The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[Portastorm]

From what I've read, the GFS is now showing snow for Southeast Texas on or about Tuesday, but the ECMWF is backing off?

Yes...so now expect everyone who was praising the consistancy of the Euro and bashing the GFS to start speaking about how well the GFS is handling the cold air and how the Euro is losing it.

C'mon Air Force Met, everyone knows the GFS rules and the Euro drools! The GFS is a superior model ... (ok, I can't write any more without laughing) ...

I still trust the Euro right now in this current pattern. If it backs off on the cold/snow, so be it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest 18UTC run of the GFS still supports a change over from rain to ice to snow on Tues/Wed of next week. This has been consistant for the last many runs. Usually the GFS likes to underestimate arctic fronts though, so it may even be colder then it suggests..but still it brings 850mb temps. down to 0C to -2C by Wednesday. Now I am not ready to trust the GFS on its idea, but I do see a trend.

[Air Force Met]

Latest 18UTC run of the GFS still supports a change over from rain to ice to snow on Tues/Wed of next week. This has been consistant for the last many runs. Usually the GFS likes to underestimate arctic fronts though, so it may even be colder then it suggests..but still it brings 850mb temps. down to 0C to -2C by Wednesday. Now I am not ready to trust the GFS on its idea, but I do see a trend.

The Euro had a trend too...and now it has another trend. The problem is it's not trending the way you want so pick the one the's trending the right way

You got to take the bias outta that forecasting. It's a hard thing to do...but you gotta try.

It only took me a couple of decades to do it...so I'll cut ya some slack

Seriously. Try checking out the Candian as well. Don't bite anything and don't really get any hopes up and think of anything more than 40's until they start to come into better agreement.

[Air Force Met]

OK...Euro back into the cold.
850 temps are -4.0 and thicknesses are 538 on Wed, 12Z...but 850 RH is 32% which means any storm has moved on and dry air is in control. I'll stick with my highs in the low 40's and ice line near CLL for now. I think by Friday we should have a lot better model consistancy on this.

[freeport_texas22]

channel 2 has snow flakes in their forcast maps on tuesday...kinda bold for such a long ways out but who knows!

[Air Force Met]

channel 2 has snow flakes in their forcast maps on tuesday...kinda bold for such a long ways out but who knows!

He takes risks every once in a while. I like it even when he's wrong...because most of those TV guys (not just in houston) copy the NWS forecast and get paid 6 figures to do it.

[freeport_texas22]

he showed the polar jet come right over houston then had snow plowing down lol...it may hapen... may not who knows!

[freeport_texas22]

channel 13 just said watch out monday n to tuesday...he said could be sleet...and maybe...and i quote..:sssss...i dont really wanna say it but maybe some sss..snow mixed in with the rain"

[Tyler]

OK...Euro back into the cold.
850 temps are -4.0 and thicknesses are 538 on Wed, 12Z...but 850 RH is 32% which means any storm has moved on and dry air is in control. I'll stick with my highs in the low 40's and ice line near CLL for now. I think by Friday we should have a lot better model consistancy on this.

Thanks for your thoughts. I think its really cool to hear different pro mets opinions on situations like next week. Jeff said the snow may reach Houston, while you say the line will be up near College Station. It will be very interesting to see who turns out right!

Here is my WISHcast: It will turn bitterly cold Tuesday with a chance of snow!

[freeport_texas22]

Jeff said the snow may reach Houston, while you say the line will be up near College Station. It will be very interesting to see who turns out right

i dont want it to reach houston i want it to go past houston into brazoria county! i want sum to

[Air Force Met]

OK...Euro back into the cold.
850 temps are -4.0 and thicknesses are 538 on Wed, 12Z...but 850 RH is 32% which means any storm has moved on and dry air is in control. I'll stick with my highs in the low 40's and ice line near CLL for now. I think by Friday we should have a lot better model consistancy on this.

Thanks for your thoughts. I think its really cool to hear different pro mets opinions on situations like next week. Jeff said the snow may reach Houston, while you say the line will be up near College Station. It will be very interesting to see who turns out right!

Here is my WISHcast: It will turn bitterly cold Tuesday with a chance of snow!

I think it may get cold...but not before the precip moves out. That's my deal. I don't think the cold air is there when the precip is there. It doesn't seem to line up at the right time. But...we are still talking 6 days out here...so...who really knows.

