

As for the local NWS guys ... sheesh ... don't get me started. They did a horrible job this past week. It was less than 24 hrs before the event that they actually started to forecast freezing precip. Then, we already had light freezing rain falling for several hours and once the accidents started piling up on the roads, we went from a Freezing Rain Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Meanwhile, both Fort Worth and San Angelo had Winter Storm Watches up, wisely I might add, some 24 hrs in advance.

[aggiecutter]

Operational GFS goes wild next week...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

Bastardi also mentioned that he is concerned about a BLIZZARD from NE TEXAS to the NE part of the country during the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ah CC, you must be a Calallen grad, eh?

I believe your school is playing at the new football stadium in Round Rock that we call "The Palace." It's actually about 10 minutes from my house ... a very nice football stadium.

It would be wild if we had snow or ice for the game. If you believe JB and the Euro, it's definitely possible.

As for the local NWS guys ... sheesh ... don't get me started. They did a horrible job this past week. It was less than 24 hrs before the event that they actually started to forecast freezing precip. Then, we already had light freezing rain falling for several hours and once the accidents started piling up on the roads, we went from a Freezing Rain Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Meanwhile, both Fort Worth and San Angelo had Winter Storm Watches up, wisely I might add, some 24 hrs in advance.

Not a Calallen grad, but have lived in this area for 10 years and have kids in the school system.

I hope any snow and/or ice event holds off till Sunday even tough next to a White Christmas , the next big dream for most south Texas kids would to play a real football game in a winter weather scenerio. Just maybe not the championship. I now hate the Saints because the Alamodome has been blocked for use during the playoffs.

Back to subject. Bastardi tossing out the coldest since 1989 or maybe even the 1800's has my ears up. Perhaps a trip to Home Depot or Lowes to get the pipe insulation is in order today.

[Portastorm]

Ah CC, you must be a Calallen grad, eh?

I believe your school is playing at the new football stadium in Round Rock that we call "The Palace." It's actually about 10 minutes from my house ... a very nice football stadium.

It would be wild if we had snow or ice for the game. If you believe JB and the Euro, it's definitely possible.

As for the local NWS guys ... sheesh ... don't get me started. They did a horrible job this past week. It was less than 24 hrs before the event that they actually started to forecast freezing precip. Then, we already had light freezing rain falling for several hours and once the accidents started piling up on the roads, we went from a Freezing Rain Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning. Meanwhile, both Fort Worth and San Angelo had Winter Storm Watches up, wisely I might add, some 24 hrs in advance.

Not a Calallen grad, but have lived in this area for 10 years and have kids in the school system.

I hope any snow and/or ice event holds off till Sunday even tough next to a White Christmas , the next big dream for most south Texas kids would to play a real football game in a winter weather scenerio. Just maybe not the championship. I now hate the Saints because the Alamodome has been blocked for use during the playoffs.

Back to subject. Bastardi tossing out the coldest since 1989 or maybe even the 1800's has my ears up. Perhaps a trip to Home Depot or Lowes to get the pipe insulation is in order today.

I saw that in JB's column. Given what the European is/has been showing and it now appears the GFS is coming on board ... all of us in central and southern Texas need to consider what we would do in the event of such a dramatic temperature drop.

I remember December 23, 1989, when it hit 4 degrees in Austin. And I also remember the massive amounts of pipes bursting when the temps finally got above freezing and so many Austinites had a miserable Christmas mess to clean up!

[aggiecutter]

The OZ EURO looks very cold and wet from day 4-7. Here's the link to the website. The EURO is about halfway down the page.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

The 12z GFS has wintry precip. for North Texas on Saturday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

[southerngale]

I've read where the Euro called this last Arctic front and I think I read that it called the Christmas snow last year in Texas. My question is does anyone know how far out it showed it? I know it's been pretty consistent for a few days with a similar scenario, but just wondering how good it is in the 5-8 day timeframe.

[txwatcher91]

I've read where the Euro called this last Arctic front and I think I read that it called the Christmas snow last year in Texas. My question is does anyone know how far out it showed it? I know it's been pretty consistent for a few days with a similar scenario, but just wondering how good it is in the 5-8 day timeframe.

I don't know the answer to your question, but the GFS shows a surge of very cold air on December 23. Maybe a white Christmas here?

[Portastorm]

That would be the GFS model lad, not the European.

[txwatcher91]

That would be the GFS model lad, not the European.

OOPS,I meant to say GFS.

[Brent]

I've read where the Euro called this last Arctic front and I think I read that it called the Christmas snow last year in Texas. My question is does anyone know how far out it showed it? I know it's been pretty consistent for a few days with a similar scenario, but just wondering how good it is in the 5-8 day timeframe.

I don't know the answer to your question, but the GFS shows a surge of very cold air on December 23. Maybe a white Christmas here?

That seems to indicate the cold outbreak would stay east of Texas...

and of course, it'll be dry here.

[richtrav]

Sigh, Bastardi can be a bit alarmist, he had us in South Texas scared to death last January when he said a superfront was headed straight for us, that it was going to freeze all the way to Brownsville etc etc. I don't think it got below 40.

And I remember the '89 freeze too; forecasters KNEW pretty far ahead of time it was coming and that it was going to be "The Big One", there was no waffling about it (if I recall right, cut me a little slack it WAS 16 years ago after all!) No really, I remember vividly the weatherman in Austin saying we would have the coldest weather in many decades several days, seemed like almost a week, before it actually arrived.