The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, even as the models seem to show no major widespread snow event for metro Houston, and even when the NWS is not shouting "snow!", our local on air mets sure are. Channel 12 and Channel 13 have both put a symbol for rain/snow on their forecast for next week. Channel 12 said "mainly north of Houston", but Channel 13 said possibly even to Houston metro. This seems odd in that the last system looked like there was a better chance of wintry weather down here, and they didnt say snow, but for this system they are. Who knows...may be it's a sign; they seem very serious when they say that there is a chance and they have mentioned it for the last two days. Its interesting for sure...

[freeport_texas22]

woudlent get anything in brazoria county would we?..prolly not

[aggiecutter]

The DGEX is just an extension of the ETA, NAM, with GFS data used past 84 hours.

[southerngale]

The same local station that was giggling and hinting at snow next Tues/Wed at noon today is now saying precip should be in liquid form as temps should hold above freezing. (different person though)

I give up. I've done flown off the see-saw too many times.

[Brent]

I give up. I've done flown off the see-saw too many times.

It's so dang addictive though...

[Air Force Met]

The 18Z just came in and it has all the snow/ice mainly to our west. So now it does not look like our area would see snow/ice (according to the 18Z run). The latest DGEX is weird though in that it pulls the 540 thickness line back to the extreme NE USA. I doubt that this would happen. I think something is wrong in this run. The weird thing also is that even though the 540 thickness is in Maine and New Hampshire, that snow is still on the model in west Texas? I think we need to wait until the 6Z run of the DGEX, because this run seems messed up. BTW the 18Z GFS looks a tad cooler than the 12Z and brings the 546 thickness line to Galveston bay on Wednesday.

You gotta remember that the 540 line isn't some magical snow line. It's also not a measure of temperature. It's simply a measure of differnce in thickness levels. So the reason you aren't seeing a low thickness is the pressures aren't that high at the 1000mb level and the 500 mb pressures aren't that low. 540 is just a rule. It's not the temp. You can get snow at 546 if the temps are right. You can get rain at 534 if the temps are wrong. For Instance...say you have a real deep low moving over at 500...but air isn't that cold...you may have a 534 thickness but thickness doesn't measure air temp..it measures thickness of the atmosphere....so there is some give and tacke there.

So...you gotta remember that just because you see 540 don't assume snow and just because you see 546...don't assume rain. When I see 540-546 in SETX...I start looking closer at what the actual temps will be, because that's what will determine snow...not the thickness levels. Look at the temps in the column...are there warm layers to melt it?

Here are the general rules: Is the warm layer above 3C? Snow will melt totally and fall as freezing rain unless the warm layer is well above the sfc and there is sufficient cold layer to refreeze it to sleet. Is the warm layer depth greater than 1200'? Snow will melt totally. If warm layer is below 1C...than snow will partially melt and then refreeze. Walla...snow grains. A warm layer of 1-3C will partially melt it into sleet and snow grains...depending on the depth and temps.

The first thing you look at is thickness. Once you think you MAY have an event, forget thickness. Don't look at it any more. It's not accurate enough of a tool to give you an idea of snow or no snow. It can't tell you if it will melt due to a warm layer. It can't tell you if there is enough cold air in the column. Thickness is your first look tool only. After you get an idea...move along to the analysis of the air column and don't waste your time on thickness because rain doesn't turn to snow at 540 thickness and snow doesn't change to rain or sleet at 541.

[Air Force Met]

OK...JB backs off the Cold talk...he pulls up before he plows in.

"...But the cold I am talking about is not going to get re-enforced so the core of cold comes in a shorter span..."

"...Next week right now does not look the way I thought it would, but that doesnt mean its time to abandon completely what I am thinking..."

"...In any case this is what I had laid the egg nog into one cup on for the pre Christmas " I-AM-SANTA-CLAUSE- ( the take off on I am Iron Man that is out) storm before Christmas. While it doesnt look good for this model wise, there is still enough room for this to make its comeback, and you know me, the last thing I do is abandon an idea until it abandons me..."

"...The cold is not as long and strong, though its is short and sharp. The extreme that could have happened is backing the other. This will have to be looked at closely as to the whether this a turn away from what has been going on, and of course that means that the longer range ideas have to be looked at closely.

