Great Thread: Truly Learning About Storms (EDITED)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
NetZero06
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:35 am

#101 Postby NetZero06 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 12:48 pm

Size played a very large matter which you overlook Floyd, Katrina was more than twice as large as Camille when you talk about hurricane forice wind radii..and all that water that was being pushed onto land was concerntrated in a small area, that is what gave Katrina it's devastating surge...
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#102 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Dec 16, 2005 7:18 pm

omg I cant believe I forgot that considering I preach that to people I know that ask me :eek:
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#103 Postby rtd2 » Sat Dec 17, 2005 1:18 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:dispite the 224mph gust in Biloxi I do question this

when Katrina came into Mississippi it was at 125mph a good moderate to high end 3. (I do believe her winds were higher then 125 at the time considering gusts near 140 in gulfport and the gulfport water tower being toppled)

At one point Katrina was at 175mph about 20-24 hours before that hit.

Camille was 190mph at landfall

Katrinas Surge 31-35 feet
Camilles 21-24 feet

That doesnt add up

Camille at its peak in the final 24 hours before landfall doesnt add up to be being over 165 in my mind

did she hit as a 5? Possibly (more likely when she hit the southeast tip of Lousiana) Would a cat 5 landfall make sense at the time she hit MIssissippi? Thats questionable. Should they re look over the data? You bet.

But I've never heard of a category 4 hurricane slamming a 224mph gust on land.



Me Either? Only thing that comes to mind on that would be an Tornado Spun out.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#104 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Dec 17, 2005 11:48 pm

rtd2 wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:dispite the 224mph gust in Biloxi I do question this

when Katrina came into Mississippi it was at 125mph a good moderate to high end 3. (I do believe her winds were higher then 125 at the time considering gusts near 140 in gulfport and the gulfport water tower being toppled)

At one point Katrina was at 175mph about 20-24 hours before that hit.

Camille was 190mph at landfall

Katrinas Surge 31-35 feet
Camilles 21-24 feet

That doesnt add up

Camille at its peak in the final 24 hours before landfall doesnt add up to be being over 165 in my mind

did she hit as a 5? Possibly (more likely when she hit the southeast tip of Lousiana) Would a cat 5 landfall make sense at the time she hit MIssissippi? Thats questionable. Should they re look over the data? You bet.

But I've never heard of a category 4 hurricane slamming a 224mph gust on land.



Me Either? Only thing that comes to mind on that would be an Tornado Spun out.


I never heard of a hurricane dropping a tornado that strong

it is possible though
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#105 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:03 am

0 likes   

User avatar
NC George
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 am
Location: Washington, NC, USA

#106 Postby NC George » Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:11 am

One point I'd like to being up here. Surge and windspeed aren't linked as closely as some would like. In other words, two hurricanes, with the same windspeed, can produce dramatically different surges if they strike different location, or the same location at a different time or direction. The two primary factors influencing surge are fetch and duration. In other words, how long the wind is blowing in the same direction, and over how long a stretch of ocean the wind is blowing. Other factors can include:

windspeed (the more, the larger the surge)
size of storm (the larger, the larger the surge.)
straightness of path (storm that curves suddenly will have less surge then one moving straight ahead.)
speed of storm (slow mover will have more surge than fast mover.)
tide
coastal geography

The SS scale is designed to describe damage to buildings from windspeed. You can estimate surge, but that's all it is, an estimate. If the surge doesn't reach that height, it doesn't mean the windspeed was less, and conversely if the surge is higher, it doesn't mean the windspeed was more. This is the failure of the SS scale IMHO, there are 2 other components to hurricane damage that aren't adequately described by the SS scale - surge and rainfall. BTW, it was the rainfall that made Floyd so bad in my area. As far as windspeed in my local area, Bertha and Fran were both worse. Power was out for a day with Bertha, a week with Fran, 8 hours for Floyd. Some of the worst flooding on the Outer Banks of NC comes with Nor'easters. Why - longer duration of winds in the same direction.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#107 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:18 am

NC George wrote:One point I'd like to being up here. Surge and windspeed aren't linked as closely as some would like. In other words, two hurricanes, with the same windspeed, can produce dramatically different surges if they strike different location, or the same location at a different time. The two primary factors influencing surge are fetch and duration. In other words, how long the wind is blowing in the same direction, and over how long a stretch of ocean the wind is blowing. Other factors can include:

windspeed (the more, the larger the surge)
size of storm (the larger, the larger the surge.)
straightness of path (storm that curves suddenly will have less surge then one moving straight ahead.)
speed of storm (slow mover will have more surge than fast mover.)
tide
coastal geography


What about the angle the storm comes in at? One that comes ashore nearly parallel to the coastline won't produce nearly as much surge as one that comes ashore nearly perpendicular to the coastline.

