The Official Texas Snow Thread...

[amawea]

Jschlitz, I'm eating crow big time. I e-mailed jb about his busted forecast
last night. I have yet to get a reply and doubt that I will. Portastorms thoughts about JB pretty well reflect mine. He's good at patterns and I feel worth the small fee for his insight. I do wish he'd fess up though on this big Texas busted forecast. Actually, it was a bust for everyone east of the Rockies except the Northeast.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I'm not saying that JB can't forecast. ONly he needs to not blow things up so early and then drop the whole thing when it doesn't come to pass.

It is like a Chicken Little or Peter Wolf syndrome that he creates...and it takes away from his crediblity each time. I know forecasting isn't easy and Mother Nature is always in control, but come on BLIZZARD encased in ICE in TEXAS? Once in a 100 years or so yes, but look we are in a drought pattern a flake or two yeah but not to be encased in ICE.

Sad thing is he is right some of the time, but after hearing him make such strong steadfast, standing by my forecasts even if he is dead wrong makes you take him with a grain of salt afterwards.

He needs to say well things changed and it Aint' Gonna happen Texas and this is why....Not just be dead silent about it or push it under the rug.
I say eat your crow with whip cream, nuts and a cherry on top if you have to eat it.

Don't get me wrong I like JB just he needs to take it down a notch or two and have a little patience with when to sound an alarm.

[jasons2k]

Here are some selected JB comments over the last week in regards to the cold/snow threat, etc.

Yes, he overhyped the threat (as he often does with Texas threats). That's nothing new. But he does back off the idea.

Sometimes I think people try to read too much into what he's saying. I don't think being "encased" in ice translates into a glacier. Yes, he hypes too much sometimes. But then people pile-on hype to the hype and then people think he's a nut.

Monday:
"By morning {Monday} morning much of south and east Texas may be encased in ice and snow with record cold in the panhandle.

"As I see it now, Texas is under the gun the most. Ice and or snow can reach all the way to the lower rio Grande valley and gulf coast by Monday morning with much of the area west of I-35 and south, thats south, not north, of a line from Texarkana to I-35 west of Waco getting the snow and ice, as it comes southward with the arctic push in the west over the weekend then spreads southeast for the coast. Assuming skies clear out over Oklahoma and Texas, record or near record cold is possible early next week. Obviously this all part of the arctic attack I am whipping up for the northern plains and then driving south, reversing the chinook that has occurred. The first cold air mass will press south behind the low that is heading into the lakes mid week, which is part of point number 3. Obviously, given the fact that models are really not in any strong agreement, I am hanging my tail out to dry here"

"PRE CHRISTMAS BLIZZARD OF '05 NOW A GROWING CONCERN TO ME TEXAS TO NORTHEAST IN SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD"

Tuesday:
"Texas, our Texas, all hail the mighty state...the opening lines of the State song. ( The Eyes of Texas, as performed by the Texas Longhorns is not the state song, at least that is what we were taught as school children in Aggieland). In any case How about changing the words to " snow, sleet and freezing rain stomping the mighty state" and lets include Oklahoma and then into Arkansas and then tell folks in the Carolinas to watch out too. This is trouble and big trouble this weekend into early next week. The arctic surge down the front range means another wickedly cold front range storm is on the way for Wyoming, through denver where another snow event with temps in the single digits is on the way this later this week. The cold settles into Texas this weekend.

As the press arrives Thursday and Friday light snow and ice breaks out and it appears to me that low pressure that develops in the western gulf Saturday has a chance to run out in front with its snow and ice into the hill country, then east northeast north of I-20 and into the carolinas as a light though pain in the neck event Sunday.

But this is the appetizer to the main course that develops Monday across the lone star state, a day that could be as wintery as any we have seen in many a year with most station north of I-10 with some form of frozen precip and the chance of the frozen precip reaching the gulf coast Monday night. This is the start of what I think could turn into one of the great pre-Christmas winter events from the south in many a year.

