The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[aggiecutter]

The important thing to remember is that the indices strongly favor cold over the central part of the country, and it will remain that way as long as the AO is strongly negative. However, it's hard to predict the particular paths of storms 5-7 days out.

[Tyler]

The important thing to remember is that the indices strongly favor cold over the central part of the country, and it will remain that way as long as the AO is strongly negative. However, it's hard to predict the particular paths of storms 5-7 days out.

Yes, exactly!

Looks like our chance of wintry precip in SE Texas is lessining somewhat, Dallas will probably see some snow, as well as northeast Texas, but next week looks VERY interesting! 18z GFS is interesting anyway. IMO, it may be a close call next week for the SE Texas area as far as wintry precip goes. One thing is for sure, it could get mighty cold!

I hope people take into consideration that these chances of possible snow are not set in stone, and are very hard to predict. For it to snow down here, things have to come together PERFECTLY. Its just that hard. When it is said there is a potential, it does not mean its going to happen. Its simply a forecast. I just hope some people aren't getting there hopes hope up too much, this is such a complex forecast and pattern, long range accuracy will continue to be lower than average.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for letting us know what JB has to say. Indeed, this is a VERY exciting pattern, and I am VERY interested. Next week could become DARN RIGHT COLD for SE Texas. And even the chance of some snow. Don't know if I agree that it will be the most widespread and severe Texas has seen, but this definitely has the potential for snow to reach the coast.

Lots to watch in the coming days!

I just don't think so. Cold...sure. High's in the 40's for sure. Maybe even upper 30's...but right now I'm not seeing the right upper air pattern to tap Siberian Air for us. That may change but right now...that's not the case. It's certainly not a 1989 scenario..and that I say with 1000000% certainty. IN that year...you had -60 and colder temps in Alaska and a 1060mb (and higher) pressures ready to move down. Right now Alaska temps are -20...which is balmy. We need Siberian air and the air pattern setting up will tap it...but send most of it east if it doesn't change. This cold snap will not come close to '89.

[Tyler]

Thanks for letting us know what JB has to say. Indeed, this is a VERY exciting pattern, and I am VERY interested. Next week could become DARN RIGHT COLD for SE Texas. And even the chance of some snow. Don't know if I agree that it will be the most widespread and severe Texas has seen, but this definitely has the potential for snow to reach the coast.

Lots to watch in the coming days!

I just don't think so. Cold...sure. High's in the 40's for sure. Maybe even upper 30's...but right now I'm not seeing the right upper air pattern to tap Siberian Air for us. That may change but right now...that's not the case. It's certainly not a 1989 scenario..and that I say with 1000000% certainty. IN that year...you had -60 and colder temps in Alaska and a 1060mb (and higher) pressures ready to move down. Right now Alaska temps are -20...which is balmy. We need Siberian air and the air pattern setting up will tap it...but send most of it east if it doesn't change. This cold snap will not come close to '89.

I never said the cold snap next week will be close to '89. Also, Alaska's current temps will change by next week, so who knows what they will be by then. There was more to 1989 in the pattern than just really cold temperatures in Canada and Alaska. I think it will be much colder next week, but certainly not 1989. As you said, definitely not a 1989 scenario.

[Air Force Met]

I never said the cold snap next week will be close to '89. Also, Alaska's current temps will change by next week, so who knows what they will be by then. There was more to 1989 in the pattern than just really cold temperatures in Canada and Alaska. I think it will be much colder next week, but certainly not 1989. As you said, definitely not a 1989 scenario.

Yes...more than cold temps....the upper air pattern. Those combined made the cold. Right now...when you really don't have a whole lot of cross polor flow with a massive ridge...and ample cold temps now (yes...it will cool...but it needs to be cold now in order to be cold here in 7 days).

I'll stick for now with an AUstin-CLL-LFK line for a possible ice. Upper 30's-40's for here on Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

I never said the cold snap next week will be close to '89. Also, Alaska's current temps will change by next week, so who knows what they will be by then. There was more to 1989 in the pattern than just really cold temperatures in Canada and Alaska. I think it will be much colder next week, but certainly not 1989. As you said, definitely not a 1989 scenario.

Yes...more than cold temps....the upper air pattern. Those combined made the cold. Right now...when you really don't have a whole lot of cross polor flow with a massive ridge...and ample cold temps now (yes...it will cool...but it needs to be cold now in order to be cold here in 7 days).

