The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[PTrackerLA]

According to accuweather, our overnight lows will be upper 30's -40 and highs upper 50's-60 for Christmas weekend. It's a warmup from early next week but we could EASILY be into the mid 70's anytime of year around here so I'll take it!

[freeport_texas22]

There has been an interesting shift in the 0z models showing a possible upper low swinging by North Texas Tuesday. If that forecast holds and/or the upper low digs a little more, it *could* bring enough cold air with it to develop snow in the region. Still a lot of uncertainity.

from a met in houston...

[Extremeweatherguy]

European has trended colder last two runs. Unlike last night when it had 850mb temps. near 0C...it now has them below in Houston!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

^^^check out days 4-6 on the ECMWF (day 5; which is Wednesday; looks the coldest).^^^

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

^^^If you just want to see day 5; here is the link for it.^^^

[Portastorm]

Forget it gang ... the trend is for warmer not colder. We're all going to be disappointed. Time to get off the Texas Snow Train at the next stop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Forget it gang ... the trend is for warmer not colder. We're all going to be disappointed. Time to get off the Texas Snow Train at the next stop.

I don't know... The GFS has trended warmer, but the Euro is now trending cooler. The GFS sometimes tends to follow the Euro, but about 12-24 hrs. later than the Euro. I think we still have a chance to see some interesting weather next week. The NWS numbers are warm, because it looks like they are generally following the GFS output, which is usually not so good with arctic air. With the arctic air last week, the GFS busted by quite a few degrees. The news this morning is STILL mentioning the word snow, so obviously there is still a chance. Im going to hold out hope until at least Sunday when I can get a better idea of the situation.

[Air Force Met]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif

European has trended colder last two runs. Unlike last night when it had 850mb temps. near 0C...it now has them below in Houston!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

^^^check out days 4-6 on the ECMWF (day 5; which is Wednesday; looks the coldest).^^^

You're almost there.
HOU WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.6C 542
IAH WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.1C
CXO WED 00Z 21-DEC -0.3C 540
DWH WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.0C 540
CLL WED 00Z 21-DEC -0.3

So...below in Conroe.

What I find interesting is the 00Z loses the whole idea of a deep low forming and sitting. It's back to a more progressive, but stronger, shortwave. Also the 00Z cross-sections make a LOT more sense than the 12Z runs and the previos 00Z runs.

Better than the 12Z runs because the RH's are back to normal...so it must have been an error in the model output. Better than the previous 00Z run because the temps from GLS to ACT aren't the same all the way along the slice...there is a gradient. They are also warmer than the previous 00Z run...which makes sense. Snow and freezing precip is no longer supported except at the very end of the period around 15Z for a brief period when the freezing level dips to about 1000' from about Conroe to Huntsville. 1000' is marginal at best and the precip is ending at about that time.

Again...we're still 120 hours out. At least we have something to post about.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi in his brief morning update sounds like he's about the throw in the towel on the cold pattern for the rest of the month or at least the December to remember type cold.

On a brighter note, I heard on the radio that oil prices are dropping today because the NWS said the winter will be warmer than they orgianally called it. Translation: Get ready for one of the coldest winters in decades!

[Brent]

On a brighter note, I heard on the radio that oil prices are dropping today because the NWS said the winter will be warmer than they orgianally called it. Translation: Get ready for one of the coldest winters in decades!

[gboudx]

Seems DFW NWS based their AFD forecast this morning on the GFS, and San Angelo based their's on the NAM. The 2 forecasts are quite different and I don't see how both could be right. Considering that San Angelo's eastern and northern CWA butts right up against DFW's western CWA. But I concede "what do I know, I'm just a amateur."

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif

European has trended colder last two runs. Unlike last night when it had 850mb temps. near 0C...it now has them below in Houston!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

^^^check out days 4-6 on the ECMWF (day 5; which is Wednesday; looks the coldest).^^^

You're almost there.
HOU WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.6C 542
IAH WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.1C
CXO WED 00Z 21-DEC -0.3C 540
DWH WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.0C 540
CLL WED 00Z 21-DEC -0.3

So...below in Conroe.

