SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[x-y-no]

That sure looks like a la Nina.

Now let's see if it persists.

[cycloneye]

That sure looks like a la Nina.

Now let's see if it persists.

Yes Jan interesting what is going on in the pacific this combining with what is going on in the Atlantic with the warm waters is cause for concern for another very active Atlantic season in 2006.



Look at that data where the SSTA'S are cooling nicely with readings at -1.5c at el nino 1-2 to -0.5c at el nino 3 area.



Atlantic SSTA'S are warm for being december and again is cause of concern when the 2006 season arrives but it's very early to say with confidence that la nina will be there by next summer or neutral conditions will prevail.I would not call this a true la nina now but really it's very darn close to be.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If I had to guess I'd say we have a bad Cape
Verde season coming up in 2006. Those high SSTAs extend
all the way through the Cape Verde Region!

[Derek Ortt]

let it be an active CV season. Just gives the storms more chance to recurve (of course, some likely will recurve right into North Carolina)

[Coredesat]

Recurves would be good, yes.

Hopefully this doesn't mean anything about any potential offseason activity...does it?

[cycloneye]

In this graphic you can look in a panoramic way the contrasts between the Atlantic which is warmer and the Pacific which is cooler.

[Jim Cantore]

I hope la nina doesnt come back

last time we had it we had hurricanes running wild up the east coast

[MGC]

I hope we have a more active eastern Atlantic season in 2006. It sure would be better than the number of TC that formed in the GOM or near there that moved into the GOM. Let em form way out and recurve....MGC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Even though La Nina is more likely in 2006 than el nino,
what's really wierd is that it feels like an "el nino" in FL with
frequeny rainy cold fronts coming through every few
days and temperatures slightly below normal
like what happened in 1997-1998 winter however
the rain is no where near as intense now as it
was during the 97-98 el nino

Or perhaps I'm just overanalyzing...I was 10 years old during the
97-98 el nino so my memory is limited...

[cycloneye]

The updated weekly SSTA'S in the Atlantic shows warm anomalys at the MDR area between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles.Temps are between +0.5c to +1.5 in that area and just West of the African Coast they are around +2.0c to +2.5c.Let's continue to follow these SSTA'S in the next few months to see how warm those waters will be when the 2006 opens it's curtain.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is interesting that SST anomalies in other locations (besides near Africa and Newfoundland) have moderated/cooled/slowed down the recent rebounding warming trend. That may be some good news - at least temporary good news. However, it is still very early. Still, does anyone notice that?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow SSTS colder than normal in the EGOM!

[quandary]

SSTs are way colder than normal along the east coast, but is that just the result of our recent extremely cold spell?

[MiamiensisWx]

SST anomalies have moderated significantly in other locations in the Atlantic Basin as well. The only big exceptions now are off Newfoundland and western Africa near the Cape Verde Islands. A week or so ago, there were several spots with SST anomalies around 1 degrees Celsius above average. Now, however, there are few. SST anomalies have cooled/moderated again.

It is interesting to note that most of the areas with the highest and most widespread SST anomalies in the Atlantic are mostly around Europe and off Atlantic Canada (such as Newfoundland), with the only other area elsewhere in the Atlantic with significant, above-average SST anomalies is off Africa. It is a paradox that SST anomalies are cooling again in many areas of the Atlantic, yet we are seeing no real clear signs of an El Nino, either.

[P.K.]

From the BoM:
CURRENT STATUS as at 21st December 2005
Next update expected by 4th January 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: Neutral ENSO pattern persists, but with more cooling.

The central to eastern Pacific has continued to cool during the past three weeks, but the full range of ENSO indicators show a neutral situation is persisting. There is a slight chance that with further cooling, the pattern might develop into a La Niña for a brief period, although most computer predictions of ocean temperatures indicate a continuation of neutral conditions until the middle of 2006.

Consistent with the cooling oceans, central Pacific cloudiness has been moderately below normal during December and the Trade Winds have been enhanced around the dateline, especially to the west. However, the SOI has generally stayed close to zero, with an approximate value of −1 for the most recent 30-day period.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

You beat me this time P.K. I always look at that update when it comes out as the Aussies are very good predicting ENSO.As I see for the most part no big changes from the previous update maybe some more cooling in this month but overall neutral conditions prevail.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting... it seems the Pacific wants a La Nina and continues to cool in many areas in the central Pacific, but the Atlantic wants an El Nino instead!

[wxmann_91]

Not a surprise the western tropical Atlantic has cooled down...the heat energy from that area was transferred to Santa land, but the heat energy in the eastern Atlantic was relatively untouched due to the lack of storms there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would have to say a very severe Cape Verde Season
in 2006. Homegrown storms may be big but not as
bad as Cape Verde. Look at those anomalies in the E. Atlantic.
Very Warm.

But cooler than normal close to the EGOM and east coast of the US.

So I would guess a very severe Cape Verde Season, and a more
modest homegrown season.

[cycloneye]

I would have to say a very severe Cape Verde Season
in 2006. Homegrown storms may be big but not as
bad as Cape Verde. Look at those anomalies in the E. Atlantic.
Very Warm.

But cooler than normal close to the EGOM and east coast of the US.

So I would guess a very severe Cape Verde Season, and a more
modest homegrown season.

However you have to see how those SSTA'S look like when June arrives and not think that what is showing now will be the same by next summer as changes may occur.