I'll stick for now with an AUstin-CLL-LFK line for a possible ice. Upper 30's-40's for here on Tuesday.

Thanks AFM!! As usual, a very unbiased opinion based on sound meteorological data and not a bunch of hype

[aggiecutter]

12z EURO is in. Looks like a classic overrunning situation for Texas on day5, 6 and 7.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

[WhiteShirt]

12z EURO is in. Looks like a classic overrunning situation for Texas on day5, 6 and 7.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

What does that mean? Thanks.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks AFM!! As usual, a very unbiased opinion based on sound meteorological data and not a bunch of hype

Thanks...and you can add to that...it's coming from someone who really wants some snow...badly...terribly...I got 2 little boys and my 6 y.o. is really getting on my case because he thinks it is a given that 8" of snow is going to fall every Christmas now...since it happened last year.

[aggiecutter]

Southwest flow aloft over the cold air.

[Air Force Met]

...and might I add...right now I would settle for a couple of days with highs in the low 30's and a sleet storm with some freezing rain...just to make sure everyone understands I'm not biased against the snow

I do wish we got more than we do...maybe two or three events a year and I would be happy.

[Brent]

12z EURO is in. Looks like a classic overrunning situation for Texas on day5, 6 and 7.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

What does that mean? Thanks.

Ice...

[TexasStooge]

Snow warning for the weekend

By ALAN MELSON / DallasNews.com

North Texas may get some much-needed rain Tuesday night and again this weekend, but it's not likely to lessen the drought gripping the region.

Meanwhile, thousands of travelers who are preparing to depart for vacation destinations may encounter some trouble with the weather, as the National Weather Service's forecast calls for a possibility of rain mixed with snow Friday night into Saturday morning.

NWS meteorologist Joe Harris said there was a 70 percent chance of rain for the overnight hours into Wednesday morning, although it probably will clear up around daybreak. The high temperature Wednesday will be about 63 degrees.

After clear skies Thursday, the forecast calls for another system to swoop down from the Rockies around midday Friday, bringing a chance for rain that night and throughout the day Saturday.

Harris said up to three-quarters of an inch of rain would soak several inches into the cool ground, helping surface vegetation, but it won't make much of a long-term difference. So far this year, only 18.67 inches of precipitation has fallen at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, the region's official recording station, far below the average of 33.18 inches for this time of year.

"We would need well over a foot of rain to alleviate this drought," he said.

At this rate, North Texas is on pace for 2005 to become the fifth-driest on record. In 1921, 17.91 inches were recorded, making that the area's driest recorded year.

The incoming weather systems will bring back the arctic air, dropping temperatures to near freezing Wednesday night. WFAA-TV meteorologist Greg Fields said temperatures will drop over Thursday and Friday and highs will reach only the upper 40s and lows will dip into the 20s by Saturday and Sunday.

The front could mean some snow mixed in with the rain, although Fields said it's too early to tell if that's a strong possibility.

"As for frozen precipitation, that's still up in the air," Fields said.

D/FW spokesman David Magana said the airport is prepared for the influx of holiday travelers, and the chance their flights might be affected by more winter weather.

"Unlike last week's [weather] event, we don't think this will be as bad, though it's a little too early to call it," Magana said. "We're going to be on standby as always."

Love Field operations manager Cliff York said the airport would have extra personnel on call in case of freezing precipitation over the weekend, but added the busiest Christmas travel days won't arrive until the middle of next week.

Luckily, by that time the weather will warm up a bit – just in time for Santa.

"As we move into the Christmas period, starting Wednesday or Thursday, temperatures will be edging up," Harris said.

[Air Force Met]

Southwest flow aloft over the cold air.

Yeah...which down here leads to ice 90% of the time. Overrunning . That's the problem with cold air in SE Texas. It's usually too dry to make anything...and to get moisture you have to have overruning...which warms it up enough to melt the snow and that leaves you with a freezing layer about 2000-4000' thick. I remember one event where it was 28F at the sfc and almost 50F at 850. That was some NICE overrunning.

[jasons2k]

I have mixed feelings. I love the snow (even ice and sleet) so much. I'm like a little kid if the temp gets below 40 with even a hint of precip. I've been that way as long as I can remember.

The odd thing (and I thought I would never feel this way) is this year I don't want any of it. We just moved to Houston and bought a pre-owned home with a lot of tropical vegetation more suited for Florida than SE Texas (such as Majesty Palms). Now when I see a forecast with temperatures anywhere near freezing I freak out. I wrapped my palms last week when it was forecasted to hit 27 and thank goodness the clouds kept us warmer that night.

I'd be quite happy if the rain/snow line set up in Huntsville. Then I could take a short trip to see it, but come home to undamaged landscaping.

I wonder if some of the Houstonians wishing for a 1989-like outbreak realize it will be the end of all the beautiful Queen Palms, Norfolk Pines, Bouganvilla, Hibiscus, etc. that have been planted here in recent years. They'd be wiped-out.

[amawea]

Sorry, Jb is gonna be right. Jschlitz, whats your problem with JB? I've heard the NWS do the same thing except they do it every 12 hrs.
They just wait for the latest gfs model run, and the euro and split the middle. Heh, what's that? And I know all of the jack schlitz family background. From what I've read you don't know schlitz. heh.
Just kidding you jschlitz. Also, Air Force Met you know very well you have to have over running with extemely cold air at all levels to get snow down there, That's a given. It's happened before. JB decribed why the siberian air would get colder on it's trip south.

[Tyler]

VERY INTERESTING 0z GFS RUN:

GFS 0z 162 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

Entire 0z GFS run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

At 162 hour, the 540 line is over Houston, while the 546 is south of Galveston, with 850MB C temps 0 to -3, with plenty of moisture around. Looks like snow to me, though I don't want to mislead anyone. At any rate, looks like a possible very cold outbreak next week, continuing from the 18z run. Also, looks like bitterly cold air ready to pounce on the lower 48 in Canada moving south through 180 hours. Any input from any Pro Mets is welcome!

[jasons2k]

Sorry, Jb is gonna be right. Jschlitz, whats your problem with JB? I've heard the NWS do the same thing except they do it every 12 hrs.
They just wait for the latest gfs model run, and the euro and split the middle. Heh, what's that? And I know all of the jack schlitz family background. From what I've read you don't know schlitz. heh.
Just kidding you jschlitz. Also, Air Force Met you know very well you have to have over running with extemely cold air at all levels to get snow down there, That's a given. It's happened before. JB decribed why the siberian air would get colder on it's trip south.

I wouldn't say I have a problem with JB. I like his columns and have been reading them since 1999. The issue (or "problem" hehe) I have is that I have seen him hype arctic attacks for Texas numerous times and more often than not I was disappointed. Many, many times over the years he has said "worse than 1989", and well, 1989 still stands. He has said the same a few times about 1899 over the years and that too hasn't verified. In summary, I have found that if you buy into JB's predictions for a massive cold wave 'charging down the plains as strong or worse than 1989' most of the time you will be disappointed. I've had to learn that the hard way over the last 6 years.

[southerngale]

Yes, possibly since 1989. Last Christmas, all I saw was two flakes, while miles south of me, they saw 1 to 3 inches. I was so mad!

OUCH! I thought it bad enough we missed out... but just ouch.

Same here, Tyler. I was hopeful the whole day and kept waiting for the heavy stuff, but while Galveston, Freeport, Victoria, Corpus, Brownsville, etc. were getting buried in snow, I had to settle for quite a bit less.

You can see my snowstorm pics in this thread...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ow&start=0

[Air Force Met]

Well major diffs on forecast philosophies this morning from the DFW offices and Houston offices...which isn't a surprise.

The DFW office is going for chance of snow in Robertson county with a high of 38 on Tuesday...while the Houston office is going for a high of 48 and rain just a few miles SE of there in Brazos county. This is not a surprise because the Houston NWS office has ALWAYS been slow when it comes to forecasting cold outbreaks...and I've never understood that. They really need to do some forecast seminars on how to forecast arctic air and cold weather because until it gets within 48-72 hours of arrival...they are just plain terrible. Right now they are going for a high of 56 on Monday and 52 on Tuesday.

Just thought people would find it interesting that basically the DFW office is 10 degrees colder with the forecast than the HOU office is....and I also just checked the forecast for Fayette county...and they are 10 degrees colder than Colorado county...so the Austin/San Antonio office is ALSO 10 degrees colder than the Houston office.

Come on guys. Wake up.