Texas Winter=Cancel?
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I just looked at the temps. we have had for the last week and noticed that we have not gotten above 60 degrees since December 15th, and that we have had 3 days with highs below 50 during the last 7 days. Keep in mind that the average high for us this time of the year is 63-64. Also (in my backyard) I have not had a low above 40 since December 14th. It's amazing how things change though. Today we are in the lower to middle 70s for the first time in 10 days and the low tonight should be ONLY in the 50s for the first time since December 3rd! Looks like the next 7 days will stay near or above normal temp. wise, but we should cool back down come January. Certainly a nice start to the winter around here though, we are 5.4 degrees below avg. for the first 22 days of December, and even with a few days above normal to finish the month, we should still be a good 2-4 degrees below normal for the entire month of December.
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[quote="jschlitz"]The Canary Dates, True Dates, Mexican, California and Chinese Fan Palms would all be killed at 5 degrees.
Umm, no they wouldn't, not necessarily. There are lots of factors involved in how much cold the hardier palms can take, especially moisture. You can't just put a tag on a plant and expect it to be 100% accurate all the time.
All of those palms above have withstood single digits in El Paso and tolerate temperatures below freezing for many nights annually, and a lot of the above palms (in fact MOST of the above) withstood 6 degrees in San Antonio in 1989. Losses were actually much heavier in the 1983 freeze, which was not as cold but was more prolonged and had cooler wet weather after the freeze, which caused a lot of rot to set in. I've been growing palms in South Texas since the mid-80s, trust me I know what can tolerate what.
Umm, no they wouldn't, not necessarily. There are lots of factors involved in how much cold the hardier palms can take, especially moisture. You can't just put a tag on a plant and expect it to be 100% accurate all the time.
All of those palms above have withstood single digits in El Paso and tolerate temperatures below freezing for many nights annually, and a lot of the above palms (in fact MOST of the above) withstood 6 degrees in San Antonio in 1989. Losses were actually much heavier in the 1983 freeze, which was not as cold but was more prolonged and had cooler wet weather after the freeze, which caused a lot of rot to set in. I've been growing palms in South Texas since the mid-80s, trust me I know what can tolerate what.
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- jasons2k
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richtrav wrote:[Umm, no they wouldn't, not necessarily. There are lots of factors involved in how much cold the hardier palms can take, especially moisture. You can't just put a tag on a plant and expect it to be 100% accurate all the time.
All of those palms above have withstood single digits in El Paso and tolerate temperatures below freezing for many nights annually, and a lot of the above palms (in fact MOST of the above) withstood 6 degrees in San Antonio in 1989. Losses were actually much heavier in the 1983 freeze, which was not as cold but was more prolonged and had cooler wet weather after the freeze, which caused a lot of rot to set in. I've been growing palms in South Texas since the mid-80s, trust me I know what can tolerate what.
For one, most of the data doesn't support this. 5* F is FAR out of the lethal range for those palms.
Also, as you alluded to, moisture is a huge factor. Palms grown in El Paso are acclimated to periods of little moisture. In addition, they are better acclimated for cold, dry nights during the winter.
On the other hand, the same species of palms in Houston are more acclimated to a warmer, more humid climate. When an arctic front passes through, these palms are less prepared and quickly go into shock.
Look at what happened to Brownsville, much further south than Houston in 1983, and it was only in the TEENS (19 in Brownsville):
"Most of the Valley was slightly colder -- McAllen recorded 19° and Weslaco had 17°. Though slightly shorter than the outbreaks of 1951 and 1962, this freeze brought a much longer sustained duration of temperature in the mid-twenties or below. Such a prolonged period of deep-freezing weather had not been seen in Brownsville since the previous century. It particularly resembled the cold outbreaks of 1852, 1873, and 1888.
This freeze may forever be known as the freeze that killed the palm trees in the Valley. Anyone who lived in the Valley before 1983 remembers well the thousands of tall slender Washingtonia robusta lining the local roads for mile after mile. The dead stumps were a sad sight on the Valley skyline for several years afterwards -- some still remain to this day. Citrus also received a good beating, the worst since 1951. The Valley got such a cleaning from 1983 it would almost make the worst freeze of the century seem anticlimactic."
"Prior to the 1983 freeze, the valley skyline was awesome. The major roads were lined with Mexican fan palms (Washingtonia robusta) from one end of the valley to the other. Many yards and businesses were showplaces of various species of palms, cycads, and other tropical plants. The Gladys Porter Zoo was a botanical delight. But this grandeur came to a brief halt on Christmas day of 1983. The freeze destroyed virtually all of the 80 to 90 foot tall, skirtless, Mexican fan palms. Yards with more exotic, tropical palms were devastated. Dead citrus and avocado groves were lined with dead palms. The removal of these palms was considerably more expensive than the original purchase and planting, and many of the homeowners vowed to never again replant these tender varieties."
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic06.htm
FWIW I've been growing palms in Florida and TX since the mid 80's myself.
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JS
Thanks for citing my old article
You're on the right track, there are lots of factors that come into play, in areas like deep South Texas or Central Florida it often won't take much cold at all to kill things, for various reasons, mostly because of the humid climate and a lack of hardening in those areas. But it was surprising how many palms withstood 6 degrees in 1989 in San Antonio. So it's not an automatic death sentence
I've got to admit your attitude is more realistic, if anything a little too pessimistic, most people on the plant forums think that just about anything will grow in Houston or Orlando or Charleston. They are going to be in for a rude awakening one day. This streak of mild winters is the longest I can find on record, 1934-1947 is the next closest I can find. The period between the '51 and '62 freezes was similar to our current string of winters though obviously shorter (we missed the brunt of 1996)
Thanks for citing my old article

