The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[jeff]

Heavy Rainfall threat today.

Potential winter storm event early next week with “frozen” precipitation possible.

Air mass continues to moisten this morning with surface dewpoints well into the 60’s over a large part of the area. Coastal trough has developed being forced by ejecting short wave into TX this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will get going in the next few hours as strong upper air divergence overspreads the region along with the left front quad. of a 100kt jet. PWS have increased to near 1.7 inches which is close to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year and portends a heavy rainfall event. Frontal boundary is expected to slow as it crosses the area prolonging the heavy rainfall and leading to cell training along and ahead of the boundary.


Given Flash Flood Guidance values are high, widespread flooding is not likely, however urban flooding due to high hourly rainfall rates will be possible. Most favored area is along and S of US 59 where moisture is greatest. Widespread 1-2 inches is likely with isolated 3-4 inches possible.


Cold front crosses the area tonight with colder air filing in. Next short wave inducing coastal troughing again by Friday with clouds returning with rain by Friday night and Saturday. Cold, cloudy, and wet day is on tap for Saturday with highs hovering in the 40’s. Not concerned any more about P-type issues this weekend, just a cold rain.


Winter Storm Potential Next Week:

Confidence is growing that much of TX including SE TX may become involved in a large winter storm early next week. GFS has seen the light and come around with the rest of the guidance showing cold arctic air making a southward move late Sunday into Monday. Arctic front with a sprawling 1048mb high should arrive in TX early Monday and reach the coast by late Monday. Cold air will encompass the entire state by Monday evening. Of course there is a short wave within the trough that heads for TX Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture are favorable for precipitation along with good lift. Profiles suggest a mixed bag of all P-types with everything gradually changing to snow by Tuesday evening as the arctic dome deepens. Feel our northern counties will see winter precipitation Tuesday with accumulation, with the main question being how far south the frozen stuff extends. Will not get overly excited just yet, but confidence for freezing or frozen precipitation next week is increasing. Temps. are forecast to remain well below normal through the entire 240 hour forecast period and much below the current GFS values. This could result in whatever falls sticking around for a few days.

[Air Force Met]

Profiles suggest a mixed bag of all P-types with everything gradually changing to snow by Tuesday evening as the arctic dome deepens. Feel our northern counties will see winter precipitation Tuesday with accumulation, with the main question being how far south the frozen stuff extends. Will not get overly excited just yet, but confidence for freezing or frozen precipitation next week is increasing. Temps. are forecast to remain well below normal through the entire 240 hour forecast period and much below the current GFS values. This could result in whatever falls sticking around for a few days.

Not according to the local guys...it's gonna be in the 50's

I think the frozen stuff will be to our north...but I also don't think we will be in the 50's.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well major diffs on forecast philosophies this morning from the DFW offices and Houston offices...which isn't a surprise.

The DFW office is going for chance of snow in Robertson county with a high of 38 on Tuesday...while the Houston office is going for a high of 48 and rain just a few miles SE of there in Brazos county. This is not a surprise because the Houston NWS office has ALWAYS been slow when it comes to forecasting cold outbreaks...and I've never understood that. They really need to do some forecast seminars on how to forecast arctic air and cold weather because until it gets within 48-72 hours of arrival...they are just plain terrible. Right now they are going for a high of 56 on Monday and 52 on Tuesday.

Just thought people would find it interesting that basically the DFW office is 10 degrees colder with the forecast than the HOU office is....and I also just checked the forecast for Fayette county...and they are 10 degrees colder than Colorado county...so the Austin/San Antonio office is ALSO 10 degrees colder than the Houston office.

Come on guys. Wake up.

Unfortuanley instict is something that can't be taught. Portastorm and I have noted that the old timers that used to be at NWS Brownsville used to be able to point out changes in patterns and the potential for a severe outbreak a few weeks out in their AFDs. Now a days you read and AFD from down there and they seem to brush off almost every Arctic front that shows up on the models.

[CaptinCrunch]

Local D/FW forecast have dropped temps for Mon, and Tues of next week to highs reaching only the freezing mark. Trying to get better agreement from all models runs on ULD coming out of the rockies by mid day Monday. This could be a big snow maker for North, and East Texas monday night going into tuesday, could see snow accu. in the 2 to 4 inche mark across D/FW with higher accu. along the RR areas.

[Portastorm]

Well major diffs on forecast philosophies this morning from the DFW offices and Houston offices...which isn't a surprise.

The DFW office is going for chance of snow in Robertson county with a high of 38 on Tuesday...while the Houston office is going for a high of 48 and rain just a few miles SE of there in Brazos county. This is not a surprise because the Houston NWS office has ALWAYS been slow when it comes to forecasting cold outbreaks...and I've never understood that. They really need to do some forecast seminars on how to forecast arctic air and cold weather because until it gets within 48-72 hours of arrival...they are just plain terrible. Right now they are going for a high of 56 on Monday and 52 on Tuesday.

Just thought people would find it interesting that basically the DFW office is 10 degrees colder with the forecast than the HOU office is....and I also just checked the forecast for Fayette county...and they are 10 degrees colder than Colorado county...so the Austin/San Antonio office is ALSO 10 degrees colder than the Houston office.

