Arctic Outbreak after Christmas...

[Johnny]

As we know, no snow will be falling from the sky this coming week for the deep south. It was exciting watching the possibilities and the good thing is we might have something else to talk about. I hear through the grapevine that we might have something to watch once we get Christmas out of the way. Possibly an arctic outbreak for us going into the New Year? This topic is open for the entire deep south.

[Portastorm]

Oh please, not again!

Didn't we just go through this ...

[Johnny]

Hey, this is what we are here for, right?

[Portastorm]

Hey, this is what we are here for, right?

Threat of Arctic Outbreak = Lucy telling Charlie Brown to kick the football

Me Wanting to Believe = Charlie Brown

[Lindaloo]

LOL Portastorm.

Well if this rumor is true, I will take it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Hey, this is what we are here for, right?

Threat of Arctic Outbreak = Lucy telling Charlie Brown to kick the football

Me Wanting to Believe = Charlie Brown

I agree with this statement 100%.

When my pipes are bursting and they close down the highways down here, then I'll believe it .

Meanwhile, it looks like no fireplace weather for Christmas un
less I turn on the A/C and set the temp at about 55.

But if I can watch the bowl games with a good fire going, that would be ok.

I can't wait for JB to put that football in front of us again>

[ETXHAMXYL]

Sad thing is Charlie Brown never got to kick the Football Did He?
Well Texas Coastal folks got to finally kick theirs last Christmas, but that will probably be the last chance in a long time coming.

Lucky shot for Charlie and JB.

[EDR1222]

For our area here in Central Florida, temps are forecast to be a little above normal according the NWS Melbourne. So it will be interesting to see what happens as we get into January.

[Johnny]

Does anyone have any updates on the possible arctic air going into the New Year?

[Brent]

I don't see it being extremely cold... and it looks like most of it goes east of Texas. Looks like a very quick shot though, followed by a warmup, and then more brief cold snaps.

[Portastorm]

I'm not much of an expert in reading the NCEP ensembles ... but from what I saw this morning vs. yesterday, it appears the 500 mb pattern for late Dec/early Jan doesn't look as cold today as it did yesterday. And I'm talking about the flow pattern from the polar regions into Texas and the southern Plains.

[Kludge]

Have you seen the old sign in the barbershop that says, "Free Haircuts Tomorrow"? Of course, the sign always says tomorrow, so the free haircut is always a day away.

Well, I think JB should have a header on his Column every day that says 'Blizzard for Texas...next week".

Come to think of it...he sorta does!

[aggiecutter]

Kludge: that is funny, but true. That kinda reminds me of the weatherman that always says it is going to rain tomorrow. Eventually, it will. The 12z Ensembles have an interesting solution for days 4-6. It really digs the trough deep into Texas. That is the first time I've seen that. The previous runs have indicated a moderate warm-up for Christmas weekend.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22012.html

Know wonder the Ensembles are digging the trough deep into the southern plains. They are cranking a pretty good storm over Louisiana, with it tracking up into the Tennessee Valley.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22012.html

[WhiteShirt]

The 12z Ensembles have an interesting solution for days 4-6. It really digs the trough deep into Texas. That is the first time I've seen that. The previous runs have indicated a moderate warm-up for Christmas weekend.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22012.html

Does that mean the possibility of cold weather in Texas for Christmas?

[Portastorm]

The 12z Ensembles have an interesting solution for days 4-6. It really digs the trough deep into Texas. That is the first time I've seen that. The previous runs have indicated a moderate warm-up for Christmas weekend.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22012.html

Does that mean the possibility of cold weather in Texas for Christmas?

Today's 12z GFS operational run shows a brief shot of cold into Texas on Dec. 26-27. Per this run at least, temps look to be 10-15 degrees below normal. Dunno about precip though. Didn't look at that.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run of the operational model shows basically the same solution.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

[Kelarie]

Okay guys, let me bring you back to reality. We live in Texas, there is no such thing as cold. Come on, Portastorm, you know just like I do, no more cold for this year, we have had our yearly shot and that is it.

So spring should be here in a couple of weeks....

[Portastorm]

Okay guys, let me bring you back to reality. We live in Texas, there is no such thing as cold. Come on, Portastorm, you know just like I do, no more cold for this year, we have had our yearly shot and that is it.

So spring should be here in a couple of weeks....

Ha, ha, ha ... you keep trying the Ol' Reverse Psychology ploy, Kelarie, maybe it'll work for you. Didn't work for some of us on here!

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like the past couple of years winter has been over (except for maybe one cold snap) after December. However we must remember some of our coldest arctic outbreaks have come in January and February.

[Portastorm]

Those of us in Louisiana and Texas will have to wait and see how that trough next week shakes out in the eastern U.S. It looks fairly likely that a strong arctic blast will impact those areas but whether or not that trough backs west enough to "back door" the cold air, who knows?

A good friend of mine who is a private met told me today he has a hunch that if the NAO does go "into the tank" negative as many are saying, that he thinks the cold air may spread west and impact us to some degree.