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jkt21787
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#221 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:54 pm

Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm. :(

Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...
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#222 Postby cajungal » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:56 pm

:froze: Why can't it always be like this for Christmas? Because we live in the deep south sha!
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#223 Postby southerngale » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:57 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm. :(

Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...


Ugh. I never expect snow on Christmas, but I do expect to have a fire in the fireplace. That's shouldn't be asking for too much.
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#224 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:58 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif


It's still not bringing sub-freezing temps at 850 into Texas...although it has cooled. That blue shading is the 0-2 line...not the -2 to 0 line. This is the data from the text output:
ICAO 850 Thick
HOU 1.7C 546
IAH 1.1C 544
CLL 0.5C 543
UTS 0.1C 543
LFK -.9C 541

It is colder...but still above freezing at 850 over houston...so there is still a nice warm layer aloft.


Even if not freezing...temps near 1C in North Houston is A LOT colder than earlier...and with temps. that close to 0C...things need to be watched more closely. If this is a trend, then my prospects of snow, sleet or frz. rain may come back into the picture! :D
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#225 Postby southerngale » Thu Dec 15, 2005 8:58 pm

cajungal wrote::froze: Why can't it always be like this for Christmas? Because we live in the deep south sha!


You know what? I don't get snow. I do get hurricanes. Why am I here? Image
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#226 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:00 pm

southerngale wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm. :(

Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...


Ugh. I never expect snow on Christmas, but I do expect to have a fire in the fireplace. That's shouldn't be asking for too much.


Well.....might I suggest turning the thermostat way down...and standing someone outside the window with a box of potato flakes?



:P
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#227 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:03 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Even if not freezing...temps near 1C in North Houston is A LOT colder than earlier...and with temps. that close to 0C...things need to be watched more closely. If this is a trend, then my prospects of snow, sleet or frz. rain may come back into the picture! :D


Don't even know where to start. :D

Bear's watching. Anytime you're still over 60 hours out...heck 24 hours out and trying to forecast freezing precip down here it's a crap shoot. Who knows. 120 hours out is still a big guess. A little drier air...and a little stronger low with some more precip...=more evap cooling and you're in business.
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#228 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:03 pm

yep, the zonal flow returns on thursday, which is quite typical after a 3-5 day cold spell.
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#229 Postby cajungal » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:05 pm

southerngale wrote:
cajungal wrote::froze: Why can't it always be like this for Christmas? Because we live in the deep south sha!


You know what? I don't get snow. I do get hurricanes. Why am I here? Image


I guess we all got a little spoiled after seeing the white stuff for the first time in 15 years. I know I did. It does not really matter to me if I see snow on Christmas even though it would be nice. But, just hope to see some before the winter ends.
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#230 Postby southerngale » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:07 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
southerngale wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm. :(

Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...


Ugh. I never expect snow on Christmas, but I do expect to have a fire in the fireplace. That's shouldn't be asking for too much.


Well.....might I suggest turning the thermostat way down...and standing someone outside the window with a box of potato flakes?


:P

Oh, warm enough that I have to do the A/C thing again? Somehow it loses something when you can go outside comfortably in shorts and a tank top to grab more firewood.

I like the potato flakes idea, but one isn't enough. I think I'll take a road trip and hit all the grocery stores in the tri-state area. Add a little water and voila - snowmen! 8-)
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#231 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:09 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Even if not freezing...temps near 1C in North Houston is A LOT colder than earlier...and with temps. that close to 0C...things need to be watched more closely. If this is a trend, then my prospects of snow, sleet or frz. rain may come back into the picture! :D


Don't even know where to start. :D

Bear's watching. Anytime you're still over 60 hours out...heck 24 hours out and trying to forecast freezing precip down here it's a crap shoot. Who knows. 120 hours out is still a big guess. A little drier air...and a little stronger low with some more precip...=more evap cooling and you're in business.


sounds good to me. Lets hope for that scenario to play out! :wink:
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#232 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:12 pm

For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.

12z Ensembles...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html
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#233 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:34 pm

southerngale wrote:
Brent wrote:
southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings sub-freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif


:double:


I swear... these models will make you want to drink. :roll:


Want to?Image


I'm still underage... :roll:
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#234 Postby Tyler » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:46 pm

aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.

12z Ensembles...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html


It seems like this winter, we have gone from a period of very warm conditions, to very cold conditions, then warm for a while, then cold. We've had extended periods of either cold or warm, instead of one day cold, then the next warm, then its cold again the next day. The first half of November was very warm. Then the warm pattern collapsed, and in came a much colder second half of November. December has started much below normal, but it looks like December may finish alot warmer, as well as the first few days of January. Of course, then the pattern could reload itself, and sometime in January, we could be in for yet another cold shot of arctic air. But what do I know, this is just my opinion.
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#235 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:50 pm

Tyler wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.

12z Ensembles...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html


It seems like this winter, we have gone from a period of very warm conditions, to very cold conditions, then warm for a while, then cold. We've had extended periods of either cold or warm, instead of one day cold, then the next warm, then its cold again the next day. The first half of November was very warm. Then the warm pattern collapsed, and in came a much colder second half of November. December has started much below normal, but it looks like December may finish alot warmer, as well as the first few days of January. Of course, then the pattern could reload itself, and sometime in January, we could be in for yet another cold shot of arctic air. But what do I know, this is just my opinion.


