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jazzfan1247
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#141 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:41 pm

Pearl River wrote:It's mighty funny that several people who have engineering degrees and went through all 4 major hurricanes in Florida last year can say that the damage caused by those storms isn't even close to what has happened in this area with this one storm.


Well obviously, because none of those 4 had anywhere near the storm surge that Katrina did. Does that automatically mean the winds in Katrina were higher at landfall? Nope
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#142 Postby Normandy » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:46 pm

This is why Camille needs to be seriously looked at, because people know assume than since Katrina humbled Camille survivors, katrina must be a Cat 5, which is clearly not the case.
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#143 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:47 pm

Lindaloo wrote:No jazz, you are wrong. The statement of having to see it for yourself is more than truth. Too bad you can't afford to come see it, stand among the rubble. What an insensitive thing to say.


I apologize...

But see, this is exactly what I'm talking about, people unable to separate emotions from the scientific debate. Seeing it for myself...would be more than truth in a emotional, spiritual, whatever sense...but certainly not scientific (not to the extent that you and others are advertising). I want to visit there someday, I've kinda decided to make it one of those "special places to visit before I die" sorta thing, just to pay my respects...

And how was my post insensitive? I admitted I don't know what it feels like to be there. And if pictures are so inadequate in conveying the scale of damage, why post pictures at all? Why post a huge picture of a concrete slab on the front of the newspaper? It's not gonna matter anyways, cuz if we're not there, we "have no clue"
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#144 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Jazzfan said

Well obviously, because none of those 4 had anywhere near the storm surge that Katrina did. Does that automatically mean the winds in Katrina were higher at landfall? Nope


Gee. it seems everyone is basing their opinion on an experimental research product. And also, alot of damage I have seen was not caused by storm surge. But hey, your the expert.[/quote][/b]
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#145 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:54 pm

Pearl River wrote:Gee. it seems everyone is basing their opinion on an experimental research product. And also, alot of damage I have seen was not caused by storm surge. But hey, your the expert.


Did you even read the whole topic? There's more than just the SFMR data that indicates this
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#146 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 4:56 pm

Normandy said

This is why Camille needs to be seriously looked at, because people know assume than since Katrina humbled Camille survivors, katrina must be a Cat 5, which is clearly not the case.


Well, all you people are experts here. I'm sure y'all have been through as many storms as I have. Does this make me an expert. NO. But it makes me a damn good judge of the strenght of a storm.
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#147 Postby WindRunner » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:00 pm

Pearl River wrote:Normandy said

This is why Camille needs to be seriously looked at, because people know assume than since Katrina humbled Camille survivors, katrina must be a Cat 5, which is clearly not the case.


Well, all you people are experts here. I'm sure y'all have been through as many storms as I have. Does this make me an expert. NO. But it makes me a damn good judge of the strenght of a storm.


Unfortunately, your judgement is going to produce a qualitative result (and not one that is comparable to something), not a quantitative result that is necessary to put on the books. Saying that one particular storm was stronger than another in one particular location is great, but it means very little as to the true strength of the storm unless they followed the exact same path with similar structures. And I don't think any of us (with the exception of a few of the pro mets) claim to be experts, I sure don't.
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#148 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:05 pm

The fujita scale was based on visual sight damage.

Besides, you can never know the actual strenght of a storm because the aircraft cannot fly thru the entire system and hit every spot for wind speed. There will always be areas of strongest wind the aircraft will not find.

The sfmr uses viscosity. The water near the delta is more viscous than in other areas.
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#149 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:09 pm

Windrunner. Have you ever been thru any hurricanes? If so, which ones? If not, then you cannot criticize me for what I said. You don't just take structures into account when looking at damage.
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#150 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:11 pm

you CANNOT use damage figures to assign a category. Are you suggesting then that Wilma was a 4 in Miami and Lauderdale, because it caused 15-20 billion in damage? if you, that is an error as it is clear that Wilma was a cat 2 in the area, with most locations receiving cat 1 winds.
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#151 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:13 pm

Pearl River wrote:The fujita scale was based on visual sight damage.

Besides, you can never know the actual strenght of a storm because the aircraft cannot fly thru the entire system and hit every spot for wind speed. There will always be areas of strongest wind the aircraft will not find.

The sfmr uses viscosity. The water near the delta is more viscous than in other areas.


And the SS scale does not. It uses sustained wind speeds. Why? Because unlike in tornadoes, we actually CAN measure hurricane wind speeds with good accuracy. And there are so many factors that go into how much damage a hurricane costs, that it does not need to be extremely intense to cause a large amount of damage (ex: Wilma)...so a damage scale would not be useful as far as warning people how potentially deadly the storm can be.

True, we can never know the EXACT strength of storms. Generally speaking though, we can get a good estimate, and it's improving with the latest data and technologies.

As far as SFMR, do you really think the scientists that came up with this never pondered what could make it inaccurate?
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#152 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:19 pm

Pearl River wrote:Windrunner. Have you ever been thru any hurricanes? If so, which ones? If not, then you cannot criticize me for what I said. You don't just take structures into account when looking at damage.


