The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[Brent]

Good grief what a rain event today. Quite busy at the office with the flooding issues I turn everything over to AFM as I have no time to look at the latest guidance. Last GFS run I saw (the 12Z I think) looked warmer.

I may try to post something on the event tomorrow if I have time. Lots of post storm stuff to take care of.

Yeah busy. I was on the phone with Barksdale at 10 am trying to get them to put out a 2" in 12 hours heavy rain warning and they wouldn't do it. They thought we would get light rain.

Go figure.

Safe to say they were wrong...

[southerngale]

The Great Snow of 2004 was awesome. Being 37 this year and living here all my life I knew that was a TRUELY amazing event. I rode the snow train of hope for many years since my first memorable snow in 1973 and it never materialized. A few flakes here and there.......1973, 1982, 1985, 1994. Believe me it will be many many years before we see another snowfall along the Upper TX Coast. If and a big if should we get another this year I would be completely amazed. It just does not snow along the Upper TX Coast often.

Still dreaming of the 1895 snowstorm.

But...

Since I'm also on the Upper Texas Coast and I have been riding the snow train as well waiting for a memorable snow and mine still hasn't materialized (my biggest snowball last Christmas was about dime-sized ), then I'm still due mine, right? Maybe if you're lucky, you can get in on some of mine when it gets here. Now that's a plan!

[KatDaddy]

Yes SG you are correct and I am in with the plan. Its got to be about time for another 1895 snowstorm in which case we will ALL get the snowstorm of our lives.

[freeport_texas22]

dose anyone know if JB is still preaching about the "Snowstorm of the Century," for texas or has he changed his mind?

[PTrackerLA]

Local met here is starting to mention the possibility. This is what Rob Perillo from Channel 3 in Lafayette had to say.

"Another weather system could bring some precipitation back into the fray by Tuesday, while colder air tries to move in. That could set the stage for the possibility of a wintry mix Tuesday night, especially over Central Louisiana…that’s if enough moisture lingers behind the next system (a big if!). It should certainly feel like winter through the end of next week with milder conditions returning Christmas weekend and some rain possible Christmas Eve or Day."

Rob Perillo

[Extremeweatherguy]

I lived in Raleigh, NC during the January 2000 blizzard. It was the largest snowstorm in 107 years for the city. I recieved 24" of snow at my house in less than 16 hrs!!! Raleigh has very few snow plows (my street was not plowed for 6 days) and the snow stayed on the ground for about 2 weeks! Raleigh completly shut down during that storm. Schools closed for 9 days and most offices were closed for 3+ days. If the same scenario occured in Houston (which it did in 1895); then the city would see even more chaos then I did in Raleigh. With no snow plows, all the roads would be un-passable until natural melting occured, which in 1895 took 9+ days. It would be quite exciting though, many places (except the snowbelts of the great lakes) rarely see snowfalls like that...so to have a snowfall like that in a place that usually should not see it would be awsome!

[Portastorm]

dose anyone know if JB is still preaching about the "Snowstorm of the Century," for texas or has he changed his mind?

He has not changed his reasoning on the overall pattern development but the language about portions of south and east Texas being "encased in ice" has abated. He does feel strongly that the GFS is "out to lunch" on the pattern as a whole.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Will wonders never cease ... look whose jumped on board the Texas Snow Train tonight ... our friends in Brownsville NWS:

SN ALGORITHM FM GFS RECOGNIZES POTENTIAL FOR SN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RGV TUE AM THRU EARLY WED. A CONTINUED MONITORING OF FRIGID AMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR IN PLACE...WILL BE NECESSARY TO ELIMINATE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR. ATTM...MDLS ONLY SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL.

That is so funny. You think maybe one of the old timers came in to fill in for someone on vacation? Either that or JB is on the job down in Brownsville tonight.

[jasons2k]

I lived in Raleigh, NC during the January 2000 blizzard. It was the largest snowstorm in 107 years for the city. I recieved 24" of snow at my house in less than 16 hrs!!! Raleigh has very few snow plows (my street was not plowed for 6 days) and the snow stayed on the ground for about 2 weeks! Raleigh completly shut down during that storm. Schools closed for 9 days and most offices were closed for 3+ days. If the same scenario occured in Houston (which it did in 1895); then the city would see even more chaos then I did in Raleigh. With no snow plows, all the roads would be un-passable until natural melting occured, which in 1895 took 9+ days. It would be quite exciting though, many places (except the snowbelts of the great lakes) rarely see snowfalls like that...so to have a snowfall like that in a place that usually should not see it would be awsome!

I was in the "Storm of the Century" in 1993 in Birmingham, AL. We broke the all-time snowfall record (13" officially) and had about 16" at our house.

It was awesome for about 6 hours.

Some of the things we experienced, that a place like Houston might experience:

No power for a week
No HEAT for a week
No phone for a week
No cable for 2 weeks
Massive tree and branch loss (they are not used to such snows)
Carrot-top (yes, the comedian) lost all of his props when the Improv burned down
Thousands trapped on the roadways had to be rescued by the National Guard in Humvees; many sent to the hospital with frostbite and hypothermia
Many houses burned down because they were unreachable (roads impassible)
As a whole: The storm caused $3 billion in damage, killing an estimated 270 people. According to The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) that death toll is more than three times the combined number of deaths attributed to Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew.

Yeah, sounds awesome to me...I just can't wait for my power to go out, my heat to get cut off, and most of my palm trees to die. Yipee!!

[Brent]

I'll take a repeat of the blizzard as long as the power, cable, and heat remain on. I remember it... vaguely(I was not even 5 yet). I wish I could see half that amount of snow...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Channel 11 (KHOU), Channel 12 (KPRC) and Channel 13 (KTRK) all mentioned the "possibility" of snow or sleet next Tuesday on the 10pm news. I love it when they show this kind of stuff on TV because it means that there is probably an elevated threat (they don't usually mention these threats this early) I hope it plays out!

[boca]

I hope everyone in Texas gets snow since I can't here in Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope everyone in Texas gets snow since I can't here in Florida.

May be one day in the future you will. It happened that far south in 1977;who knows? may be this January will bring a repeat of that crazy event.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Troy Duncan channel 8 here in NTX mentioned the "S" word for Tuesday as well and said it would be very cold Tuesday. The 5 day forecast only went until Monday, so for him to mention the possiblity it is worth noting.
He even has light frozen for Friday nite and Sat. night but only said light. When he mentioned Tuesday he hinted of some accumulation but said its still early to be talking about it just yet. However it will be Much Colder by Tuesday. Can't wait for his 5 day forecast tomorrow with the Tuesday included.
Also Heard from my sister in Alaska and she said it has been very warm up on the coast of Alaska with temps in the 40's. So where is this cold coming from? Canada? And will it be around for awhile or modify and warm up for Christmas? This is a strange Dec. I remember 83 and 89 not quite that cold but weird start for this month.

[m_ru]

I for one am not that crazy about snow since I haven't really experienced a good snow storm before, but a good solid ice storm that snaps lots of large limbs out of the trees and makes the power go out for a couple of days would be lovely We've had them in the past and we're way past due for one. Hopefully we'll have one this winter here in Huntsville. I love winter weather!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION TODAY. IT HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY LAST 12 HOURS WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 30S. WINDS
HAS DECREASED A BIT INLAND ALTHOUGH 500 M WINDS ALOFT STILL
RUNNING 35-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
APPROACH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO NORTHEAST OF REGION AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE CONSIDERABLY BY SATURDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN ZONES. SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. PW VALUES PROGGED BY MODELS INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8
INCHES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE.
WITH COOL LOWER LEVEL LAYER...PWATS INLAND AREAS LOWER...RANGING
FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR COAST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STABLE PROFILE BUT
QUITE SATURATED SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
REGION WILL UNDER RR QUAD OF UPPER JET CORE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES BECOMING
SURFACE BASED OVER COASTAL WATERS. IT WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT MONDAY. GFS INDICATE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BECOMING QUITE MOIST TUESDAY AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO BECOME NEARLY SATURATED WITH TEMP PROFILE NEAR 0
DEG C (FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB). THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO
THRESHOLD FOR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW... WE SHALL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE -S NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THIS PERIOD. 37
&&

[gboudx]

Not sure what's going on with DFW NWS. They've raised the temps next week and have pretty much shutdown the idea of snow in the early morning AFD.

[Air Force Met]

Not sure what's going on with DFW NWS. They've raised the temps next week and have pretty much shutdown the idea of snow in the early morning AFD.

Yeah they did...and the forecasts reflect it. They took the took the snow forecast and body slammed it....so did the SAT/AUS guys...they've taken the mention of it out too south of Round Rock.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not sure what's going on with DFW NWS. They've raised the temps next week and have pretty much shutdown the idea of snow in the early morning AFD.

Doesn't look that way to me:

.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005
WARM DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY PRECIP LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND RAIN WITH A
BIT OF SLUSH MIXED IN NORTH OF THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
WHILE PRECIP PRODUCING LAYER IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT IS
GENERALLY WARMER THAN -5C AND THAT WOULD MAKE THE PRECIP MORE A
LIQUID RATHER THAN ICE PHASE PROCESS. SOME FREEZING WILL OCCUR ON
DESCENT AND THAT/S WHY I EXPECT SOME SLUSH MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IN
THE MORNING. BY MID MORNING NORTHERN HALF IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ONLY. ONCE AGAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAVING A CHANCE OF
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT CAN GET SQUEEZED OUT WILL FALL AS
SNOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHERE WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE. AFTER TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE BACK TO
THE DRY REGIME AGAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. /84

They don't shutdown the idea of snow. In fact, it actually looks like they are still expecting it.

[jasons2k]

SATURDAY PRECIP LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN SOUTH OF I-20

I believe this is talking about RAIN if you read the whole sentence:

BY MID MORNING NORTHERN HALF IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ONLY. ONCE AGAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAVING A CHANCE OF DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.

And when it is cold enough:
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE.

Doesn't sound promising to me at all.