After all, to get this overall winter forecast right, there has to be some swing back...."


Think that settles the JB debate on this cold snap.

[Johnny]

I sure do appreciate the analysis you are putting out AFM but I also am waiting for you to change your tune in a more positive direction.

Last week us here in Southeast, Texas were not supposed to see any freezing precip what so ever if I'm not mistaken. Thursday morning my father in law called me from his office just north of Conroe (right beside I-45) and said it was snowing. Yea right so I told him to let me talk to his secretary. She said it was and she said she didn't even have to strain her eyes to see it. She said it was beautiful. Later on that evening my father in law said it lasted for about 45 minutes.

If I'm not mistaken, we had a warm layer in the upper levels over us at the time but we were still able to squeeze out some snow flurries? Their were other reports of decent snow flurries around southeast, Texas that morning also. I looked at the radar that morning and their was nothing on it? I guess anything is possible.

[Air Force Met]

I sure do appreciate the analysis you are putting out AFM but I also am waiting for you to change your tune in a more positive direction.

Last week us here in Southeast, Texas were not supposed to see any freezing precip what so ever if I'm not mistaken. Thursday morning my father in law called me from his office just north of Conroe (right beside I-45) and said it was snowing. Yea right so I told him to let me talk to his secretary. She said it was and she said she didn't even have to strain her eyes to see it. She said it was beautiful. Later on that evening my father in law said it lasted for about 45 minutes.

If I'm not mistaken, we had a warm layer in the upper levels over us at the time but we were still able to squeeze out some snow flurries? Their were other reports of decent snow flurries around southeast, Texas that morning also. I looked at the radar that morning and their was nothing on it? I guess anything is possible.

I can only call it as I see it

I can also tell you this...If there were snow flurries, I can promise you 2 things...1st...it was at least below freezing within about 1000' of the sfc. 1200' AGL is the max under ideal conditions the freezing level can be before snow melts. 2nd...if there was a warm layer...it was below 1C and very thin...especially given an above freezing level at the sfc. If there was a warm layer...what probably happened is evaporative cooling cooled the column to below freezing or to with a depth that allowed it to stay snow. I wasn't working it and can't say...because my wife had surgery and I was doing other things.

[Johnny]

Ahh, so JB has somewhat backed off on the bitter record breaking cold snap. Now we are making sense. Yep, he's gonna need some swing back alright. The swing back he won't get is with the prolonged cold but the swing back he is hoping for is his wintery precip forecast to take place. It looks like he is still trying to hold onto that and he has a pretty good reason to I guess. That's his only hope.

Thanks for the explanation on the snow flurries last week. I also see that you are paying very close attention to next week. Put some of your wishful thinking into those models will ya? hehe

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for the explanation on the snow flurries last week. I also see that you are paying very close attention to next week. Put some of your wishful thinking into those models will ya? hehe

No problem...as far as wishful thinking...I have learned over the years to seperate my -removed- frommy forecasting. It's hard to do...but has to be done. -removed- is what I do before I come to S2K or get to work...forecasting is what I do AFTER I get here or there

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

[southerngale]

Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings sub-freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

[Brent]

Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings sub-freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

I swear... these models will make you want to drink.

[aggiecutter]

All the weather models have problems with arctic air, including the EURO. When in doubt, go with the pattern and the weather.

[Air Force Met]

Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

It's still not bringing sub-freezing temps at 850 into Texas...although it has cooled. That blue shading is the 0-2 line...not the -2 to 0 line. This is the data from the text output:
ICAO 850 Thick
HOU 1.7C 546
IAH 1.1C 544
CLL 0.5C 543
UTS 0.1C 543
LFK -.9C 541

It is colder...but still above freezing at 850 over houston...so there is still a nice warm layer aloft.

[freeport_texas22]

i bought me a bottel of boons farm...im fixing to chug it all these models and flip flops r making me go crazy i need to stop looking and reading this bored looking for changes and hopes that a snow line or sumthing frozen will make it to brazoria county lol...cheers!

[Tyler]

Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.

[southerngale]

Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings sub-freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

I swear... these models will make you want to drink.

Want to?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.

How warm? That will suck to have Thanksgiving and Christmas warm. Usually when one is warm, the other is cold.