It doesn't matter how many hurricanes he or any of us have been through. If you don't know how to weigh different pieces of evidence in coming to a scientific conclusion, your chances of coming to the wrong conclusion increase greatly.
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#153 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:27 pm

Jazzfan said

As far as SFMR, do you really think the scientists that came up with this never pondered what could make it inaccurate?


Bingo!!!!!! That's what I've been saying. Just remember, science is not perfect. There is no accurate way to measure a storm. SS scale also uses the distance of inland flooding.

Derek. The figure you are using is for the whole area that Wilma affected in FL, not just Miami and Lauderdale. You can use figures to adjust after the fact.
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#154 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:34 pm

Jazz fan. What is your area of expertise? You and everyone else that say viewing damage has no scientific value are so way off base. Living thru a hurricane gives great scientific value. I know what type of house not to build. I know where or where not to build it. If no one ever went thru a storm or if damage assessment was not used, then we would still be building stick houses.
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#155 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:38 pm

Pearl River wrote:
jazzfan1247 wrote:As far as SFMR, do you really think the scientists that came up with this never pondered what could make it inaccurate?


Bingo!!!!!! That's what I've been saying. Just remember, science is not perfect. There is no accurate way to measure a storm. SS scale also uses the distance of inland flooding.

Derek. The figure you are using is for the whole area that Wilma affected in FL, not just Miami and Lauderdale. You can use figures to adjust after the fact.


Ummm, ok. I wasn't exactly serious with my statement. And the whole "science is not perfect"...ok it isn't, but what other method would you rather use?

I have no idea what you mean by the second part. The large majority of the dollar figure is in the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area. And you still haven't explained how this would be of ANY use for an approaching hurricane.
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#156 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:42 pm

Pearl River wrote:Jazz fan. What is your area of expertise? You and everyone else that say viewing damage has no scientific value are so way off base. Living thru a hurricane gives great scientific value. I know what type of house not to build. I know where or where not to build it. If no one ever went thru a storm or if damage assessment was not used, then we would still be building stick houses.


My area of expertise is being a freshman in college lol. Hopefully it'll be meteorology in a few years though.

I never said that viewing damage has NO scientific value, I'm saying that it has LESS scientific value than say, dropsondes, radar wind velocities, FL winds, etc. Damage can be very useful in situations where you are unable to gather wind data (such as tornadoes), but when you DO have that data, you have to go with that data, regardless of what the damage may indicate to you.
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#157 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:46 pm

jazzfan1247 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:No jazz, you are wrong. The statement of having to see it for yourself is more than truth. Too bad you can't afford to come see it, stand among the rubble. What an insensitive thing to say.


I apologize...

But see, this is exactly what I'm talking about, people unable to separate emotions from the scientific debate. Seeing it for myself...would be more than truth in a emotional, spiritual, whatever sense...but certainly not scientific (not to the extent that you and others are advertising). I want to visit there someday, I've kinda decided to make it one of those "special places to visit before I die" sorta thing, just to pay my respects...

And how was my post insensitive? I admitted I don't know what it feels like to be there. And if pictures are so inadequate in conveying the scale of damage, why post pictures at all? Why post a huge picture of a concrete slab on the front of the newspaper? It's not gonna matter anyways, cuz if we're not there, we "have no clue"


It has nothing to do with my emotions. Ask anyone that could afford to come here and even those who couldn't. You are right, you have no clue.
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#158 Postby Pearl River » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:49 pm

We can sit here and argue about this for the rest of our lives. Again, science and technology is not perfect and it never will be. Even the NHC will tell you they cannot come up with a reason why hurricanes rapidly intensify, they can only speculate.

Unfortunately the radar in Slidell failed and we will never get an accurate read when Katrina hit the LA/MS coast. I don't know how helpful Mobile's radar will be because of the attenuation. We will have to wait for the gpssonde readouts to be fully gone over with, with a fine tooth comb.

If Katrina was a cat 2 or cat 3. Then heaven help us if we do get a true cat 5 in this area.
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#159 Postby jazzfan1247 » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:50 pm

Lindaloo wrote:It has nothing to do with my emotions. Ask anyone that could afford to come here and even those who couldn't. You are right, you have no clue.


So basically you're saying that you are more qualified to judge a storm's intensity than mets such as Derek, who has done tons of research on this very topic...but does any of that matter? Nope, cuz he *wasn't there*
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#160 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Dec 16, 2005 5:50 pm

Normandy wrote:This is why Camille needs to be seriously looked at, because people know assume than since Katrina humbled Camille survivors, katrina must be a Cat 5, which is clearly not the case.


Who has said that? All people are saying, at least down here anyway, is that they compared Camille to Katrina which caused them to stay put because their homes survived Camille. By doing that they were on rooftops and clinging to trees. She may not have been a CAT5 but we had CAT5 surge.
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