1926 MIAMI HURRICANE....

[CHRISTY]

i was wondering in 2006 if cape verde storms get going and if high pressure parks itself next to the US is it possible we may see a repeat of 1926... hopefully not but i was just wondering what everybody thought! OPINIONS WELCOME..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well it would be catastrophic- timing would be the major factor-
the high would have to establish itself in that exact position...and
then the storm would have to form at a certain location and come
in at a specific angle- a direct repeat with exact path is highly
improbable...but if there is a strong high the east coast will have to
watch out...we'll know more about the possibilities once we
reach July/August of 2006 when we can better analyze the
dynamic proclivities of the Bermuda High. The high's dynamic
manifestations in terms of location, strength, and other
factors display small 1-2 year consistencies but often
evince substantial statistical variability over long periods of time. Back during the 1990s troughs and a differentially positioned high allowed many
storms to hit the Carolinas or stay off the coast. But 2004-2005
featured a larger more powerful high.

[Derek Ortt]

there was a trough for much of this past season

unfortunately, all the trough did was shear TD 10, letting it get to the west and become Katrina, kept the wave that became Rita as a wave until it interacted with the UL and became Rita, and sucked Wilma into S Fla

[weatherwindow]

castastrophic is the right word...luckily, the prospects of such a synoptic setup are fairly low...ie, look at the relative rarity of true cape verde systems(forming east of 40degW) impacting the southeast coast. the track dynamics of a US landfalling cape verde system require fairly contiguous upper level ridging from the area of formation to ~80degW. the typical synoptic pattern in the tropical atlantic during the season peak(aug-mid sept) would suggest ridging from the eastern atlantic west to ~50degW and weaker, less reliable ridging west of 70degW to ~80deg. these areas are typically separated by a persistent, upper level trough in the vicinity of the lesser antilles(60degW). super imposed on this pattern is the impact of midlatitude troughing on the steering flow. although seasonal patterns in this troughing tend to emerge, the steering setup as a system approaches a given longitude cannot be specified with any degreee of certainty beyond the forecast period. given the above factors, a US landfalling cape verde system would the unusual coincidence of: uninterrupted ridging in the eastern atl, a weaker, more northerly mid ocean trough, and the absence of significant troughing from the islands to 80degW. no wonder we dont have to face cape verde monsters very often...thank god.........rich

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see what kind of pattern sets up in 06. In 04, the high pressure ridge in the western Atlantic seemed to take hold in the spring time and was persistent through September, and this past season, it never seemed to be a dominating feature.