Prediction on how cold it could get in Texas

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lets make predictions on how cold we think it will get this weekend and next week in Texas, and where we think the snow, ice and rain lines will be. Lets see who does the best after the fact.

Below is my prediction on the COLDEST High/Low during a period from Sat. - Tues:

Houston: High - 34/Low - 20
Waco: High - 31/Low - 15
Dallas: High - 27/Low - 10
Corpus Christi: High - 41/Low - 26

And here are my snow/ice/rain ideas:

1st storm (Sat. - Sun.): I think light snow and ice will be reported north of a line from Waco to Lufkin, with all areas southward seeing a chilly rain. Accumulations could reach 1" in areas like Dallas.

2nd storm (Mon. - Tues.): I think the rain/mix/snow line hovers near a line from Austin to Houston to Beaumont during the day with it reaching as far south as a line from Eagle Pass to Victoria overnight on Monday. Accumulations could top 2-4" in Dallas, a dusting-2" in Houston and a trace or a dusting may fall in Vicoria.

***This is very preliminary and just a best guess on what I think may happen, not a forecast***

[f5]

how cold can it get in Texas all you have to do is review 1899.wacky things happend during that outbreak

[Brent]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

[Tyler]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Exactly...I agree Tyler. And for everyone (on other TX threads) saying that Joe Bastardi always over-hypes situations...he got the last one almost perfectly for Houston. I emailed him a WEEK before the event and in his response he told me that he predicted a cloudy, windy Thursday with highs in the middle 30s. That is exactly what we got. I think if the last arctic blast was that cold, that this one will probably be colder. Why? Well, Joe Bastardi thinks it may ... also The 18Z GFS run brings the -5C 850mb line into north Houston by Tues./Wed. and the 0C 850mb line all the way into the Gulf (with some snow) ... Also, the lesser looked at models (JMA, NOGAPS, etc.) are predicting a very cold airmass, and they can sometimes see future events better then some of the other models ... and finally because of the overall weather pattern. The negative (forecast to go more negative) AO could lead to extreme cold down the plains, and I think that this will not be our last arctic shot of the winter. So far (on a nationwide scale) this has been one of the coldest Decembers in a long time. LOTS of the country is currently well below normal overall for the month, and with more shots of arctic air on the way...this December could finish out on the list of the top 10 coldest (on a nationwide scale) in the last 50 years. I think anything is possible in the weather today. After ANOTHER record-breaking hurricane season, this winter is off to a crazy start (and we are only 2 weeks in). Just because Houston has not had a 1"+ snowfall since 1989, doesn't mean that tomorrow it won't have a 2 foot snowfall (it has happened before). Crazy things will happen over the next few years in this pattern we are in, and we should be prepared for everything. These are exciting times weather wise, and I am ready for anything that comes my way (including possible wintry weather next week).

[ROCK]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Tyler, always the optimist ......BTW good to see you finally make it in to 2K...Just wait until TS season!...

Paul from KHOU forum...

[Tyler]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Exactly...I agree Tyler. And for everyone (on other TX threads) saying that Joe Bastardi always over-hypes situations...he got the last one almost perfectly for Houston. I emailed him a WEEK before the event and in his response he told me that he predicted a cloudy, windy Thursday with highs in the middle 30s. That is exactly what we got. I think if the last arctic blast was that cold, that this one will probably be colder. Why? Well, Joe Bastardi thinks it may ... also The 18Z GFS run brings the -5C 850mb line into north Houston by Tues./Wed. and the 0C 850mb line all the way into the Gulf (with some snow) ... Also, the lesser looked at models (JMA, NOGAPS, etc.) are predicting a very cold airmass, and they can sometimes see future events better then some of the other models ... and finally because of the overall weather pattern. The negative (forecast to go more negative) AO could lead to extreme cold down the plains, and I think that this will not be our last arctic shot of the winter. So far (on a nationwide scale) this has been one of the coldest Decembers in a long time. LOTS of the country is currently well below normal overall for the month, and with more shots of arctic air on the way...this December could finish out on the list of the top 10 coldest (on a nationwide scale) in the last 50 years. I think anything is possible in the weather today. After ANOTHER record-breaking hurricane season, this winter is off to a crazy start (and we are only 2 weeks in). Just because Houston has not had a 1"+ snowfall since 1989, doesn't mean that tomorrow it won't have a 2 foot snowfall (it has happened before). Crazy things will happen over the next few years in this pattern we are in, and we should be prepared for everything. These are exciting times weather wise, and I am ready for anything that comes my way (including possible wintry weather next week).

Good thoughts! I agree with it all. This certainly has been a VERY cold start to December, and who knows, we could finish in the top 10 coolest ever nationwide!

[Tyler]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Tyler, always the optimist ......BTW good to see you finally make it in to 2K...Just wait until TS season!...

Paul from KHOU forum...

Thanks for the welcome Paul. Me, an optimist?? NO WAY!

I've actually lurked for over a year, but never had the urge to sign up. Don't know why...

[ROCK]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Tyler, always the optimist ......BTW good to see you finally make it in to 2K...Just wait until TS season!...

Paul from KHOU forum...

Thanks for the welcome Paul. Me, an optimist?? NO WAY!

I've actually lurked for over a year, but never had the urge to sign up. Don't know why...

glad you did. 2K best weather site I have been around. Got me through Rita when she was progged into Freeport. Sort of kept me from freaking out.....A lot of nice people here that do not type all CAPS also....

