National Climate Data Center Katrina Report

[Pearl River]

Camille's central pressure was measured by the recon at 26.61. The advisory by the NHC said the recon estimated winds at 190. Was the report worded wrong or what? I don't know. The NHC will have to answer that question. It's been 36 years since Camille and they haven't downgraded it.

[Derek Ortt]

time to set the record straight

a cat 4 surge for Mississippi is 30 feet. DO NOT USE THE SS SCALE ESTIMATES!!! They are intended for Biscayne Bay, and Biscayne Bay ONLY. That is why the SS Scale categories are only wind determined

The official NHC report states max wind gusts to 190. We went through this with Ivan last year. The NHC advisories are NOT BEST TRACK info and carry<b>ZERO</b> scientific weight. How this value was changed to 190 sustained is quite bizarre, much like how Gloria is listed as a cat 3 landfall on Long Island, with 75KT winds (we also had 95KT cat 4's).

The entire HURDAT sample is worthless from where the reanalysis is to about 1998 (except for Andrew and Donna, two storms already completed)

[f5]

what would be a category 5 storm surge in Katrina's landfall location?

[Normandy]

Normandy. I don't know where you are getting the wind gust of 190 mph. The recon estimated sustained winds of 190 mph. Special Advisory 16 on Camille in the NHC archives. Besides were you living in MS in 1969. Everyone wants to put emphasis on pictures. Try actually seeing the damage first hand.

I dont need to see the damage first hand, I have seen Katrina's and its NO DIFFERENT than Camilles!

[Derek Ortt]

the surge for Mississippi is about twice as high as a surge event in Pensacola. Pensacola receives higher waves.

A cat 5 likely would cause 35-40 feet in Mississippi (or a hurricane that is a cat 5 wehn moving onto the shelf)

[Air Force Met]

There is no evidence of a Cat 5 surge. There was a Cat 4 surge on both sides of St Louis Bay as well as the shoreline on the north of the bay...Diamondhead south of I-10.

This is a joke...right? You're kidding...right? Either that or you have no idea what you are talking about.

First...from the NHC. Category Five Hurricane: Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.

OK. Second. From the NOAA Tech Report. Rises in rivers were 22 and 24'.

From Fema: "Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 30 feet above normal tide levels..."

Anyway you slice it...it comes out peanuts...or a cat 5 surge. No doubt and no debate. There is no debate. NHC has said it...no question. It's not a Cat 4 surge. The evidence is crystal clear.

[Margie]

There was no surge height greater than approx 30 ft...no 35 ft surge. Also Cat 4 surge level is not a simple number or range. No, you cannot go by those surge numbers in wiki.

Please...do not quote the entire post for a comment. Please go to the links I have provided before you make a comment. The evac tool shows the areas that receive surge from the different category levels. This is determined by many SLOSH model runs. You can compare the areas on the map that show Cat 5 level of flooding to the FEMA flood maps and you won't find any Cat 5 areas that were flooded. It is very straightforward.

Not only was there not a Cat 5 level surge, the Cat 4 was limited to a specific area just to the N and NE of where the eyewall made landfall.

What is interesting about the surge is not that there was some Cat 4 surge, in the area where you'd expect it, because that is explainable, but what is interesting is the reach of the Cat 3 surge. Cat 3 surge extended just into AL at Bayou La Batre. Kat was a big storm.

[Air Force Met]

There was no surge height greater than approx 30 ft...no 35 ft surge. Also Cat 4 surge level is not a simple number or range. No, you cannot go by those surge numbers in wiki.

That's not the number form Wiki...that's the number from the NHC.

That's THEIR number.

Might I suggest you visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

OH...and BTW...30' is 60% greater than 18'. So...it's not even a close call.

[f5]

FEMA already came out with there flood maps they said the surge was 35 ft in west pass christian which would be a category 5 storm surge

[Normandy]

There was no surge height greater than approx 30 ft...no 35 ft surge. Also Cat 4 surge level is not a simple number or range. No, you cannot go by those surge numbers in wiki.

Please...do not quote the entire post for a comment. Please go to the links I have provided before you make a comment. The evac tool shows the areas that receive surge from the different categorie levels. This is determined by many SLOSH model runs. You can compare the areas on the map that show Cat 5 level of flooding to the FEMA flood maps and you won't find any Cat 5 areas that were flooded. It is very straightforward.