What I find interesting is the 00Z loses the whole idea of a deep low forming and sitting. It's back to a more progressive, but stronger, shortwave. Also the 00Z cross-sections make a LOT more sense than the 12Z runs and the previos 00Z runs.

Better than the 12Z runs because the RH's are back to normal...so it must have been an error in the model output. Better than the previous 00Z run because the temps from GLS to ACT aren't the same all the way along the slice...there is a gradient. They are also warmer than the previous 00Z run...which makes sense. Snow and freezing precip is no longer supported except at the very end of the period around 15Z for a brief period when the freezing level dips to about 1000' from about Conroe to Huntsville. 1000' is marginal at best and the precip is ending at about that time.

Again...we're still 120 hours out. At least we have something to post about.

Well 0.1C is pretty close to 0C up here in N. Houston. Im starting to get my hopes up again. Can't wait to see what the models decide to do today. If the GFS decides to trend back towards a colder look, then we may have to watch the situation more closely.

[CaptinCrunch]

Expecting models to trend to colder outlook, should see chance of snow back in the forecast for early next week for the NTX area by Saturday morning. just a gut feeling I have thats all, but I have been very close so far to my December outlook I posted just before Halloween.

[Extremeweatherguy]

just took a look at the incoming run of the 12Z GFS on NCEP and it has a much cooler look than the 6Z run. It is not as cold as the Euro currently is...but this may be the start of a trend with the GFS as well. Like I said in an earlier post; the GFS sometimes follows the trends of the Euro but usually lags by about 12-24 hrs. Things are beginning to look more and more promising for wintry precip. and by this weekend, the NWS will probably have to include the threat in thier forecast (if trends continue) all the way south to Conroe...but may be even Houston. (lets hope)

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from Joe Bastardi says that he no longer expects the blizzard from Texas up the east coast like he originally said. He does not even talk about Texas early next week any more; which is weird. He does say it will be cold down the plains though, so I am guessing any snow/ice event here would not be to epic proportions, but still possible. Lots to watch...may be he will mention us again as we get closer to next week.

***He does say a piece of energy heads for the Gulf next week, but that is all he says***

[Johnny]

Lots to watch...may be he will mention us again as we get closer to next week.

I wouldn't think so. Way too many variables need to come together for us to get accumulating snow here in Southeast, Texas. Very bad choice of words on JB's end earliar this week. I won't blast him like alot of other people do but the dude should of waited a bit to honk the blizzard horn. The reason being is because, well quite frankly Texas just doesn't see blizzard type conditions exept once in a blue moon. Snow is still in the picture but the extreme cold and blizzard type conditions that JB was hyping will never happen. What a weenie!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots to watch...may be he will mention us again as we get closer to next week.

I wouldn't think so. Way too many variables need to come together for us to get accumulating snow here in Southeast, Texas. Very bad choice of words on JB's end earliar this week. I won't blast him like alot of other people do but the dude should of waited a bit to honk the blizzard horn. The reason being is because, well quite frankly Texas just doesn't see blizzard type conditions exept once in a blue moon. Snow is still in the picture but the extreme cold and blizzard type conditions that JB was hyping will never happen. What a weenie!

I agree. It definatley now looks like any significant snows are out of the question, but I still think some snow mixing with rain or sleet is still possible even in Houston (considering the latest model trends). Worst case scenario would probably be an inch of snow for the area, but that seems more like a hopeful wish at this point...but could occur if things play out right. I still think the rain/snow line reaches at least north Houston as things are ending. At this point, even a few flakes of snow would be nice!

[southerngale]

[Brent]

[Brent]

latest from Joe Bastardi says that he no longer expects the blizzard from Texas up the east coast like he originally said.

I'll pretend to be shocked...

[gboudx]

Is the title of that command prompt a Freudian slip?

[Brent]

Is the title of that command prompt a Freudian slip?