[Burn1]

Again...You guys make it sound like SE Texas is in the snow belt....Maybe a little spoiled from last years historic snow fall.....

Listen I am into weather phenomena big time.....However the chances are very slim for repeat of last year

[vbhoutex]

Current temps in SE TX are probably as warm as we will see for at least the next week. Cool down begins tomorrow with early morning FROPA in Houston and very wet. Saturday sees more cool air coming in with more rain and temps probably struggling to get to the low forties. The real challenge comes after the possible Siberian air is transported South across the front range of the Rockies and the plains right into TX all the way to the GOM. I wouldn't be surprised by a winter weather event precipitation wise in the Tues/Weds. time frame. Hard to decide on accumulations, if any, but up to 4" in some places wouldn't be a huge surprise if the column is as wet as it appears it could be by that time. As always, especially with winter weather in SE TX, we wait and see!! Who would have ever thought that areas South of me would have 8" of snow last year and we got a dusting here in W Houston?

[Tyler]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Tyler, always the optimist ......BTW good to see you finally make it in to 2K...Just wait until TS season!...

Paul from KHOU forum...

Thanks for the welcome Paul. Me, an optimist?? NO WAY!

I've actually lurked for over a year, but never had the urge to sign up. Don't know why...

glad you did. 2K best weather site I have been around. Got me through Rita when she was progged into Freeport. Sort of kept me from freaking out.....A lot of nice people here that do not type all CAPS also....

LOL! NEVER give Arizona Desert a link to this place, EVER! It would be a disaster!

[Tyler]

Current temps in SE TX are probably as warm as we will see for at least the next week. Cool down begins tomorrow with early morning FROPA in Houston and very wet. Saturday sees more cool air coming in with more rain and temps probably struggling to get to the low forties. The real challenge comes after the possible Siberian air is transported South across the front range of the Rockies and the plains right into TX all the way to the GOM. I wouldn't be surprised by a winter weather event precipitation wise in the Tues/Weds. time frame. Hard to decide on accumulations, if any, but up to 4" in some places wouldn't be a huge surprise if the column is as wet as it appears it could be by that time. As always, especially with winter weather in SE TX, we wait and see!! Who would have ever thought that areas South of me would have 8" of snow last year and we got a dusting here in W Houston?

Latest GFS wants it to snow here in Houston on Tuesday. Very shocking and interesting run.

Check out 162 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Tyler]

Again...You guys make it sound like SE Texas is in the snow belt....

We're not?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Current temps in SE TX are probably as warm as we will see for at least the next week. Cool down begins tomorrow with early morning FROPA in Houston and very wet. Saturday sees more cool air coming in with more rain and temps probably struggling to get to the low forties. The real challenge comes after the possible Siberian air is transported South across the front range of the Rockies and the plains right into TX all the way to the GOM. I wouldn't be surprised by a winter weather event precipitation wise in the Tues/Weds. time frame. Hard to decide on accumulations, if any, but up to 4" in some places wouldn't be a huge surprise if the column is as wet as it appears it could be by that time. As always, especially with winter weather in SE TX, we wait and see!! Who would have ever thought that areas South of me would have 8" of snow last year and we got a dusting here in W Houston?

Check out 162 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Yes. If this trend of the models continues then we will have a likely chance at snow next week. In fact, the latest GFS shows an all out snowstorm (Texas style) with moderate to heavy snow even falling at times. I would not be surprised to see some 3-6"+ snowfall amounts out of this event...may be even in Houston Houston has not seen a 4"+ snowfall since 1960, so if it happened, we would break the 45 yr. spell, also...if we beat 4.4", then we would also be beating Houston's second greatest recorded snowfall (The first greatest was the 2 ft. in 1895). The GFS graphics on accuweather.com professional are even showing accumulation in lots of the area on Tues. night/Wed. morning. If the GFS verifies then it should start snowing/icing next Monday night or Tuesday morning and then continue into Wednesday morning. So we are only 5-7 days away from what may be another historic Texas snowfall.
Latest GFS wants it to snow here in Houston on Tuesday. Very shocking and interesting run.

[vbhoutex]

Well FROPA is now scheduled for later today, but I still stick by my earlier thoughts, at least for now. At a minimum it appears we will have an interesting week weather wise in the SE TX area.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Any chance Coprus and Victoria get into the act on the snow or freezing precip with this event. IF we have another snow, I could see our city council putting out bids for snow removal equipment.

[cajungal]

Ha, it is a tie! But, I hope it does snow, but won't believe it until I see the first flake. Just like last year. I knew in my heart it was going to snow, but it kept sleeting. And did not think it was ever going to change to snow. When it changed to snow around lunchtime Christmas Day, it brought tears to my eyes.

[boca]

Where the flakes big or very small and fine when it changed to snow?

[cajungal]

Where the flakes big or very small and fine when it changed to snow?

They were huge flakes! We went to my grandpa's in Thibodaux and it was really coming down hard! It would do that for maybe 20-30 minutes, stop, change back to sleet. Then, change right back to snow. When we got back to my house in Schriever, which is only a 15-minute drive from my grandpa's house, we had even more snow than he did. My neighbors said the snow came down all day. The snow really accumalated to over a inch in my neighborhood. We had enough to build a decent snowman. I wish I had my digital camera then, so I could of took pictures. Missed a photo shoot of a lifetime. (My brother has pictures though) I did not purchase my digital camera until after January with my Christmas money.