Previous posts are archived to explain to the reader why I am so concerned about this, and until there is overwhelming evidence against it, and that can not be until early next week, I am convinced we are looking at the major storm, perhaps even a blizzard like system that gets its start in the south land and winds up coming up the east coast. Again, it has to do with looking at the overall pattern, and for the sake of time, I am not going to rehash it. Yes a wave or two may escape, but the jammed up look of the atlantic and other past great storms having very similar set ups...among them the super storm of 1993, and tomorrow we will look at the blizzard of 1966 and its look, have me thinking that in a pattern of extremes, the extreme is likely to happen."

Here is where he backs away from it:

Thursday:
"But the cold I am talking about is not going to get re-enforced so the core of cold comes in a shorter span and a bit quicker than what has been talked about over the past couple of weeks."

Saturday:
"PLAINS TEMP REVERSAL. Now here is where I will hang my hat on a week of warmth. First of all, the air mass coming through the next 5 days is not as cold as I opined earlier, but its cold with 3 day means over the central plains into the midwest of 10 below normal and in Texas even colder than that when it gets there. Its not picnic in Texas today especially south Texas where temps in the 40s on the gulf coast are 25 below normal for daytime maxes. So lets not get too carried away with the "no cold air yell" Fact is the next week continues to slam away the idea that it was going to be a warmer than normal month in the southern plains. Not that forecasting normal is anything to be proud of either."

(talking about thr Pacific NW):
"By the way, the winter in this area as well as over the plateau has been OPPOSITE of my idea so far."

"I was looking at temps in Texas this afternoon. For instance, there is Houston 10-15 below normal in an air mass the models had 5 below for today a few days ago. Its not like there is no cold air. But it will be interesting to see how some things play out this upcoming week."

[Portastorm]

As a post mortem to "The Great Texas Blizzard That Wasn't" ... kudos go out to the GFS model. The much-maligned American medium-range model was the first to pick up on the warmer-and-drier-than-initially-thought trend. And as it turns out, the GFS was right!

Most of us like to kick it around, but this time the GFS did its job well.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

As a post mortem to "The Great Texas Blizzard That Wasn't" ... kudos go out to the GFS model. The much-maligned American medium-range model was the first to pick up on the warmer-and-drier-than-initially-thought trend. And as it turns out, the GFS was right!

Most of us like to kick it around, but this time the GFS did its job well.

Kudos to the GFS. Meanwhile we'll enjoy our Christmas day with temps in the 60's and 70's.

On another note, JB is already hyping up a cold January. I think this time I'll stick with the GFS in hoping that rooting for it will cause it to show a warm trend and that will jinx it and then cause it to bust in a big way.

[gboudx]

And in the meantime, NTX remains in a bad drought. We just can't catch a break with rain this year. Seems like there's a wall around this region that prevents rain from entering.

[jasons2k]

I'll *gladly* take the 60's and 70's during Christmas. Perfect weather to fry a turkey outdoors!

That's one of the GREAT things about Texas!! (at least southern Texas). We're the envy of our neighbors to the north....at least this time of the year...so I'll enjoy it while it lasts.

[CaptinCrunch]

How funny, last week we were talking of arctic cold and a chance of snow, now it's a warm Christmas with high's in the mid 60's.

I will not jump the gun, but early next week things may turn much colder for the coming new year.

[aggiecutter]

The Ensembles go to a January-February of 78' pattern at the first of the year. We'll see what happens.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[Kelarie]

Come on, this is Texas - no rain, no snow, and no more cold ever.

Just face it, hot hot hot is our future

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The Ensembles go to a January-February of 78' pattern at the first of the year. We'll see what happens.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

Fill me in on 1978. I know the Cowboys won a Super Bowl in January 1978. But what was the pattern during that span? Here in Texas, that is.

[aggiecutter]

Here in Texarkana, we had measureable winter precipitation(sleet, snow, freezing rain) an amazing 8 straight weeks in a row. Several of the winter events were major, and we had a stretch of 12 days where the temperature didn't get above freezing. I think that was by far the most severe winter overall for Texas in the last 50-70 years.

[gboudx]

Just how accurate are those ensembles? And what did they show for this week?

[CaptinCrunch]

The Ensembles go to a January-February of 78' pattern at the first of the year. We'll see what happens.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

January may be a very cold month for allot of folks East of the Rockies including some parts of the deep south.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just looking at the daily maxes for Corpus for January 1978 and I guess taking the warm now for Christmas is a good trade off if the pattern flips to one similar back then. I will definately run out of firewood if it happens!

