Global Warming?

[azsnowman]

OK....I'll probably get BLASTED for this but are we in the Southwest witnessing an unprecidented Global Warming event right before our eyes?

In my 39 yrs. of living in the high country of Northern Az. have I witnessed a dry, WARM winter like THIS. We've had 3 small forest fires last week, we are loosing evergreen trees at breakneck speed this winter........it's downright UNREAL! ALL of the lakes in the high country are ICE FREE......

Dennis

[P.K.]

Well it certainly appears above average there at the moment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn72280_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn72278_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn72274_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn72374_1yr.gif

Precipitation also looks to be above average.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn72280_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn72278_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn72274_1yr.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn72374_1yr.gif

[WindRunner]

Above-average only because of their moist late winter and spring earlier this year. If you look at the charts you gave (P.K.), you can see that they have had 0 rain since around mid-October. That's exceptionally dry for that area during this time of year.

I don't think its Global Warming, though, Dennis. It just doesn't quite seem right. Now you get periods like this over the next 5+ years, then I would start to say something. At this point, though, I don't think this has anything to do with global warming. (and I still do not believe in it - it's all part of a cycle!) Abnormally warm and dry, sure, definately from what the data shows and what you describe, but don't hit that "PANIC" button just yet . . .

Kyle

[x-y-no]

No way to say. You're certainly seeing a pretty strong regional extreme there this year, but there's no way with current modelling skill to definitively ascribe this to GW. There are other regions seeing exceptional cold too, and that's also not possible to relate to GW at our current level of understanding.

(see my reply in the other recent thread)