[jeff]

Good grief what a rain event today. Quite busy at the office with the flooding issues I turn everything over to AFM as I have no time to look at the latest guidance. Last GFS run I saw (the 12Z I think) looked warmer.

I may try to post something on the event tomorrow if I have time. Lots of post storm stuff to take care of.

[Brent]

Good grief what a rain event today. Quite busy at the office with the flooding issues I turn everything over to AFM as I have no time to look at the latest guidance. Last GFS run I saw (the 12Z I think) looked warmer.

I may try to post something on the event tomorrow if I have time. Lots of post storm stuff to take care of.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL...

AS OF 4 PM...HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 5.56
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR DAILY RAINFALL FOR
DECEMBER 14TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY RAINFALL WAS 1.80
INCHES...SET IN 1960.

[PTrackerLA]

Let me add that today's rain event was GREATLY needed for our areas. Rainfall deficits from the first of the year are running 10"-20" below normal. We received 2-2 1/2 inches of rain in my area so far. Funny how the pattern likes to turn wet when nothing is growing anymore though .

Hopefully we get a shot at some winter precip next week, it would be nice to see some snow after a rough year weather-wise. Unfortunately we'll probably be warming up nicely by the time Christmas rolls around.

[aggiecutter]

This forcast discussion from the NWS office in Shreveport is pretty funny. Checkout the last couple lines.

FXUS64 KSHV 142100
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN EVENT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF
OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COME BY ON SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH AN EMPHASIS OF RAIN
SOUTH OF I 20. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BETWEEN ALL OF THESE WEATHER MAKERS
WE WILL FIND GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

NOW AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GFS SHOWS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INDUCING
UPSLOPE FLOW LEE OF ROCKIES...RIGHT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN OUR EAST TEXAS AREA...
MORE QPF WILL BE AVAILABLE IN CWA/S TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLD THICKNESSES WILL
HELP THE CLOUDS SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY IN NE TX. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS GREATLY TO
HELP THE WHOLE PICTURE MESH. THE QPF FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN A LITTLE EAST THIS TIME...A LITTLE WEST LAST TIME...AND WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN TIMING AND POSITION AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS...AND WHO KNOWS...THE FEATURE MAY NEVER QUITE MATERIALIZE.
BUT WHO IS AFRAID OF A 20 PERCENT LIGHT SNOW POP ON DAY 6 ANYWAY?
NOT ME...NOSIRREE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

channel 2 has snow flakes in their forcast maps on tuesday...kinda bold for such a long ways out but who knows!

Can't believe the media outlets are mentioning the threat so soon. May be this is a better sign that something could happen? Either way, snow or no snow, some more cold weather would be great around the holidays. With the look of the latest Euro...a very cold night may be in store next Tuesday and/or Wednesday if skies are clear. Can't wait!

[freeport_texas22]

With the look of the latest Euro...a very cold night may be in store next Tuesday and/or Wednesday if skies are clear. Can't wait!

we dont want clear skies we want precip!

[KatDaddy]

The Great Snow of 2004 was awesome. Being 37 this year and living here all my life I knew that was a TRUELY amazing event. I rode the snow train of hope for many years since my first memorable snow in 1973 and it never materialized. A few flakes here and there.......1973, 1982, 1985, 1994. Believe me it will be many many years before we see another snowfall along the Upper TX Coast. If and a big if should we get another this year I would be completely amazed. It just does not snow along the Upper TX Coast often.

Still dreaming of the 1895 snowstorm.

[Air Force Met]

Good grief what a rain event today. Quite busy at the office with the flooding issues I turn everything over to AFM as I have no time to look at the latest guidance. Last GFS run I saw (the 12Z I think) looked warmer.

I may try to post something on the event tomorrow if I have time. Lots of post storm stuff to take care of.

Yeah busy. I was on the phone with Barksdale at 10 am trying to get them to put out a 2" in 12 hours heavy rain warning and they wouldn't do it. They thought we would get light rain.

Go figure.

[Portastorm]

Will wonders never cease ... look whose jumped on board the Texas Snow Train tonight ... our friends in Brownsville NWS:

SN ALGORITHM FM GFS RECOGNIZES POTENTIAL FOR SN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RGV TUE AM THRU EARLY WED. A CONTINUED MONITORING OF FRIGID AMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR IN PLACE...WILL BE NECESSARY TO ELIMINATE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR. ATTM...MDLS ONLY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL.