The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[southerngale]

I've got a 60% chance of rain/sleet overnight.

Lake Charles NWS does our forecasts and although I haven't read every single discussion, I've read many and haven't seen them mention anything remotely close to anything similar to frozen precip since the first person on this board mentioned the possibility and the model watch began. Not even earlier today. Things seem to change quite drastically, quickly.


Edit: Btw, they also call for a low of 42° - already sitting at 39°

[CajunMama]

I've got a 60% chance of rain/sleet overnight.

Lake Charles NWS does our forecasts and although I haven't read every single discussion, I've read many and haven't seen them mention anything remotely close to anything similar to frozen precip since the first person on this board mentioned the possibility and the model watch began. Not even earlier today. Things seem to change quite drastically, quickly.

me too! me too! <<<<me doing my sneaux dance!

[vbhoutex]

We had sleet late last night here in W Houston too. Not a lot but enough my wife came in and told me it was happening(smoke break). Of course when I got outside it had stopped. This morning it is 38º with light rain an maybe a sleet pellet or two mixed in.

[aggiecutter]

Both the EURO and the Ensembles went zonal after day 6 on yesterdays' runs. Now, both are bringing the ridge and the trough back next weekend. Everyone is always bashing the GFS, but the EURO is just as bad. It can't get a good handle on the artic air either. Remember, the EURO never saw last weeks ice event over North Texas. It was the GFS that caught the event 6 days out.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-172200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.  AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO CISCO.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS...TO HILLSBORO...TO
GOLDTHWAITE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT WINTER PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[Johnny]

The beginning of next week looks like it will turn out just like this weekend....a cold rain. Seriously, it's pretty much a non-event as far as wintery precipitation is concerned the beginning of this coming up week. It's almost time to throw in the towel on this thread.

[jeff]

Had about 5 minutes of rain/sleet mix at the house SE of Spring around 900pm last evening. Pellets were quite large, but melted soon after contact with temps. well about freezing.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah, but the Euro is still looking cold. Plus the GFS is never good with arctic air until it has already pretty much arrived. Either way, as of tonight I can already say I have seen my wintry precip. for the winter and if the snow/sleet event does not happen next week, I am satified with what I already got. I'll still hold out hope though until all hope is gone.

First...glad people saw sone sleet. Not unheard of on the mid-40's. IT stays solid falling through warm layers longer.

Looks like the EURO is warmer, not colder over HOU/IAH
WED 00Z 21-DEC 4.1/3.8C
THU 00Z 22-DEC 2.5/1.9C

That's up a couple of degrees and delayed.

[Johnny]

I'm not expecting any good news Jeff or AFM but what is y'alls latest analysis for next week?

[Portastorm]

I'm not expecting any good news Jeff or AFM but what is y'alls latest analysis for next week?

Like I posted the other day ... all of the hype and hullabaloo is just that ... hype and hullabaloo. The GFS and now the Euro are trending warmer. We all might as well pack it in.

All of our hopes are being dashed ... dang it!

[Brent]

The beginning of next week looks like it will turn out just like this weekend....a cold rain. Seriously, it's pretty much a non-event as far as wintery precipitation is concerned the beginning of this coming up week. It's almost time to throw in the towel on this thread.

Yep... you can join us now. I cannot remember the last snow event that was forecast in advance that happened and we had close to the amounts they predicted. Back in January 2000(the same weekend as the 2nd ice storm in Atlanta), we had been expecting 3-6" of snow. The storm gave out and dry air evaporated a lot of it. Ended up with barely enough to cover the ground.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree. Looks like chances for snow or sleet are almost non-existant for next week (unless for some reason we saw a repeat of last nights event...which was not even expected). I think the next thing we need to watch is a major arctic outbreak dipicted by the GFS on Dec. 30th. It brings 850mb temps. in Houston to as low as -5C to -10C. This is very far out, but would be in line with Joe Bastardi's idea of another arctic outbreak around the New Year. The latest GFS shows a MAJOR winter storm on New Years day, but as we all know, this is not to be trusted until we have model consistancy in the 2-4 day out time frame. Lots to watch in the days ahead, but before this New years (possible) event...a warm up looks to be in store for Christmas.