[jasons2k]

Just looking at the daily maxes for Corpus for January 1978 and I guess taking the warm now for Christmas is a good trade off if the pattern flips to one similar back then. I will definately run out of firewood if it happens!

I agree with that!

I was just checking and Houston had 6 days in a row of record low max temperatures. They were all highs of 36 or below, the lowest being on the 20th with a high of 29, and the 21st with a high of 30.

If that were to happen this year, it would be devastating for garden enthusiasts and the landscaping industry.

The majority of palm species would be killed, except hardy varieties such as Sabal Palms, Mexican Fan Palms, Windmill palms, etc.

All the Queen Palms, California (Washingtonia) Palms, Date Palms, Canary Date Palms, and many bedding plants we take for granted (philodendrons, oleanders, lantanas, etc.) would be history.

I was in Tampa in 1983 when it hit 19 degrees. It was a disaster. I wouldn't want to see something like that again.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just looking at the daily maxes for Corpus for January 1978 and I guess taking the warm now for Christmas is a good trade off if the pattern flips to one similar back then. I will definately run out of firewood if it happens!

I agree with that!

I was just checking and Houston had 6 days in a row of record low max temperatures. They were all highs of 36 or below, the lowest being on the 20th with a high of 29, and the 21st with a high of 30.

If that were to happen this year, it would be devastating for garden enthusiasts and the landscaping industry.

The majority of palm species would be killed, except hardy varieties such as Sabal Palms, Mexican Fan Palms, Windmill palms, etc.

All the Queen Palms, California (Washingtonia) Palms, Date Palms, Canary Date Palms, and many bedding plants we take for granted (philodendrons, oleanders, lantanas, etc.) would be history.

I was in Tampa in 1983 when it hit 19 degrees. It was a disaster. I wouldn't want to see something like that again.

I was in the RGV in 1983 and 1989 and I recall my moms tropical vegetation get whacked both times. What didn't die in 1983 as far as tropical trees and citrus, almost ceratinly did in 89. Not even the worst droughts made things look as brown as it did after those two hits,

Sustatined cold with a couple of dips below freezing would be good for killing off bugs and mold. Not to mention cool off the Gulf waters which might help calm things down for the next Hurricane season. Every degree can help.

[jasons2k]

Not even the worst droughts made things look as brown as it did after those two hits.

Definitely true. It's instantaneous death. I've only hit 31 at my house this season and my Banana trees are already completely brown. But that happens almost every year. They'll come back (unless this cold wave materializes).

'83 was depressing. Palm after palm was killed. The last of Tampa's royal palms along Bayshore Blvd. were all killed. It pretty much ended the citrus industry in most of Hillsborough County. Row after row of dead trees, for miles.

Whenever there is a 50 or 100-year freeze along the gulf coast or in Florida, it changes the landscape for many, many years. It's not a pretty sight to see a bunch of dead, brown trunks.

And palms don't come cheap, either.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Not even the worst droughts made things look as brown as it did after those two hits.

Definitely true. It's instantaneous death. I've only hit 31 at my house this season and my Banana trees are already completely brown. But that happens almost every year. They'll come back (unless this cold wave materializes).

'83 was depressing. Palm after palm was killed. The last of Tampa's royal palms along Bayshore Blvd. were all killed. It pretty much ended the citrus industry in most of Hillsborough County. Row after row of dead trees, for miles.

Whenever there is a 50 or 100-year freeze along the gulf coast or in Florida, it changes the landscape for many, many years. It's not a pretty sight to see a bunch of dead, brown trunks.

And palms don't come cheap, either.

Same with the RGV. We had palm tree sgalore that were some 30+ feet high and most of them were killed. And what happen after that was some folks didn't cut them down and later they would fall down and become hazards. It was sad indeed.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I remember New Years of 78 was a Major Ice Storm here in NTX. Lots of babies were born come Sept of that year. Lots of Ice and major cold in Jan of that year. I was in Jr. High and we had lots of snow days that year.
So when you say '78 I think of ice. Would love cold and snow but no ice PLEEEZE!!!