Upgraded to a deep depression. The IMD track is almost unchanged and is a fair way south of the JTWC one.
No. BOB/12/2005/06 Dated : 17th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and has further intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 17th December, 2005 near lat. 8.00 N and Long. 84.00 E about 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast across northern Srilanka during the next 48 hours.
Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely along Tamilnadu coast during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu coast during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone 07B
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HURAKAN
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WTIO31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 8.4N 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 8.9N 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.5N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.0N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED
POLEWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY
MODESTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 8.4N 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 8.9N 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.5N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.0N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED
POLEWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY
MODESTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
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P.K.
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No. BOB/12/2005/07 Dated : 17th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north-westwards and lay centered at 1430 IST of 17th December, 2005 near Lat. 8.50 N and Long. 83.50 E about 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast across northern Srilanka during the next 48 hours.
Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along Tamilnadu coast during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu coast during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north-westwards and lay centered at 1430 IST of 17th December, 2005 near Lat. 8.50 N and Long. 83.50 E about 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast across northern Srilanka during the next 48 hours.
Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along Tamilnadu coast during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu coast during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 9.5N 83.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 83.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.4N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.9N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.3N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.8N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 07B CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE
STORM WILL INTENSIFY MODESTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
NOTHING NEW!
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No. BOB/12/2005/13 Dated : 18th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu coast
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further north and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 18th December near Lat. 10.00 N and Long. 83.00 E about 350 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai by tomorrow, 19th December, evening. .
Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu coast
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further north and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 18th December near Lat. 10.00 N and Long. 83.00 E about 350 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai by tomorrow, 19th December, evening. .
Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.7N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.3N 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.9N 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A BROAD, MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEPARATE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE STORM.
TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER INDOCHINA. AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS EASTERN RIDGE SUBSIDES, THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF INDIA.
ALTHOUGH TC 07B RECENTLY STRENGTHENED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL
BE LIMITED AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND AND AS LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER EASTERN INDIA IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z
AND 190900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.6N 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.7N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.3N 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.9N 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A BROAD, MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEPARATE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE STORM.
TC 07B CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER INDOCHINA. AS THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS EASTERN RIDGE SUBSIDES, THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF INDIA.
ALTHOUGH TC 07B RECENTLY STRENGTHENED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL
BE LIMITED AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND AND AS LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER EASTERN INDIA IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z
AND 190900Z.//
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P.K.
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No. BOB/12/2005/17 Dated : 18th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu coast
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 hrs. IST of 18th December near Lat. 10.5o N and Long. 82.5o E about 300 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 19th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu coast
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 hrs. IST of 18th December near Lat. 10.5o N and Long. 82.5o E about 300 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 19th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No. BOB/12/2005/22 Dated : 19th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 20th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 20th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No. BOB/12/2005/23 Dated : 19th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 20th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving towards north Tamilnadu -south Andhra coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 hrs. IST of 19th December near Lat. 11.0o N and Long. 82.5o E about 250 km east of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by tomorrow, 20th December, night.
Under its influence widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off the above coasts during the same period.
State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu - south Andhra coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.0N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.1N 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.5N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.7N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREAS-
ING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 07B HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WILL ERODE THE WESTERN STEER-
ING RIDGE AND ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLOW OF THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE
CAUSING TC 07B TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z
AND 202100Z.//
NOTHING NEW TO TALK ABOUT!
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.0N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.1N 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.5N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.7N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREAS-
ING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 07B HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA AND INDOCHINA. A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WILL ERODE THE WESTERN STEER-
ING RIDGE AND ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLOW OF THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE
CAUSING TC 07B TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z
AND 202100Z.//
NOTHING NEW TO TALK ABOUT!
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Last advisory:
No. BOB/12/2005/27 Dated : 20th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving from the east coast of India
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved eastward and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 20th December near Lat. 11.5o N and Long. 83.5o E about 370 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northeasterly direction, away from the east coast of India.
This is the last bulletin for this system.
No. BOB/12/2005/27 Dated : 20th December, 2005
Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal moving from the east coast of India
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved eastward and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 20th December near Lat. 11.5o N and Long. 83.5o E about 370 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northeasterly direction, away from the east coast of India.
This is the last bulletin for this system.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.6N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.6N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.0N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.8N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE NEAR
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
WEST, ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST TO DOMINATE.
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEASTERN
ACCELERATION FOR TC 07B AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
PAST TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.6N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.6N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.0N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.8N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE NEAR
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
WEST, ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST TO DOMINATE.
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHICH WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEASTERN
ACCELERATION FOR TC 07B AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
PAST TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.5N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.7N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.7N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.1N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE
NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 24
WILL RESULT IN AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z AND 220300Z.//
GOING DOWN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY!
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.5N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.7N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.7N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.1N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE
NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 24
WILL RESULT IN AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z AND 220300Z.//
GOING DOWN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY!
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