You're on the right track, there are lots of factors that come into play, in areas like deep South Texas or Central Florida it often won't take much cold at all to kill things, for various reasons, mostly because of the humid climate and a lack of hardening in those areas. But it was surprising how many palms withstood 6 degrees in 1989 in San Antonio. So it's not an automatic death sentence
I've got to admit your attitude is more realistic, if anything a little too pessimistic, most people on the plant forums think that just about anything will grow in Houston or Orlando or Charleston. They are going to be in for a rude awakening one day. This streak of mild winters is the longest I can find on record, 1934-1947 is the next closest I can find. The period between the '51 and '62 freezes was similar to our current string of winters though obviously shorter (we missed the brunt of 1996)
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Just looked at the 12Z run of the GFS and it shows the cold air rebuilding in the NW and ready to blast into the Plains by Jan. 10th. My prediction is that now through early January, we in Houston will see normal or above normal temperatures. I think any fronts that make it here over the next 10 days will only have the power to bring us down to normal or slightly below normal temps. By Mid January things change! I think temps. will average normal or below normal with fronts capable of brief periods of well below normal temps. I would expect at least 1-3 "threats" of arctic air and snow to occur during the latter part of next month, and I think there is a good shot one will verify. we will see though...still a good 1 1/2 - 2 weeks before we break this milder pattern.
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- AL Chili Pepper
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Just looked at the 12Z run of the GFS and it shows the cold air rebuilding in the NW and ready to blast into the Plains by Jan. 10th. My prediction is that now through early January, we in Houston will see normal or above normal temperatures. I think any fronts that make it here over the next 10 days will only have the power to bring us down to normal or slightly below normal temps. By Mid January things change! I think temps. will average normal or below normal with fronts capable of brief periods of well below normal temps. I would expect at least 1-3 "threats" of arctic air and snow to occur during the latter part of next month, and I think there is a good shot one will verify. we will see though...still a good 1 1/2 - 2 weeks before we break this milder pattern.
Maybe. I've been keeping an eye on that GFS and it's a teaser. Seems like it keeps bringing down cold air in the extended only to back off in later runs. This zonal flow is like the Bunny, it just keeps going and going. Warm in the west, warm in the east. I don't see any real polar outbreaks anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere really. Siberia's cold, but that's the only normal.
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- PTrackerLA
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Brent wrote:I'm afraid that the worst of winter is over... and it was actually in Late Fall.January looks normal(though some brief cold snaps are possible, I see no record shattering extended period of cold), and February looks WARM.
Wouldn't surprise me in the least. The trend over the past few years have been for the coldest winter weather to occur in December followed by normal/above normal temps thereafter. Guess we'll see what happens.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Calamity wrote:Brent wrote:I'm afraid that the worst of winter is over... and it was actually in Late Fall.January looks normal(though some brief cold snaps are possible, I see no record shattering extended period of cold), and February looks WARM.
I hope you’re talking about just Texas in particular.
I'm talking about the entire Deep South from TX eastward... it very well could be a lot warmer for the rest of the Country as well, though cold outbreaks and snow events would obviously be more likely.
Zonal flows suck.
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#neversummer
- Portastorm
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Brent wrote:Calamity wrote:Brent wrote:I'm afraid that the worst of winter is over... and it was actually in Late Fall.January looks normal(though some brief cold snaps are possible, I see no record shattering extended period of cold), and February looks WARM.
I hope you’re talking about just Texas in particular.
I'm talking about the entire Deep South from TX eastward... it very well could be a lot warmer for the rest of the Country as well, though cold outbreaks and snow events would obviously be more likely.
Zonal flows suck.
I wouldn't be so quick to cancel winter yet! Tonight's European suggests a cold air mass will impact the southern Plains after Day 7 (Jan. 2nd). JB in his evening discussion tonight also believes that the pattern will turn back to colder by mid month.
I just wish we could get some rain here in Texas. Our lawns look like toast. Burnt toast, that is!

