'05-'06 first snowless winter on record!

[azsnowman]

Here we are, 15 Dec almost and things are horrible here in Northern Az. not a flake of snow and nothing on the horizon. This winter will go down in history as the driest winter in recorded history. As of today, we've had .03" of precip since 13 Oct........we broke that record last week. I really don't care if we get snow or not, these older bones can't take too much cold anymore, I just hate to see us loose the forests this year to drought!

Dennis

[Brent]

Uh... winter doesn't start til next week.

[Miss Mary]

Have patience Dennis....2006 isn't even here yet. Anything could happen!

I read we'd have a warm winter, although as Brent pointed out Winter hasn't technically started yet. So far we've had freezing rain, snow, very cold temps. Today upper 30s and rain but that hasn't been the case for weeks now. We're all bracing ourselves for extremely high heating bills now. Although I love snow, I was hoping for a cold, snowy spell in January, a few weeks but the warmer temps sure would have easy our budget!

So what I'm saying is, again, anything could happen. You could be starting a thread early January saying - Winter's Arrived!

Mary

[azsnowman]

Uh... winter doesn't start til next week.

You see the thing is as of today 15 Dec, we are ALREADY down 48-50" of snowpack already and even "IF" it does snow now, it will be too late to do any good UNLESS it dumps the 400+" like we had last year and THAT my friends is NOT in the cards , and YES I know winter doesn't start until 21 Dec!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 151731 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1025 AM MST THU DEC 15 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER...AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RATHER DRY. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

[Aslkahuna]

From what I can see, the best chance for getting snow in the AZ mountains will be in the late Jaunary through March timeframe as I expect the current pattern to persist into mid winter. I also expect that precipitation though present will still be below normal. Unfortunately, I can't direct anyone to my discussions so you will have to take my word for it that I was calling for a dry winter as early as late Summer. FWIW, CPC is calling to drought conditions to worsen again over AZ. With a negative PDO and ENSO trending towards a weak Niño we are in trouble down here.

Steve

[aerojad]

Looks like the East is taking all the snow this year.

Yeah baby!

[Brent]

Looks like the East is taking all the snow this year.

Yeah baby!

Now just send some down here...

[f5]

the west uses snow for water usage the east just uses snow for play after all if its not snow its mostly rain in the east

[wxmann_91]

I'm dying for rain in California - every time it looks promising and then POOF. Not one drop of rain since October, despite at least a few times where rain was forecasted - and this darn offshore flow hasn't let up almost for a month now.

[Aslkahuna]

Latest Drought Monitor has restored Moderate Drought to SE AZ and is indicating that Drought conditions will resume in the abnormally dry areas of AZ (includes the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim).

Steve

[aerojad]

the west uses snow for water usage the east just uses snow for play after all if its not snow its mostly rain in the east

Well... the west is a large desert, with the exception of the central valley in California, and the Pacific North West.

Heck, when explorers first started naming things in North America, wasn't the area from Minnesota thru Montana labeled the Great American Desert at first?

Just sayin...

[azskyman]

As you know better than I, Dennis, the "averages" in desert regions are usually made up of "extremes" Zero precipitation one year. Feet of snow the next.

This is not an El Nino year, we know, but I still expect some real winter rains and snows once we round the corner into the new year.

Fingers crossed!

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Should start around mid to late January into early March-however, it will still not be a great deal-especially down here.

Steve

[azsnowman]

the west uses snow for water usage the east just uses snow for play after all if its not snow its mostly rain in the east

Well... the west is a large desert, with the exception of the central valley in California, and the Pacific North West.

Heck, when explorers first started naming things in North America, wasn't the area from Minnesota thru Montana labeled the Great American Desert at first?

Just sayin...

So.....your saying that "I" live in the desert? Hmmmm.....haven't seen a Gila Monster, Corral Snake, Scorpion, Sidewinder Rattlesnake, Saguaro Cactus in my back yard lately!

Steve and Steve, I appreciate the "positive attitudes" right now with all the signs of Ma Nature we are in for the 1st ever snowless winter.........as I said, I DO NOT mind the lack of snow here in town in fact I am rather enjoying it I would LOVE to see RAIN to be real honest but I know rain does NOTHING for ground water!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

[azsnowman]

This was taken 13 December of last year........looks like desert to ME





Dennis AKA Snowman

[azsnowman]

More desert pictures JUST Razzing ya.....you REALLY need to study your geography

[azsnowman]

No snow or even COLD temps in the forecast, temps for the 1st day of winter? Upper "60's to POSSIBLE low 70's".......unheard of and NO moisture what so ever in the future! Looks like for once I won't have to eat crow, sadly!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

THE RIDGE REBUILDS QUICKLY OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH WAA ALOFT. LOOKING AT FAIR WX AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER WEAK S/WV TROF BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. RIDGING RETURNS FOR FRIDAY THRU THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

[jasons2k]

Yes, on the calendar winter doesn't start until the solstice.

I personally think that's a bad way to differentiate the seasons.

The 3 coldest months of the year are Dec, Jan, & Feb, with most locations hitting their coldest averages for the year in mid-January.

When winter "officially" begins, meteorologically speaking, winter is actually well on its way.

[azsnowman]

"Merry Christmas" from the "Snowless White Mountains!"

It's a BALMY 63° at the moment, a HOT 74° on my backporch No hot cocoa THIS YEAR....."Ice Cold MGD and Frozen Mango Margaritas" with Fresh HOMEMADE Green Chili/cheese tamales for Christmas Eve Dinner

The latest from NWS FLAG has all but said in a few choice words that this WILL be a "Snowless" winter and like I said, if it weren't for the fact we NEED the snowpack for drinking water I could care LESS if it snowed at ALL! I will post their comments later! ADOT has cancelled their order for Sodium Chloride to spray the roads this winter........this should save us taxpayers HUNDREDS of 1000's of $$ this winter, no overtime, no diesel bills for the snowplows and yet more benefits of not having a winter this year!


Dennis