[plainsman]

i hate to break the new to southeast texans but its not gonna ice or sleet down there next week... the wintry chance could possibly effect austin and sanantonio.. doubtful though.. but Dallas could see a good chance of winter weather north of a line from sanangelo waco texarcana line winter precipataion could develop.. but thats how things are usually... heck the weather channel has the rain snow line just south of Dallas around waco......rain snow mix to the north of waco and all rain south of waco.. the weather channel is the most accurate i think...wichita falls lubbock amarrilo abilene could see good snow out of this... Dallas more of a snow/ rain mix though...oklahoma city should see some good snow also...anybody have any updates on the forcast tuesday in west and north Texas and Oklahoma.....

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the folks in North Texas could see some flurries or light snow on Tuesday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

[ETXHAMXYL]

Patiently waiting on this early week blizzard we were all suppose to get according to JB...looks like the event isn't coming this time around. Every local met is saying we will be lucky to see a few flurries but even that doesn't look like it will happen. Just a day or two of cold and then up in the 60's into 2006 with little or no precp.
This drought looks like it is still locked into place in NTX. Almost like a brick wall is surrounding us and not letting any moisture in our area. We are almost 17 inches below for this year. HOpe this new year brings us some rain.

[Brent]

Patiently waiting on this early week blizzard we were all suppose to get according to JB...looks like the event isn't coming this time around.

Don't hold your breath...

[jasons2k]

Patiently waiting on this early week blizzard we were all suppose to get according to JB...looks like the event isn't coming this time around.

Cut him a little slack. He hasn't said that in many days.

[jeff]

I'm not expecting any good news Jeff or AFM but what is y'alls latest analysis for next week?

Chances for any frozen precip. in SE TX, especially Houston are just about completely gone. There may be a little rain/snow mix just north of SE TX and S of I-20 in N TX Tuesday night, but no accumulation is expected.

Tuesday should be similar to yesterday with just a cold raw day with gusty winds and a steady to at times heavy rain.

[Portastorm]

Patiently waiting on this early week blizzard we were all suppose to get according to JB...looks like the event isn't coming this time around.

Cut him a little slack. He hasn't said that in many days.

When you go on the line and mention the word "blizzard" and say that "south and east Texas will be encased in ice" ... you're setting yourself up for either a great weather call or a miserable failure. It's like Air Force Met said in another post, JB is a very good forecaster and great at recognizing patterns but when he's wrong, he ought to just admit it and say "boy I blew it with the Texas forecast this week." Instead, he just doesn't address the issue.

Now keep in mind I am a big JB fan and subscriber and will continue to be, because I find merit in my monthly investment. But I do wish he would own up to those blown forecasts ... because against the averages, he is still better than most.

I'm pretty sure most of us now have accepted the fact that there will be no winter weather event in Texas, except maybe north of I-20.

[jasons2k]

Patiently waiting on this early week blizzard we were all suppose to get according to JB...looks like the event isn't coming this time around.

Cut him a little slack. He hasn't said that in many days.

When you go on the line and mention the word "blizzard" and say that "south and east Texas will be encased in ice" ... you're setting yourself up for either a great weather call or a miserable failure. It's like Air Force Met said in another post, JB is a very good forecaster and great at recognizing patterns but when he's wrong, he ought to just admit it and say "boy I blew it with the Texas forecast this week." Instead, he just doesn't address the issue.

Now keep in mind I am a big JB fan and subscriber and will continue to be, because I find merit in my monthly investment. But I do wish he would own up to those blown forecasts ... because against the averages, he is still better than most.

I'm pretty sure most of us now have accepted the fact that there will be no winter weather event in Texas, except maybe north of I-20.

I'm with you (please refer to some of my previous posts in this thread about JB and the previous TX snow thread).

I didn't read that day's column. I wonder if he said "A Blizzard" or "Blizzard conditions". There is a difference. People tend to exaggerate JB's comments on this site. I see it all the time. And FWIW Joe B. actually does own up to his mistakes. He even had a "taking out the trash" section in his column for many years, where he went into great detail over why a forecast was missed. That's much more "owning up" than just about anyone else.

Oh, and he has said in his column this week he blew the TX threat next week.