Texas Winter=Cancel?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is it over now since we are not digging out from the Great Texas Blizzard of 2005? I haven't seen one post today from our Texas people about pattern changes or a carbon copy of January 1978 or 79 coming up.

What's going on?

[gboudx]

I wouldn't push the Cancel button too quickly. We still have the heart of Winter to go through. A 30 page Texas snow thread is only a GFS 14-day solution away.

[Kennethb]

Winter will come around and punch you when you least expect it. I concur with all of January and February still to come, the period when we traditionally see our coldest weather.

[Brent]

If the long term forecasts are right, January's going to be about normal(which compared to now would be a heat wave) and then February's going to be REALLY warm. We were in a perfect pattern for a snowstorm across the Deep South all month and it just hasn't verified.

[jasons2k]

I hope it is cancelled. If I wanted cold weather I'd move up north. But as Harold Taft used to say, enjoy the pleasant weather now, we'll have to pay for it someday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt it is cancelled. In fact I think January will be the host to many arctic threats, and a few of them will most likely verify. I think the CPC forecast of above normal temps. is not going to play out...just think, they had most of the country forecasted to be near normal for December and many places have been well below normal. Here in Houston we are 5 degrees below normal so far this December, and some places across the midwest are as much as 13 below normal. This has been one of the top 10 coldest starts to winter (for the nation as a whole) in the last 50 years. Here in Houston we have already seen a day with a high in the 30s and four days with highs in the 40s (north Houston). It is rare for us to see days below 40 in a typical winter, so I would say we are off to a good start so far, and January should be as cold (or even colder) then December was when compared to the normal temps. Just because we will see a "warm up" (if you consider 68-71 warm), over the next few days, that does not mean winter is over. In fact, another decent front is forecast to slice through next week and the NWS has already forecasted a high of 56 next Wednesday, and it looks like it may get even colder around New years. We'll have to wait and see...

[Portastorm]

Huh?

What?

Winter in Texas? .... ah .... yeah ....


(Portastorm goes back to sleep)

[boca]

You guys in Texas shouldn't complain because here in Florida especially South Florida we have spring and fall in January the rest of the time its summer.

[CajunMama]

You guys in Texas shouldn't complain because here in Florida especially South Florida we have spring and fall in January the rest of the time its summer.

Well here in LA we have 4 seasons...

Almost Summer
Summer
Still Summer
Christmas

[ETXHAMXYL]

Seems like most of our warm Christmases in NTX were followed by Very Cold Januarys if I remember them. Does anyone have stats that might back up my thoughts? I'm not one for stats but Im sure others out there love to look up the numbers on things such as that.

I think there was an old weather saying that goes something like Green Christmas, White Easter and White Christmas, Green Easter...but that was probably for folks up north instead of the southern states.

[jasons2k]

Not exactly pleased this morning. The NWS had a forecasted low of 34 for my location. I didn't cover my plants; I was not anticipating or preparing for a freeze.

We hit 31 with freezing fog. Ice all over my plants. My hibiscus and majesty palms will get leaf burn. I think this was the last straw for the banana trees too. grrrrrrrr.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Is it over now since we are not digging out from the Great Texas Blizzard of 2005? I haven't seen one post today from our Texas people about pattern changes or a carbon copy of January 1978 or 79 coming up.

What's going on?

I remember 78 and 79 I was about 10 or 11 then, it got quite cold and icy for southeast texas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Anything new this morning? For what it's worth, JB thinks the Arctic attack starts again late next week, but he doesn't mention the south too much nor Texas.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

ya think jb may be gun shy on southern texas now? just a thought

[gboudx]

Not exactly pleased this morning. The NWS had a forecasted low of 34 for my location. I didn't cover my plants; I was not anticipating or preparing for a freeze.

We hit 31 with freezing fog. Ice all over my plants. My hibiscus and majesty palms will get leaf burn. I think this was the last straw for the banana trees too. grrrrrrrr.

Just dig all that up and plant hardier shrubs. Problem solved.

[jasons2k]

Not exactly pleased this morning. The NWS had a forecasted low of 34 for my location. I didn't cover my plants; I was not anticipating or preparing for a freeze.

We hit 31 with freezing fog. Ice all over my plants. My hibiscus and majesty palms will get leaf burn. I think this was the last straw for the banana trees too. grrrrrrrr.

Just dig all that up and plant hardier shrubs. Problem solved.

Easier said than done. The good news is that all I have to worry about is trimming them back, for now. They'll come back.

But if we had a hard freeze and I lost all the tender plants and palms I have, I'd lose several thousand dollars worth. That's not pocket change...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems like most of our warm Christmases in NTX were followed by Very Cold Januarys if I remember them. Does anyone have stats that might back up my thoughts? I'm not one for stats but Im sure others out there love to look up the numbers on things such as that.

I think there was an old weather saying that goes something like Green Christmas, White Easter and White Christmas, Green Easter...but that was probably for folks up north instead of the southern states.

I checked out the top 5 warmest christmas days in Houston (all 74+) and then looked at what followed that winter. This Christmas should not be in the top 5 as Houston is only expecting a high near 65 (which is actually near normal temp. wise).

Christmas 1964 = Houston hits 82 degrees! That following February Houston gets an ice storm.

Christmas 1955 = Houston hits 81 degrees! This was followed by a pretty normal winter.

Christmas 1987 = Houston hits 78 degrees! During the following February, Houston sees an ice storm.

Christmas 1951 = Houston hits 76 degrees! I can not find good data on the following Jan/Feb.

Christmas 1982 = Houston hits 74 degrees! This was followed by a normal Jan/Feb.

After all 5 of these warm christmas days, Houston did not see an extreme freeze, or a 2+ day period below 32. So, overall the winters that resulted were near normal or slightly below. The difference between those years and this year though, is that this christmas should not be one of the top 5 warmest. In fact it should not be anywhere close. I would expect upper 50s to near 60 in North Texas, lower to middle 60s in central Texas and upper 60s to lower 70s in south Texas. I think we are on track to see a colder than normal January and February, and the colder weather will return by the middle of next week and get even colder into the New Year. I would expect another threat of an *arctic* surge and possible wintry weather to come in early January. We'll see...

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter wont be canceled, it will just take a brake till after the 1st of Jan. This current warm up goes all the way into Canada along and just east of the rockies. Parts of SD and ND will see temps in the upper 50 to lower 60's which is 20 degrees above normal, the E coast will see some chilly weather but not any real bone chilling cold wx for the next week.

Looking at the MRF the next cool down (temps back to or just below normal) for TX will be just after New Years Day. December has been cold for TX standards, (AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP: 44.1) for December so far (DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.6) but with the last week of Dec looking to be above avg we should avg right at the monthly normal for Dec.

January we will see the return of a western ridge and with that the increasing chance of arctic outbreaks all the down to TX and parts of the deep south. I also beleive the SJS will be more active during the month of January, keeping the chance of winter precip for parts of TX a real threat.

Feburary may indeed be warmer than avg but not by much. I just hope by mid March a wet patteren will setup for a few weeks to releive this drought.

For Dallas/Fort Worth, 2005 stands to be the driest year since the drought of the 1950s!

[corpusbreeze]

Well get a good artic front right around spring break.

[WhiteShirt]

I emailed Joe Bastardi asking him was there an arctic front anytime soon for the Texas coast. He said late next week.