18z GFS-Snow for MS/AL/GA/TN on Christmas???

[Brent]

Hmmmmmm....





Just a reminder, an upper level low caused the surprise snow in Texas last year.

[JenyEliza]

Dreamer!

[Brent]

Dreamer!

Well we are inside 48 hours...

[JenyEliza]

Do you think you've been good enough this year to merit a *now storm around Christmas?

I mean...ya know....it was close to 60 today where I live. And we're supposed to believe *now could be on it's way?



(trying reverse psychology on the wx again).

[Nimbus]

Looks like things are coming together for a New England northeaster.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ME/discussion.html

You never know how quickly these coastal lows are going to deepen till the last few hours but some of the mets are starting to go out on a limb.

[beachbum_al]

Hey Can't we dream a bit here down in Dixie. It does feel colder than what the computer is saying.

[Brent]

0z GFS shows the same look!!! I've got a feeling... the storms we actually get snow from don't show up until the day before.





At the VERY least, I think there's a chance of some snow falling on Christmas even down into Central AL and GA. Accumulations look iffy. Just depends on A. If it actually happens B. How heavy it is C. How cold it is. I'm still concerned it may be too warm at the surface, but these ULL's bring their own cold air and it could snow at 40 degrees...

[breeze]

I WANT to see snow for Christmas!

But...*sigh....I have to be Scrooge and I believe that
any precip will fall in the liquid form here in Dixie....

Get yer umbrellas out.

[southerngale]

Your topic is misleading. I'm in the deep south and from what I can tell, I'm excluded on that map.

BAH HUMBUG!!

[vbhoutex]

LOL @ Kelly!!! You read it right.

Earlier runs were showing this also, but if I remember them correctly they were showing more cold air and snow all the way to the coast as a possibility. The model has definitely warmed up this run, but you all still have some time to go. Maybe you will get a few flakes out of it.

[Brent]

Your topic is misleading. I'm in the deep south and from what I can tell, I'm excluded on that map.

BAH HUMBUG!!

I'm really concerned about the stupid surface temperatures being too warm. At this point, I'd just like to see some snow falling on Christmas... or any day for that matter.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE.
RAIN CHANCES START OVER THE W LATER TODAY THEN SWEEP ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG LOW AND UPPER JETS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WITH FRONT. UPPER SYSTEM
HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT AND MOVES ACROSS AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED LATE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST CHRISTMAS WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER
SYSTEM AND YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
AIRMASS GETS COLDER ALOFT OVER N GA CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

[JenyEliza]

That's just an early April Fool's joke from FFC, Brent.



(still trying that reverse psychology)

[Lowpressure]

Still laughing at you two. I am also watching this system with interest, I think they may be undercutting the ULL as Brent pointed out. NWS now mentioning thundersnow in the NC mountains with second (upper)system. Here we have been cold in the mornings, 15.1 Thurs, 15.1 Fri, and 21.4 now. It is strange to be 56 degrees in the afternoon and still see frozen puddles/ponds.

[JenyEliza]

We were at 58 here in Atlanta yesterday....it's 24 now.

I'd dearly love to see some *now showers for Christmas....I'm just not going to pin my hopes on it. I've lived here long enough to know it just doesn't happen.

If it *does*, then I'll be thrilled...and so will my kids. Even if it doesn't stick (and it won't).

MERRY CHRISTMAS...

Jen

[beachbum_al]

Bring that snow on! I don't think it is going to happen though

[Brent]

I don't think so either... I still would say some snowflakes are possible right under the track of the ULL, I just think the stupid surface temperatures are going to be too warm. You cannot get snow at 42-45 degrees...

But... ULL=Weatherman's woe.

[Brent]

Well... it's raining in Kansas City under the ULL.

We don't have a chance.

[ktulu909]

Just remember to be careful what you ask for,remember New Orleans got snow last year and mother nature balanced it out with Katrina and Rita!

[Brent]

FFC... all hope may not be lost quite yet. It has turned COLD here with this first area of rain.

MODELS STILL INDICATING WRAPAROUND ACROSS NRN 2/3RDS OF CWA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
...AGAIN SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT. IF WE COULD GET SOME MDT TO HEAVY BANDS OF
PRECIP IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE AND
PERHAPS ACCUMULATE...HOWEVER LIGHT PRECIPITAION IS ABOUT THE BEST
ONE COULD HOPE FOR WITH THIS PATTERN.