Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.
Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...
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jkt21787 wrote:Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.
Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...
Air Force Met wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif
It's still not bringing sub-freezing temps at 850 into Texas...although it has cooled. That blue shading is the 0-2 line...not the -2 to 0 line. This is the data from the text output:
ICAO 850 Thick
HOU 1.7C 546
IAH 1.1C 544
CLL 0.5C 543
UTS 0.1C 543
LFK -.9C 541
It is colder...but still above freezing at 850 over houston...so there is still a nice warm layer aloft.
southerngale wrote:jkt21787 wrote:Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.
Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...
Ugh. I never expect snow on Christmas, but I do expect to have a fire in the fireplace. That's shouldn't be asking for too much.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Even if not freezing...temps near 1C in North Houston is A LOT colder than earlier...and with temps. that close to 0C...things need to be watched more closely. If this is a trend, then my prospects of snow, sleet or frz. rain may come back into the picture!
southerngale wrote:cajungal wrote::froze: Why can't it always be like this for Christmas? Because we live in the deep south sha!
You know what? I don't get snow. I do get hurricanes. Why am I here?
Air Force Met wrote:southerngale wrote:jkt21787 wrote:Tyler wrote:Whether it snows or not, Christmas is not looking too good. I just checked long range on the Euro and GFS, and it looks kinda warm.
Yeah, big moderating trend after next week very likely. Sorry...
Ugh. I never expect snow on Christmas, but I do expect to have a fire in the fireplace. That's shouldn't be asking for too much.
Well.....might I suggest turning the thermostat way down...and standing someone outside the window with a box of potato flakes?
Air Force Met wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Even if not freezing...temps near 1C in North Houston is A LOT colder than earlier...and with temps. that close to 0C...things need to be watched more closely. If this is a trend, then my prospects of snow, sleet or frz. rain may come back into the picture!
Don't even know where to start.![]()
Bear's watching. Anytime you're still over 60 hours out...heck 24 hours out and trying to forecast freezing precip down here it's a crap shoot. Who knows. 120 hours out is still a big guess. A little drier air...and a little stronger low with some more precip...=more evap cooling and you're in business.
southerngale wrote:Brent wrote:southerngale wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest run of the European model looks MUCH colder and brings sub-freezing 850mb temps. into Houston on Tuesday (especially north Houston and the northern Suburbs). Could it be trending back towards a colder look?
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif
I swear... these models will make you want to drink.
Want to?
aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.
12z Ensembles...
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html
Tyler wrote:aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.
12z Ensembles...
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html
It seems like this winter, we have gone from a period of very warm conditions, to very cold conditions, then warm for a while, then cold. We've had extended periods of either cold or warm, instead of one day cold, then the next warm, then its cold again the next day. The first half of November was very warm. Then the warm pattern collapsed, and in came a much colder second half of November. December has started much below normal, but it looks like December may finish alot warmer, as well as the first few days of January. Of course, then the pattern could reload itself, and sometime in January, we could be in for yet another cold shot of arctic air. But what do I know, this is just my opinion.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Tyler wrote:aggiecutter wrote:For those concerned with the long range, it looks the pattern might reload around the end of december or the first of the New Year.
12z Ensembles...
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21512.html
It seems like this winter, we have gone from a period of very warm conditions, to very cold conditions, then warm for a while, then cold. We've had extended periods of either cold or warm, instead of one day cold, then the next warm, then its cold again the next day. The first half of November was very warm. Then the warm pattern collapsed, and in came a much colder second half of November. December has started much below normal, but it looks like December may finish alot warmer, as well as the first few days of January. Of course, then the pattern could reload itself, and sometime in January, we could be in for yet another cold shot of arctic air. But what do I know, this is just my opinion.
Yeah, we will probably be talking about possibilities of arctic air and snow every other week throughout the winter. Lets just hope that at least one of them actually brings snow to Houston!
ETXHAMXYL wrote:Watched all 4 major stations in Dallas. Very wide range of forecasts. However all of them said just a cold rain this weekend. Most of them said colder by Tuesday and they were split 2-2 on light snow on Tuesday.
Please explain if they have the temps on Sat in the 40's with rain but also have the temps in the 40's on Tuesday but instead of rain they have snow? I thought you had to have below freezing all the way down for snow? especially if there is to be a light accumulation?
One did mention they expect the Waco area to get more accumulation of snow on Tuesday than Dallas....Wow Im about half way between the two but maybe a little closer to Dallas than Waco. Just wonder if Waco is going to be colder than Dallas to the north?
I say if the local mets say Snow they Jinx it. The most memorable snows were the ones not even predicted. You know the ones where in the middle of the night it seems to be more quieter than normal? Then you look out and see a white landscape of a 3 inch snowfall. Or when they say only a dusting and it is a dusting of 12 inches or more? like Jan "82 where we got almost a foot of snow south east of Dallas. Now those events were never jinxed by forecasting a week away from the event.
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