I dont need to read ur whole post to know its incorrect. Yes, there were water markers as high as 35 feet, read up on it. It was a Cat 5 surge, no question, ur wrong.

[Brent]

There is no evidence of a Cat 5 surge. There was a Cat 4 surge on both sides of St Louis Bay as well as the shoreline on the north of the bay...Diamondhead south of I-10.

You cannot possibly be serious...

18 feet would be a Cat 5 surge under the Saffir-Simpson Scale... and Katrina was far higher than that.

[Normandy]

time to set the record straight

a cat 4 surge for Mississippi is 30 feet. DO NOT USE THE SS SCALE ESTIMATES!!! They are intended for Biscayne Bay, and Biscayne Bay ONLY. That is why the SS Scale categories are only wind determined

The official NHC report states max wind gusts to 190. We went through this with Ivan last year. The NHC advisories are NOT BEST TRACK info and carry<b>ZERO</b> scientific weight. How this value was changed to 190 sustained is quite bizarre, much like how Gloria is listed as a cat 3 landfall on Long Island, with 75KT winds (we also had 95KT cat 4's).

The entire HURDAT sample is worthless from where the reanalysis is to about 1998 (except for Andrew and Donna, two storms already completed)

Well if thats the case, then that further proves Camille was far weaker than shown. 22.4 feet is what, Cat 3 levels for MS then I assume if 30 feet is Cat 4.

[Margie]

FEMA already came out with there flood maps they said the surge was 35 ft in west pass christian which would be a category 5 storm surge

OK well all the FEMA maps with the high water marks are online. Please post the URL for the one with the 35 ft high water mark. I must have missed it.

[Air Force Met]

Well if thats the case, then that further proves Camille was far weaker than shown. 22.4 feet is what, Cat 3 levels for MS then I assume if 30 feet is Cat 4.

Got to remember that what makes the Cat is the wind...not the surge. If a storm is small like Camille....the surge will be small too.

Here's a question: Remember Jerry back in '89? That eyewall that came through GLS? Imagine that as a Cat 5. I doubt a surge from that would be more than 20'.

[Derek Ortt]

but Camielle was not as small as Jerry. I wonder if Jerry would have even produced 15 feet. Charley produced less surge than expected for a strong TS in the area it made landfall

Camielle was said to be small because it was compared to Carla, which took up the entire GOM (or nearly all of it). It wa salso smaller than Katrina, but maybe close to Ivan's size (an average to slightly above average sized storm

[wxmann_91]

time to set the record straight

a cat 4 surge for Mississippi is 30 feet. DO NOT USE THE SS SCALE ESTIMATES!!! They are intended for Biscayne Bay, and Biscayne Bay ONLY. That is why the SS Scale categories are only wind determine

the surge for Mississippi is about twice as high as a surge event in Pensacola. Pensacola receives higher waves.

A cat 5 likely would cause 35-40 feet in Mississippi (or a hurricane that is a cat 5 wehn moving onto the shelf)

Interesting...b/c Katrina was a Cat 5 when it moved into the shelf waters. Although the max surge height could be near 35 ft after all analysis is done.

[Air Force Met]

but Camielle was not as small as Jerry. I wonder if Jerry would have even produced 15 feet. Charley produced less surge than expected for a strong TS in the area it made landfall

Camielle was said to be small because it was compared to Carla, which took up the entire GOM (or nearly all of it). It wa salso smaller than Katrina, but maybe close to Ivan's size (an average to slightly above average sized storm

Well I know that...nobody was as small as Jerry. I was there

It hit Galveston and I was in Webster and got 10 knots with gusts to 20. Now THATS a gradient.

[Derek Ortt]

prelim BT has katrina as a 4 when it moved onto the shelf

yeah, Jerry sure had a tight pressure gradient. Kind of like Iris in 2001 where the winds increased from 5KT to 105KT in about 20 minutes

[wxmann_91]

prelim BT has katrina as a 4 when it moved onto the shelf

yeah, Jerry sure had a tight pressure gradient. Kind of like Iris in 2001 where the winds increased from 5KT to 105KT in about 20 minutes

Where did you get the BT info Derek? Just wondering.

[Derek Ortt]

off of a not exactly very public part of the NHC site. It is subject to change, as what happened with Gaston last year