I've noticed that Florida has been, for the past two to three years or slightly less/more, experiencing above-average temperatures for this time of year in November and December. In previous years, Florida normally experienced cooler (and drier) bursts of conditions in the early part of the dry season, increasing into more permanent dry and clear conditions into November and December from increasing fronts passing through (which created periods of very cool weather for Florida, especially central and southern Florida). In past years for quite a while, with the possible exception of El Nino years, these have been typical dry season (winter) conditions for central and southern Florida, with several cold blasts of air coming through, with occasional freezing conditions on occasional to rare times. Also, clear and dry conditions (except when fronts passed through) after constant fronts used to be, until very recently, typical dry season (winter) conditions in central and southern Florida. In very recent years, however, beginning in around 2001 or 2002 (from what I've kept track of), central and southern Florida has been experiencing warmer and warmer, above-average temperatures for this time of year and less truly cool or cold, occasional blasts than what I have normally previously seen. Also, more fronts have been stalling over south Florida (even some of the strongest fronts) at this time of year than previously. Previously, more fronts like this made it down through the peninsula. All these unseasonal conditions are being experienced in my area, throughout southern Florida, and in parts of central Florida. In recent years - especially this year - since this trend began, I have been experiencing more moister and rainier conditions for this time of year (the dry season) than what was previously normal and more typical for this time of year. Could Florida (especially south and central Florida) be entering a warmer, moister cycle than what has been the norm for a long time? Could it be that the typical, seasonal, cool, relatively clear conditions for this time of year that south and central Florida has normally experienced up until recently was a long cycle, and that we are now transitioning into a warmer, moister cycle in winter and the dry season?
Thoughts, comments, and opinions are welcome! Any thoughts on how this might influence tropical weather is also welcome!
An Interesting Trend In Dry Season Florida Conditions
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MiamiensisWx
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Scorpion
I cannot be sure if this is a pattern or not, as there are many things that disclaim the things you have said. I remember several years before 2002 where there has been a similar pattern to the one now. Also, January 2003 saw record cold, although early 2004 and 2005 had little to no cold snaps. This year seems to be odd though. There doesn't seem to be any fronts coming down to bring cold air anytime soon. For late December it is strange. If January turns out to be warm as well then you might be on something.
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MiamiensisWx
Scorpion wrote:I cannot be sure if this is a pattern or not, as there are many things that disclaim the things you have said. I remember several years before 2002 where there has been a similar pattern to the one now. Also, January 2003 saw record cold, although early 2004 and 2005 had little to no cold snaps. This year seems to be odd though. There doesn't seem to be any fronts coming down to bring cold air anytime soon. For late December it is strange. If January turns out to be warm as well then you might be on something.
I agree. It has also been much moister (instead of typically drier) for this time of year in central and southern Florida so far. This year (even now), I have received more showers or thunderstorms later and later on into fall and winter. Less fronts are making it past here, also unusual. Have you noticed both?
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Scorpion
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MiamiensisWx
Scorpion wrote:Well actually I haven't noticed anything different this year regarding shower activity. The only thing that strikes me as odd this year was the early cold snap with Wilma and then a rather chilly November followed by a pretty warm December.
That's odd... my area is above average in temperatures and, possibly, in precipitation. Is Boca Raton above average in precipitation this year, Scorpion?
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MiamiensisWx
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MiamiensisWx