The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[Air Force Met]

Well 0.1C is pretty close to 0C up here in N. Houston. Im starting to get my hopes up again. Can't wait to see what the models decide to do today. If the GFS decides to trend back towards a colder look, then we may have to watch the situation more closely.

Again...you need to remember that there are more levels than the 850 that need to be below 0C. The 850 could be -5C but if 900-980mb is >0C...you're not geting anything....especially when sfc temps will be above freezing.

I promise you there is a warm layer somewhere.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well 0.1C is pretty close to 0C up here in N. Houston. Im starting to get my hopes up again. Can't wait to see what the models decide to do today. If the GFS decides to trend back towards a colder look, then we may have to watch the situation more closely.

Again...you need to remember that there are more levels than the 850 that need to be below 0C. The 850 could be -5C but if 900-980mb is >0C...you're not geting anything....especially when sfc temps will be above freezing.

I promise you there is a warm layer somewhere.

What is your latest weather prediction for next week? Is there ANY chance (even a VERY small chance) that north Houston could get a little wintry weather, no matter if it is a single sleet pellet mixed with the rain or a full blown snow shower, do you see any chance? The models seem to be trending cooler (at least the Euro is, and the 12Z run of the GFS is cooler than the 6Z). I just want to hear your latest take on the situation, because the media is keeping up their "snow" chances (or at least Channel 9 at noon and channel 13 this morning) and I wonder why they would do this if they didn't have some reason to believe it is possible. I have company coming in from central Florida early next week and i'm hoping they will be able to see something. Will my hopes be shattered or is there still hope left?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I also just looked at the latest run of the JMA and it has the 200mb, 700mb, 850mb, and 900mb temps. all at or below 0C on the 21st. According to the graphics off of accuweather.com professional.

[Air Force Met]

I also just looked at the latest run of the JMA and it has the 200mb, 700mb, 850mb, and 900mb temps. all at or below 0C on the 21st. According to the graphics off of accuweather.com professional.

Right now I don't see any chance south of CLL-UTS-LFK. There will be a warm layer in there. I do think the GFS is too warm...and I think the EURO is close to about right...but it's still warm at the sfc...and unless you are within freezing within 1000' AGL...it's rain....and right now I do not see the freezing level getting to within 1000' AGL. I also see a warm layer that is more than 1200' thick...which is enough to melt anything trying to come down. Can it change? Yep. right now I gotta stick with what I've been saying all along though because I don't see a reason to change it.

[CaptinCrunch]

Expecting models to trend to colder outlook, should see chance of snow back in the forecast for early next week for the NTX area by Saturday morning. just a gut feeling I have thats all, but I have been very close so far to my December outlook I posted just before Halloween.

The chance of snow has been put back in to the 7 day forecast.

The latest D/FW forecast:

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 33. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 45. North northeast wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 42. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high around 40. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low near 29.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 50.

[gboudx]

CC, don't know about your area, but the chance of snow(10%) has been in the Rockwall forecast since yesterday. I haven't seen a change to a higher chance yet.

[CaptinCrunch]

CC, don't know about your area, but the chance of snow(10%) has been in the Rockwall forecast since yesterday. I haven't seen a change to a higher chance yet.

Wednesday the NWS here in FTW had a slight chance of snow for Tuesday but removed it from yesterdays evening outlook. As of 2:30pm the NWS put the chance of snow back in and stated a 20% chance vs a slight chance form Wed.

[gboudx]

San Angelo AFD this afternoon indicates they are expecting a lot of wintry precip out there. Now, if only that precip can move east and little bit north.

[Kelarie]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
158 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

.NOW...
THRU 5 PM...SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE HOWEVER THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATIONS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LEAVE SE TX
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE
GULF COAST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO BEGIN REACHING THE
GROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE TOWARD
THE COAST. FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE TX COAST AND MOVES INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF. THE ETA APPEARED TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB SO FAR
TODAY WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE AREAS IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ETA LOOKS GOOD LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TOOK A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ETA FOR MOST
OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE PRECIP EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HAS WARMED A BIT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAN BEFORE. DID NOT WANT TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION OF SNOW ALTOGETHER IN CASE THE MODEL TREND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS IS COLDER ONCE AGAIN. TO A LARGE PART...THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND UPON THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL
LOW THE MODEL IS FORMING.

I can't believe they want to base their forecast on the GFS...it is the worst model when it comes to arctic air. How can they base an entire forecast on that model? But at least they mention that the location of the low could change things. I guess it is still a wait and see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...accuweather.com highly disagrees with the national weather service. They are calling for a high of 39 on Tuesday with a low of 33. They also mention "rain and sleet" for Tuesday night.

[gboudx]

wow...accuweather.com highly disagrees with the national weather service. They are calling for a high of 39 on Tuesday with a low of 33. They also mention "rain and sleet" for Tuesday night.

