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Air Force Met wrote:southerngale wrote:From what I've read, the GFS is now showing snow for Southeast Texas on or about Tuesday, but the ECMWF is backing off?
Yes...so now expect everyone who was praising the consistancy of the Euro and bashing the GFS to start speaking about how well the GFS is handling the cold air and how the Euro is losing it.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hehe AFM.
Yep, I couldn't even count how many times the GFS has painted snow all the way into the central GOM from 7-14 days out. 99.99999999% you get your hopes up for nothing.
The potential event is only 5-7 days out (Mon. - Wed. timeframe) ... not 7-14. We are not looking at an event 2 weeks away..this one could be here early next week. Plus we are all not only relying on the models..you have to look at the whole picture, not just a computer model...and the overall pattern seems to hint at a better than normal chance of snow during that period.
jschlitz wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hehe AFM.
Yep, I couldn't even count how many times the GFS has painted snow all the way into the central GOM from 7-14 days out. 99.99999999% you get your hopes up for nothing.
The potential event is only 5-7 days out (Mon. - Wed. timeframe) ... not 7-14. We are not looking at an event 2 weeks away..this one could be here early next week. Plus we are all not only relying on the models..you have to look at the whole picture, not just a computer model...and the overall pattern seems to hint at a better than normal chance of snow during that period.
We shall see. It's not better (if any) from 5-7 either. Actually sometimes the GFS is at its very worst in the 5-7 day time frame. The "potential event" will likely be a NON-event for Metro Houston.
And I disagree with the overall pattern giving us a better-than-normal shot of snow. Sounds like copycating from a JB column to me without truly understanding the meteorology. I don't mean to offend I just call it like I see it.
Models aside, for us, this far south, to have a real shot at snow we need a Siberian airmass and that's not a part of this pattern.
jschlitz wrote:
Models aside, for us, this far south, to have a real shot at snow we need a Siberian airmass and that's not a part of this pattern.
jschlitz wrote:Hey AFM, thanks for your well-reasoned explanation. Yes, I should have included the "Alaska buildup" as when we get Siberian air it's usually just too dry for anything to materialize.
It seems like in many cases when there is a buildup of cold air in Alaska the magic number is -40*F to send TX into a deep freeze.
)....that contain rules of thumb...in other words...if you see this...then expect this ___% of the time. For example...in Houston...expect afternoon thudnerstorms 70% of the time when you have a broken layer of alto cu.
Air Force Met wrote:jschlitz wrote:Hey AFM, thanks for your well-reasoned explanation. Yes, I should have included the "Alaska buildup" as when we get Siberian air it's usually just too dry for anything to materialize.
It seems like in many cases when there is a buildup of cold air in Alaska the magic number is -40*F to send TX into a deep freeze.
Yep. In our LAFP (Local Area Forecast Program) binder we have a lot of rules of thumb. A LAFP is a binder that weather stations used to have...and most still do they just don't use them like they should (naughty...naughty
Concerning arctic air...expect an arctic outbreak when you notice Barrows temp rise above normal by 20 degrees (which is the ridge building) or when you see a 1042mb high in Montana (expect an arctic front w/in 48 hours).
As for high pressures...I like to see a good 1045mb high or great in the valleys of Alaska and -40F as you said.
Johnny wrote:Very good reasoning AFM. What I want to know is...what the heck is JB looking at? What is his reasoning? Do you really think the guy is just hyping this up for ratings? I mean the guy has been a sound met for years and I would think the guy likes to keep a solid reputation. Why are you and JB seeing things differently? I do agree with your reasoning...I just want to know what JB is looking at or what his reasoings are.
Johnny wrote:Gotcha and I think I remember him admitting that one time in one of his videos awhile back BUT the guy is very aware that we do not see snow that often down here in the deep south. IMO he should not be over-hyping this event when alot of people down here in the deep south are taking what he has to say hook, line and sinker and he knows that alot of people are. From what I hear, he is pretty confident in the possibilities of a Texas snow event the beginning of next week all the way down to the coast. Alot of people that buy into his forecast are gonna be in for a big let down. lol
Extremeweatherguy wrote: Barrow Alaska is expected to warm to 16-20 above normal this weekend. The high Sunday should reach 12 (the avg. is -4), and the low is forecast to be near 1 (the avg. is -16). According to you this would be a great enough occurance for an arctic outbreak.
***Weather.com goes even warmer; it forecasts a high of 13 and a low of 4-5 this Sunday in Barrow...ALSO: A 1044+mb High is expected to build into Montana by next Monday.***
jeff wrote:Heavy Rainfall threat today.
Potential winter storm event early next week with “frozen” precipitation possible.
Air mass continues to moisten this morning with surface dewpoints well into the 60’s over a large part of the area. Coastal trough has developed being forced by ejecting short wave into TX this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will get going in the next few hours as strong upper air divergence overspreads the region along with the left front quad. of a 100kt jet. PWS have increased to near 1.7 inches which is close to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year and portends a heavy rainfall event. Frontal boundary is expected to slow as it crosses the area prolonging the heavy rainfall and leading to cell training along and ahead of the boundary.
Given Flash Flood Guidance values are high, widespread flooding is not likely, however urban flooding due to high hourly rainfall rates will be possible. Most favored area is along and S of US 59 where moisture is greatest. Widespread 1-2 inches is likely with isolated 3-4 inches possible.
Cold front crosses the area tonight with colder air filing in. Next short wave inducing coastal troughing again by Friday with clouds returning with rain by Friday night and Saturday. Cold, cloudy, and wet day is on tap for Saturday with highs hovering in the 40’s. Not concerned any more about P-type issues this weekend, just a cold rain.
Winter Storm Potential Next Week:
Confidence is growing that much of TX including SE TX may become involved in a large winter storm early next week. GFS has seen the light and come around with the rest of the guidance showing cold arctic air making a southward move late Sunday into Monday. Arctic front with a sprawling 1048mb high should arrive in TX early Monday and reach the coast by late Monday. Cold air will encompass the entire state by Monday evening. Of course there is a short wave within the trough that heads for TX Tuesday. Mid and high level moisture are favorable for precipitation along with good lift. Profiles suggest a mixed bag of all P-types with everything gradually changing to snow by Tuesday evening as the arctic dome deepens. Feel our northern counties will see winter precipitation Tuesday with accumulation, with the main question being how far south the frozen stuff extends. Will not get overly excited just yet, but confidence for freezing or frozen precipitation next week is increasing. Temps. are forecast to remain well below normal through the entire 240 hour forecast period and much below the current GFS values. This could result in whatever falls sticking around for a few days.
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