Anyway good points. SS scale is flawed, and in more ways than one. Unfortunately, hurricanes can kill in so many ways that we can't really come up with a scale that can measure all of them.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#108 Postby Ixolib » Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:41 am

NC George wrote:One point I'd like to being up here. Surge and windspeed aren't linked as closely as some would like. In other words, two hurricanes, with the same windspeed, can produce dramatically different surges if they strike different location, or the same location at a different time or direction. The two primary factors influencing surge are fetch and duration. In other words, how long the wind is blowing in the same direction, and over how long a stretch of ocean the wind is blowing. Other factors can include:

windspeed (the more, the larger the surge)
size of storm (the larger, the larger the surge.)
straightness of path (storm that curves suddenly will have less surge then one moving straight ahead.)
speed of storm (slow mover will have more surge than fast mover.)
tide
coastal geography

The SS scale is designed to describe damage to buildings from windspeed. You can estimate surge, but that's all it is, an estimate. If the surge doesn't reach that height, it doesn't mean the windspeed was less, and conversely if the surge is higher, it doesn't mean the windspeed was more. This is the failure of the SS scale IMHO, there are 2 other components to hurricane damage that aren't adequately described by the SS scale - surge and rainfall. BTW, it was the rainfall that made Floyd so bad in my area. As far as windspeed in my local area, Bertha and Fran were both worse. Power was out for a day with Bertha, a week with Fran, 8 hours for Floyd. Some of the worst flooding on the Outer Banks of NC comes with Nor'easters. Why - longer duration of winds in the same direction.


And let's not forget astronomical tide. Had Katrina come ashore at low tide, I believe my losses would have been significantly lesser. As it was, the tide was at its height on the morning of August 29. Consequently, my particular situation ended up much different than it otherwise would have...
0 likes   

User avatar
NC George
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 am
Location: Washington, NC, USA

#109 Postby NC George » Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:15 pm

Ixolib wrote:windspeed (the more, the larger the surge)
size of storm (the larger, the larger the surge.)
straightness of path (storm that curves suddenly will have less surge then one moving straight ahead.)
speed of storm (slow mover will have more surge than fast mover.)
tide
coastal geography

And let's not forget astronomical tide. Had Katrina come ashore at low tide, I believe my losses would have been significantly lesser. As it was, the tide was at its height on the morning of August 29. Consequently, my particular situation ended up much different than it otherwise would have...


I wasn't talking about how much detergent was in the ocean in my list. Just a little humor there :lol: I was actually trying to think of the word that describes the daily tide, thanks for reminding me! Astronomical. I should have included direction in the list, too. I mentioned it in the introductory paragraph, forgot to include it in the list of surge influencing factors.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#110 Postby Ixolib » Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:21 pm

NC George wrote:
Ixolib wrote:windspeed (the more, the larger the surge)
size of storm (the larger, the larger the surge.)
straightness of path (storm that curves suddenly will have less surge then one moving straight ahead.)
speed of storm (slow mover will have more surge than fast mover.)
tide
coastal geography

And let's not forget astronomical tide. Had Katrina come ashore at low tide, I believe my losses would have been significantly lesser. As it was, the tide was at its height on the morning of August 29. Consequently, my particular situation ended up much different than it otherwise would have...


I wasn't talking about how much detergent was in the ocean in my list. Just a little humor there :lol: I was actually trying to think of the word that describes the daily tide, thanks for reminding me! Astronomical. I should have included direction in the list, too. I mentioned it in the introductory paragraph, forgot to include it in the list of surge influencing factors.


Oops - my bad... :oops: Didn't see the word "tide" in your list. But I do now!! Seems we were on the same page afterall...
0 likes   

User avatar
Pearl River
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 825
Age: 66
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:07 pm
Location: SELa

#111 Postby Pearl River » Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:32 pm

There are a some of differences between Camille and Katrina. The first is Camille came in from the southeast and Katrina came in from due south into the coast. Different angles. Katrina Stayed over the Gulf longer moving slower than Camille, allowing the water level to rise even more. Camille's winds were announced estimated by recon at 190 mph in a special advisory at 3:00pm central time, 8 hours before landfall.

Another thing, if you are going to look for wind damage along the coast, the tidal surge would have taken care of removing that. Take a look at the forestry devestation. When a pine tree 30 ft tall and 3 to 4 ft in diameter is snapped in half and not necessarily done by a tornado, then there were some pretty strong winds. If anyone knows how tough pine trees are, they could understand what I'm saying.

I'm not a scientist or pro met or an expert by no means, just someone who has over 40 yrs experience of living thru hurricanes.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#112 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:07 pm

Pearl River wrote:There are a some of differences between Camille and Katrina. The first is Camille came in from the southeast and Katrina came in from due south into the coast. Different angles. Katrina Stayed over the Gulf longer moving slower than Camille, allowing the water level to rise even more. Camille's winds were announced estimated by recon at 190 mph in a special advisory at 3:00pm central time, 8 hours before landfall.

Another thing, if you are going to look for wind damage along the coast, the tidal surge would have taken care of removing that. Take a look at the forestry devestation. When a pine tree 30 ft tall and 3 to 4 ft in diameter is snapped in half and not necessarily done by a tornado, then there were some pretty strong winds. If anyone knows how tough pine trees are, they could understand what I'm saying.

I'm not a scientist or pro met or an expert by no means, just someone who has over 40 yrs experience of living thru hurricanes.


Katrina was also like double Camilles size
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib and 67 guests