The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[jkt21787]

Well, donkey butts!

I was away from my computer all morning and didn't get to check in, then heard the local news at noon, and he was definitely hinting at snow here either Tuesday or Wednesday next week. It gave me the impression our chances were increasing, not decreasing.

Well you will still have good moisture around in your area, downside is that you will be a good bit warmer, so all rain for you. I believe HGX was saying this afternoon that far NW counties still had a slight chance for some wintry too.

Yeah, I'm not in a far NW county. But, one thing is almost certain: whatever is predicted at this moment for days 5 and 6 won't be exactly the way it happens so maybe things will change for the snowy better.

Of course, I'm not holding my breath, but I will keep my Snow Train ticket handy, just in case.

That's true. This far out, I'd rather be forecasted to not have snow rather than it be forecasted. Because chances are it will change some if not a lot.

[Air Force Met]

I still wish someone could tell me why the GFS is forecasting more rain over SE Texas but lower RH's from the sfc through 10K'. It makes no sense. That could be a bad run...

[southerngale]

I still wish someone could tell me why the GFS is forecasting more rain over SE Texas but lower RH's from the sfc through 10K'. It makes no sense. That could be a bad run...

I would tell you if I had a clue what you were talking about.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP WINTER-TIME UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES IS UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A WEAKENING LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...AND AREAWIDE WITH A WARMER NOSE FORMING DURING THE
SATURDAY.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EXTENDS FAR INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY THIS
WEEKEND...THUS FORMING A MCFARLAND PATTERN. THIS SHOULD TRANSPORT
ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHORT NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS THE WEST RIDGE AND MOVES
ACROSS TEXAS. BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS AND
UP TO 1/3 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
A WET SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE QUARTER TUESDAY AND BASICALLY LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR MAJOR TRAVEL
PROBLEMS DOWN SOUTH NEXT TUESDAY.

[jkt21787]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP WINTER-TIME UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES IS UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A WEAKENING LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...AND AREAWIDE WITH A WARMER NOSE FORMING DURING THE
SATURDAY.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EXTENDS FAR INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY THIS
WEEKEND...THUS FORMING A MCFARLAND PATTERN. THIS SHOULD TRANSPORT
ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHORT NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS THE WEST RIDGE AND MOVES
ACROSS TEXAS. BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS AND
UP TO 1/3 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
A WET SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE QUARTER TUESDAY AND BASICALLY LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR MAJOR TRAVEL
PROBLEMS DOWN SOUTH NEXT TUESDAY.

We were talking about this a bit on the previous page. Definitely making a point to say its not a very big deal, though some winter precip is possible.

[Air Force Met]

I still wish someone could tell me why the GFS is forecasting more rain over SE Texas but lower RH's from the sfc through 10K'. It makes no sense. That could be a bad run...

I would tell you if I had a clue what you were talking about.

Well...the 12Z run of the GFS is putting down more rain for the area than the 00Z run of the GFS. But...the relative humidities are in the 50-60% range from about 1000'-about 7000' and occasionally higher. When it's raining...the air becomes saturated. Now...just because it's raining doesn't mean the humidity is 10% but on the 00Z run the humidity was 90%+ throughout the column of air...now the atmosphere is drier...but we are getting more rain. The temps are also warmer.

This leads to several forecast problems. First of all is: Will it really rain that much? Second...if it does...then the RH's will certainly be higher and in order for THAT to happen...you have to evaporate the precip to moisten the column...which lowers the temp...which means the 12Z run is too warm by a few degrees...which means you basically has teh same temp profile as the 00Z run but with more precip.

For instance...and this just a simple number crunch. 850 MB temps of 1C over NW Houston will warm the snow...as I've talked about in the other thread. The 12Z temps are 4C. BUt if the rain really does happen and the RH is really 50-60% in that area...it will moisten and the temp-dewpoints will converge in about the 1C range...so about the same area. 0C temps over Hunstville at the coldest leads to snow near 06Z...but the 12Z run has the temps at 3C. Evaporate that and you get it down to 0C...but with more precip which means a more significant event.

So that's why the RH question is a biggie. Either the RH on the model is wrong or the precip is wrong.

Hope that answered your question as to what I was talking about

But...at 12Z the forecast is

[Portastorm]

Yeah baby ... the "S" word is mentioned for the first time our our forecast! In lieu of this news, I am now just about certain it'll NEVER happen!

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

[plainsman]

heres what will happen next week all rain for south plains and southeast.. all rain in south east Tx and louisiana snow in the panhandle of tx and oklahoma..... rain/snow mix in the dallas area... and wet snow in west tx... wintry mix possible for far northern parts of the southeast. Texas is more then just north south west and southeast Texas.. theres the panhandle which gets 20-30 inches of snow a year and is winters compare to kc and omaha there... theres 3000 ft of elevation there.. whoever put no snow in Tx next week is wrong... the panhandle of tx will see snow for sure.. west around odessa and abilene maybe and the big bend in marfa more than likely will see snow.. Dallas is 50/50 but more then likely will see some wet snow.... blue northers bring cold air much further south into Texas then the south east areas of the same latitude.. it happens every year... they dont even have to be that arctic. san antonio which is way south in texas sees some type of wintry precip every yr. and its about as far north as new orleans and mobile alabama.they already had a good ice event december 6th or 7th around there..

[Air Force Met]

Yeah baby ... the "S" word is mentioned for the first time our our forecast! In lieu of this news, I am now just about certain it'll NEVER happen!

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

Hey...you heard it here a couple of days ago....
"OK...my initial git cal on this is no snow/ice for any place next week south of Austin-CLL-LFK. I'm not positive about that right now but I'm not sold that the air is that cold. "

But I'm still watching...we'll see.

[Portastorm]

From the Austin/San Antonio NWS office, just issued:

A LARGER SNOW EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FORCING CANADIAN AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS DOWNPLAYED BY THE LATER RUNS OF THE GFS
THROUGH THE WARMING TREND, BUT THE COOLER DGEX SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM AS THE GFS BUT WITH COLDER AIR. ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO
SUPPORT THE COOLER MINS. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF SNOW TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND FOLLOW THE GFS INTERPRETATION THAT THE WINTER
PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE SNOW IF IT HAPPENS.


I take back all of the nasty things I've said about EWX in the past.

Best NWSFO in the state ... hands down ...

[southerngale]

I still wish someone could tell me why the GFS is forecasting more rain over SE Texas but lower RH's from the sfc through 10K'. It makes no sense. That could be a bad run...

Hope that answered your question as to what I was talking about

But...at 12Z the forecast is

Yes, actually. It was very helpful. Now I want to know why too!


Edit: psst... the last line cuts off

[southerngale]

From the Austin/San Antonio NWS office, just issued:

A LARGER SNOW EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FORCING CANADIAN AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS DOWNPLAYED BY THE LATER RUNS OF THE GFS
THROUGH THE WARMING TREND, BUT THE COOLER DGEX SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM AS THE GFS BUT WITH COLDER AIR. ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO
SUPPORT THE COOLER MINS. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF SNOW TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND FOLLOW THE GFS INTERPRETATION THAT THE WINTER
PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE SNOW IF IT HAPPENS.


I take back all of the nasty things I've said about EWX in the past.

Best NWSFO in the state ... hands down ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

May be Central and SE Texas will see snow after all! I just hope that for some reason we get much colder than expected and there is lots of precip. around. How crazy would it be to wake up to a few inches of snow next Wednesday and it not be expected! Well the chances of that are slim to none, but hey I can wish can't I? lol.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

A quick look at the AFD's this afternoon it sounds like at the very least, most of the NWS offices are expecting the GFS output numbers to bust. And that is surprising this far out. During the last cold snap, quite a few of the offices were sticking to the numbers or slightly below them pretty close to the actual front. And I notice they are not quick to want to warm things up too. It should be interesting to see where the numbers actually end up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[quote="Portastorm"]THE COOLER DGEX SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORM SYSTEM AS THE GFS BUT WITH COLDER AIR.
quote] ***This should be a quote, but it is not working?

Yes, the DGEX does look MUCH colder (just checked it out on accuweather professional). It has a snowstorm starting in west Texas and moving east through the state. Looking at it's projected accumulation map, about an inch could fall in places like Austin and Houston (may be more since there would be enough moisture) if it played out. Looks interesting. The DGEX is primarily a winter model too, so it may be more accurate than others in predicting winter events.

[Air Force Met]

May be Central and SE Texas will see snow after all! I just hope that for some reason we get much colder than expected and there is lots of precip. around. How crazy would it be to wake up to a few inches of snow next Wednesday and it not be expected! Well the chances of that are slim to none, but hey I can wish can't I? lol.

SE Texas may see snow...if you include CLL and huntsville in SE Texas....not Houston or Conroe.

[Brent]

Yeah baby ... the "S" word is mentioned for the first time our our forecast! In lieu of this news, I am now just about certain it'll NEVER happen!

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.

Yeah... the first mention of snow was put into the forecast here yesterday afternoon, and on this afternoon's package, all gone.

[Air Force Met]

Yes, the DGEX does look MUCH colder (just checked it out on accuweather professional). It has a snowstorm starting in west Texas and moving east through the state. Looking at it's projected accumulation map, about an inch could fall in places like Austin and Houston (may be more since there would be enough moisture) if it played out. Looks interesting. The DGEX is primarily a winter model too, so it may be more accurate than others in predicting winter events.

The DGEX I'm seeing is from 06Z last night. Got to wait a while before the new run.

But...even looking at the 06Z map you see a problem. Don't just look at the projected accumulation map...look at the conditionals. THe snow doesn't come even close to Houston. The closest approach is CLL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, the DGEX does look MUCH colder (just checked it out on accuweather professional). It has a snowstorm starting in west Texas and moving east through the state. Looking at it's projected accumulation map, about an inch could fall in places like Austin and Houston (may be more since there would be enough moisture) if it played out. Looks interesting. The DGEX is primarily a winter model too, so it may be more accurate than others in predicting winter events.

The DGEX I'm seeing is from 06Z last night. Got to wait a while before the new run.

But...even looking at the 06Z map you see a problem. Don't just look at the projected accumulation map...look at the conditionals. THe snow doesn't come even close to Houston. The closest approach is CLL.

The 18Z just came in and it has all the snow/ice mainly to our west. So now it does not look like our area would see snow/ice (according to the 18Z run). The latest DGEX is weird though in that it pulls the 540 thickness line back to the extreme NE USA. I doubt that this would happen. I think something is wrong in this run. The weird thing also is that even though the 540 thickness is in Maine and New Hampshire, that snow is still on the model in west Texas? I think we need to wait until the 6Z run of the DGEX, because this run seems messed up. BTW the 18Z GFS looks a tad cooler than the 12Z and brings the 546 thickness line to Galveston bay on Wednesday.

[jasons2k]

heres what will happen next week all rain for south plains and southeast.. all rain in south east Tx and louisiana snow in the panhandle of tx and oklahoma..... rain/snow mix in the dallas area... and wet snow in west tx... wintry mix possible for far northern parts of the southeast. Texas is more then just north south west and southeast Texas.. theres the panhandle which gets 20-30 inches of snow a year and is winters compare to kc and omaha there... theres 3000 ft of elevation there.. whoever put no snow in Tx next week is wrong... the panhandle of tx will see snow for sure.. west around odessa and abilene maybe and the big bend in marfa more than likely will see snow.. Dallas is 50/50 but more then likely will see some wet snow.... blue northers bring cold air much further south into Texas then the south east areas of the same latitude.. it happens every year... they dont even have to be that arctic. san antonio which is way south in texas sees some type of wintry precip every yr. and its about as far north as new orleans and mobile alabama.they already had a good ice event december 6th or 7th around there..

That ice event was very unusual for San Antonio; they very rarely get any wintry precipitation, certainly not every year. Heck when I lived in DFW we went many years with no wintry precip. at all.

My wife was born in San Antonio and the only time she ever saw snow was in 1985 - and that was by taking a road trip up I-10, into the Hill Country, past Boerne.