Yeah, we will probably be talking about possibilities of arctic air and snow every other week throughout the winter. Lets just hope that at least one of them actually brings snow to Houston!
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#236 Postby Tyler » Thu Dec 15, 2005 9:54 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.

12z Ensembles...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html


It seems like this winter, we have gone from a period of very warm conditions, to very cold conditions, then warm for a while, then cold. We've had extended periods of either cold or warm, instead of one day cold, then the next warm, then its cold again the next day. The first half of November was very warm. Then the warm pattern collapsed, and in came a much colder second half of November. December has started much below normal, but it looks like December may finish alot warmer, as well as the first few days of January. Of course, then the pattern could reload itself, and sometime in January, we could be in for yet another cold shot of arctic air. But what do I know, this is just my opinion.


Yeah, we will probably be talking about possibilities of arctic air and snow every other week throughout the winter. Lets just hope that at least one of them actually brings snow to Houston!


Ya, this winter has been very exciting so far with all of these snow posibilities, lets hope these chances continue throughout the season! :D
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#237 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:32 pm

Watched all 4 major stations in Dallas. Very wide range of forecasts. However all of them said just a cold rain this weekend. Most of them said colder by Tuesday and they were split 2-2 on light snow on Tuesday.
Please explain if they have the temps on Sat in the 40's with rain but also have the temps in the 40's on Tuesday but instead of rain they have snow? I thought you had to have below freezing all the way down for snow? especially if there is to be a light accumulation?
One did mention they expect the Waco area to get more accumulation of snow on Tuesday than Dallas....Wow Im about half way between the two but maybe a little closer to Dallas than Waco. Just wonder if Waco is going to be colder than Dallas to the north?
I say if the local mets say Snow they Jinx it. The most memorable snows were the ones not even predicted. You know the ones where in the middle of the night it seems to be more quieter than normal? Then you look out and see a white landscape of a 3 inch snowfall. Or when they say only a dusting and it is a dusting of 12 inches or more? like Jan "82 where we got almost a foot of snow south east of Dallas. Now those events were never jinxed by forecasting a week away from the event.
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#238 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:45 pm

ETXHAMXYL wrote:Watched all 4 major stations in Dallas. Very wide range of forecasts. However all of them said just a cold rain this weekend. Most of them said colder by Tuesday and they were split 2-2 on light snow on Tuesday.
Please explain if they have the temps on Sat in the 40's with rain but also have the temps in the 40's on Tuesday but instead of rain they have snow? I thought you had to have below freezing all the way down for snow? especially if there is to be a light accumulation?
One did mention they expect the Waco area to get more accumulation of snow on Tuesday than Dallas....Wow Im about half way between the two but maybe a little closer to Dallas than Waco. Just wonder if Waco is going to be colder than Dallas to the north?
I say if the local mets say Snow they Jinx it. The most memorable snows were the ones not even predicted. You know the ones where in the middle of the night it seems to be more quieter than normal? Then you look out and see a white landscape of a 3 inch snowfall. Or when they say only a dusting and it is a dusting of 12 inches or more? like Jan "82 where we got almost a foot of snow south east of Dallas. Now those events were never jinxed by forecasting a week away from the event.


well the reason Waco could see more is because the upper dynamics may be better for precip. down there and thus a higher chance of snow is possible. In Dallas a lesser chance should be seen, but it will probably be colder in Dallas. By the way snow can sometimes fall at temps. above 32, but it happens more rarely down this way in Texas. It has to do with the air above the surface being below freezing, but at the surface it is not, and the evaporative cooling leads to snow falling at temps. above 32. The warmest it has ever snowed in the US was 51 degrees (somewhere in the mountains)!!! Of course at such high temps. the snow would not accumulate...unless the surface air is below 35. I have been in North Carolina before when it has been 34 and there has been 3" of snow on the ground and the snow was still falling! If it is falling heavy enough at temps. just above freezing it can accumulate, and if it is below 40, then it may accumulate on metallic surfaces as they can cool quicker than the air.
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#239 Postby ETXHAMXYL » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:54 pm

Thanks for your explaination extremewx. I do remember that Valentine snow we had we had it on the ground and falling but I didn't need a jacket it felt like it was in the upper 30's then.

I guess the only time anyone can predict the Texas weather is in the summer when it is just hot and humid day after day. Winter must be murder on Yankee forecasters who move down here their first winter in Texas. I am still trying to convince my husband who is from PHilly that we can and do have bad ice storms and heavy snows once in a great moon and that is why we panic and buy milk and bread at 40 degree days. LOL I do remember Jan of 82 when we got 12 inches of snow after having an inch of ice fall and freeze. With being in a rural area no one got out for almost a week since each day it would melt and refreeze as sheets of ice. So we do get some bad winter weather that we are not used to dealing with here.
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#240 Postby Burn1 » Thu Dec 15, 2005 11:58 pm

The Jan - Mar...outlook is for a better than even chance for warmer than usual temps for everything west of the Mississippi, including Central FL and here in Southern Florida....

Looks like the colder than normal stuff will be for the folks in the east/northeastern part of the country.....

Actually looking at possibly well above normal temps for mountain west....I hope this does not dampen ski conditions for the coming months as I will be heading out Jan/Feb
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