Still waiting on DFW AFD for this afternoon, but they have a high of 44, while accuweather has a high of 32 for Tuesday. Big difference there. And San Angelo put out another SPS. They are expecting a fairly significant winter weather event.

[CaptinCrunch]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-171000-


...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY.
THIS COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP FROM
COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.. DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
COLD AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BY MONDAY EVENING...THE CHANCES
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME FORM OF
WINTERY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THIS WINTERY PRECIPITATION
COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN ANGELO IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT. STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS BY MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...OR
YOUR FAVORITE TV OR RADIO STATION.

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS. A STRONG DISTURBANCE ABOUT TO EXIT CWFA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...HAD A FEW REPORTS OF -SN AROUND ABI. NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL ROLE NORTHEAST AND A BRING HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...EAST OF CWFA...ON SATURDAY. ALSO...FAVORABLE RRQ
OF 300 MB JET WILL BE OVER THIS AREA. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE A WINTER WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LIKE THE NAM STRONGER SFC HIGH OF 1040 VS THE GFS 1034 OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 20/00Z. ALSO...THE NAM 850 MB TEMPS ARE 5 TO 6
DEGREES COLDER THEN THE GFS AT 20/00Z...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE MODEL
SOUNDING USING THE TOP-DOWN APPROACH SUPPORT PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY
SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW THE DYNAMICS/LIFT. UPPER
LEVEL RIDE WILL RE-AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CAUSING A UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TO DIVE SOUTH ON FRONT
SIDE OF RIDGE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 21/00Z. THE GFS IS INDICATING STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...FAVORABLE JET PATTERN AND SOME 800-600 MB LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY FROM 20/18Z THROUGH
21/06Z. THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA. THINK THE QPF AMOUNTS MIGHT BE TO HIGH...HOWEVER IF A
CONNECTION CAN BE SET UP FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET THEN THESE
AMOUNTS MAY BE CLOSE. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP AND WX
GRIDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE COLD NEXT TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD TEMPS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMUP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

Waiting for NWS FTW AFD as well but would expect it fall in line with San Angelo as energy and P-Types move to the E-NE with artic air in place over NTX by Sunday night/Monday morning.

[gboudx]

Waiting for NWS FTW AFD as well but would expect it fall in line with San Angelo as energy and P-Types move to the E-NE with artic air in place over NTX by Sunday night/Monday morning.

It just came out. They are sticking with the warming trend. Is it me, or does something have to give between DFW and San Angelo?

[CaptinCrunch]

Waiting for NWS FTW AFD as well but would expect it fall in line with San Angelo as energy and P-Types move to the E-NE with artic air in place over NTX by Sunday night/Monday morning.

It just came out. They are sticking with the warming trend. Is it me, or does something have to give between DFW and San Angelo?

Just read it myself, I really don't know? I want to see what happens over the night and the next 0z run is posted and see what FTW NWS has to say.

San Angelo is going against the GFS at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like the HOU NWS and DFW NWS both rely heavily on the GFS for forecasts. If the GFS trends colder, believe me; they will too...and the sad thing is that the GFS is usually not that good in these kind of situations.

[Extremeweatherguy]

just took a peek at the latest run of the 18Z GFS and it is as cold or slightly cooler than the 12Z run. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning it has 850mb temps between 1-3C across the area, but that is close enough to 0, that this would need watching. The GFS is also usually a little too warm with arctic air, so would not be surprised to see this look even colder over the weekend. I think AFM's rain/ice line looks pretty good for now, but like he says things can change. Latest European run should be in within 2-4 hrs.

Here is a quote from JB's 5pm update:

I was looking at temps in Texas this afternoon. For instance, there is Houston 10-15 below normal in an air mass the models had 5 below for today a few days ago. Its not like there is no cold air. But it will be interesting to see how some things play out this upcoming week.

wow, he's actually mentioning us again. I guess what he trying to say is that the models busted by about 10 degrees on this current cold, so they may bust by 10 degrees on the next round of cold. we'll see...

BTW: The NWS had forecasted a high in the middle 50s for us today...so far we have only hit the upper 40s!

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest run of the Euro still looks cold with a period of 0-1C 850mb temps. over Houston on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. This consistancy with the colder look has held for 3 model runs (since last night). I am starting to feel better about myself saying it will be a close one in regards to wintry precip....but at this time most of it should stay north of College Station and Huntsville (but if other models continue to trend colder, then we may have to bring that rain/snow&ice line further south).

[Portastorm]

Gang, I hate to rub it in ... but it has been sleeting here in north Austin for the last hour. I just drove in it. Definitely sleet. Weird thing is the surface temps are in the mid 40s. I guess the air profile above us is quite cold to make this happen. But yeah, sleet in Austin.

And no I have not been sampling any egg nog!