Come on guys. Wake up.

Unfortuanley instict is something that can't be taught. Portastorm and I have noted that the old timers that used to be at NWS Brownsville used to be able to point out changes in patterns and the potential for a severe outbreak a few weeks out in their AFDs. Now a days you read and AFD from down there and they seem to brush off almost every Arctic front that shows up on the models.

I'm sorry ... maybe I'm too harsh on my local NWS guys in Austin/San Antonio, but I am humored when I read these kinds of posts where my locals look good in comparison to another NWSFO. What does that say about Houston!!

CC is right ... the Brownsville guys used to be kings about recognizing arctic outbreaks. We've talked about it many times. Nowadays it seems like the forecasters in the Fort Worth NWSFO are the best in the state with these types of events. I suppose it also depends on the indivudual forecaster as I sometimes read discussions and think "what are they smoking?"

Where does old-school forecasting and instincts end and model worship begin?

[Portastorm]

On another note, looks like the 0z run of the ECMWF backs off on the cold even more than yesterday. I know it is only one run of a computer model but the trend over the last 24-36 hrs by the Euro has been to moderate earlier thoughts on the depth of cold air.

Anyone see that differently? Just curious ...

[gboudx]

Portastorm, I asked a question back on page 2 about the GFS, but I'd like to ask it again and extend to all models. The models seem to run at 4 different times, at 6 hour intervals. Does each run use the same criteria of data, or do specific runs have more info to digest?

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, I asked a question back on page 2 about the GFS, but I'd like to ask it again and extend to all models. The models seem to run at 4 different times, at 6 hour intervals. Does each run use the same criteria of data, or do specific runs have more info to digest?

That is a darn good question and one for which I haven't a clue. I would defer to the pro mets on our board. Anyone?

[Stratosphere747]

I can't believe that we received almost a foot of snow here in Angleton last year and now there is a possibility *albeit slight* of wintry weather in roughly the same timeframe.

Someone pinch me.....

[vbhoutex]

Portastorm, I asked a question back on page 2 about the GFS, but I'd like to ask it again and extend to all models. The models seem to run at 4 different times, at 6 hour intervals. Does each run use the same criteria of data, or do specific runs have more info to digest?

That is a darn good question and one for which I haven't a clue. I would defer to the pro mets on our board. Anyone?

I don't know the exact answer, but the 0z and 12Z runs of the GFS are more "accurate" than the other 2 runs of the same. I can't speak to the other models.

[jasons2k]

I've noticed over the years when the models keep delaying the onset of Arctic air they tend to be less intense (or non-existent) by the time they arrive.

On the other hand, it's the cold outbreaks that plunge down the plains faster than the models forecast that tend to be more severe.

The outbreak forecasted for early next week was originally supposed to happen this weekend, as early as Friday at one point on the Euro. Hopefully (at least for me) my theory will verify. I'm ready for spring

[aggiecutter]

All the models, including the EURO, will flip flop from run to run when arctic air is involved 4-7 days out. They spray the brunt of it different places from run to run. The bottomline is a Positive PNA and a strongly negative AO favors the brunt of the cold heading down the plains, and that is probably what will happen. However, forcasting winter precipitation in this kind of pattern is a bit problematic.

As far as the GFS runs are concerned, Joe Bastardi said a couple years ago the 0z run was the most reliable, relatively speaking, because more real data was used. I have no idea what he meant by "real data."

[jasons2k]

It's actually a full suite of new data rather than re-using data from the previous run.

[aggiecutter]

Thanks, I always wondered what he meant by more "real data."

[southerngale]

From what I've read, the GFS is now showing snow for Southeast Texas on or about Tuesday, but the ECMWF is backing off?

[Air Force Met]

From what I've read, the GFS is now showing snow for Southeast Texas on or about Tuesday, but the ECMWF is backing off?

Yes...so now expect everyone who was praising the consistancy of the Euro and bashing the GFS to start speaking about how well the GFS is handling the cold air and how the Euro is losing it.

[freeport_texas22]

[jasons2k]

Hehe AFM.

Yep, I couldn't even count how many times the GFS has painted snow all the way into the central GOM from 7-14 days out. 99.99999999% you get your hopes up for nothing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hehe AFM.

Yep, I couldn't even count how many times the GFS has painted snow all the way into the central GOM from 7-14 days out. 99.99999999% you get your hopes up for nothing.

The potential event is only 5-7 days out (Mon. - Wed. timeframe) ... not 7-14. We are not looking at an event 2 weeks away..this one could be here early next week. Plus we are all not only relying on the models..you have to look at the whole picture, not just a computer model...and the overall pattern seems to hint at a better than normal chance of snow during that period.

[CaptinCrunch]

The first of a series of cold fronts for NTX pushed thru about 12 hours ahead of schudel, our high today was forecasted to be in the lower 60's with partly cloudy skies, as it turns out we saw our high for the day come and go around 10am with cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. Current temp at 12:54pm is 48 with a N wind 10-15mph with gust of 22mph.

Second cold front to come in by day break on Saturday, and another even stronger cold front coming in Sunday night.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high around 50. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph.

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain, mixing with snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 31. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 46. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 29.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 38.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Cloudy, with a high around 31.