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Portastorm wrote:JB in his evening discussion tonight also believes that the pattern will turn back to colder by mid month.
I'm still waiting for that Christmas Blizzard...



Anyway, I do think SOME cold snaps will occur(it is about to be January afterall), I just don't see a prolonged record cold event.
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#neversummer
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Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:JB in his evening discussion tonight also believes that the pattern will turn back to colder by mid month.
I'm still waiting for that Christmas Blizzard...![]()
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![]()
Anyway, I do think SOME cold snaps will occur(it is about to be January afterall), I just don't see a prolonged record cold event.
The Christmas Blizzard?

I would agree with you Brent about the prolonged record cold event. The references by others to 1989 and 1983 were ridiculous. Records are breaking here in Texas this week all right ... records for warmest high temps!
I'll be curious to see how the models pan out the next few days and whether or not the weather turns more seasonal.
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- cctxhurricanewatcher
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Portastorm wrote:Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:JB in his evening discussion tonight also believes that the pattern will turn back to colder by mid month.
I'm still waiting for that Christmas Blizzard...![]()
![]()
![]()
Anyway, I do think SOME cold snaps will occur(it is about to be January afterall), I just don't see a prolonged record cold event.
The Christmas Blizzard?Yeah ... you and me both!!
I would agree with you Brent about the prolonged record cold event. The references by others to 1989 and 1983 were ridiculous. Records are breaking here in Texas this week all right ... records for warmest high temps!
I'll be curious to see how the models pan out the next few days and whether or not the weather turns more seasonal.
I agree. I think I've listened to JB's last hype for this winter. When my plants are dying and the pipes are burting around town, then I'll know we are in another historic event. Till then, winter sure does feel like it's going to be canceled.
On another note, JB thinks it will be warmer than normal accross the nation till mid January. Perhaps he'll blow it the other way now?


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cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:On another note, JB thinks it will be warmer than normal accross the nation till mid January. Perhaps he'll blow it the other way now?![]()

I better stock up on supplies. It'll surely snow now.


Yep... we're expecting Mid 60's today, maybe 70 in the SW parts of the state with strong south winds and major warm air advection. The 7-day forecast show no below freezing temperatures and all above normal temperatures.

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#neversummer
- gboudx
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What is the criteria for "cancelling" winter? It sure doesn't feel like Winter around DFW these days. Warm and dry with on-going drought. Personally, I'd like to see temps get back into the 50/low 60's for Highs with some actual rain. Rain that is more frequent than once every 2-3 months. If we don't have another arctic blast, it won't bother me, but I wouldn't be disappointed if one or 2 more did occur.
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- CaptinCrunch
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gboudx wrote:What is the criteria for "cancelling" winter? It sure doesn't feel like Winter around DFW these days. Warm and dry with on-going drought. Personally, I'd like to see temps get back into the 50/low 60's for Highs with some actual rain. Rain that is more frequent than once every 2-3 months. If we don't have another arctic blast, it won't bother me, but I wouldn't be disappointed if one or 2 more did occur.
My old friend, don't worry to much about the warmer temps, by around the 3rd or 4th of January will should return to high's in the mid to lower 50's. This current wx pattern has botteled up all the cold air in canada, but that will soon change as a colder patteren takes shape, and by the 11th we shall have a repeat of the cold from mid December that should last thru the end of the month. As far as precip goes January may be dry with only 30% chances of precip as each storm system passes by.
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- WhiteShirt
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CaptinCrunch wrote:gboudx wrote:What is the criteria for "cancelling" winter? It sure doesn't feel like Winter around DFW these days. Warm and dry with on-going drought. Personally, I'd like to see temps get back into the 50/low 60's for Highs with some actual rain. Rain that is more frequent than once every 2-3 months. If we don't have another arctic blast, it won't bother me, but I wouldn't be disappointed if one or 2 more did occur.
My old friend, don't worry to much about the warmer temps, by around the 3rd or 4th of January will should return to high's in the mid to lower 50's. This current wx pattern has botteled up all the cold air in canada, but that will soon change as a colder patteren takes shape, and by the 11th we shall have a repeat of the cold from mid December that should last thru the end of the month. As far as precip goes January may be dry with only 30% chances of precip as each storm system passes by.
Will that spill down to the Houston area?
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I think that an Ice Age is immenent. Then it will snow a lot in Texas.
All it will take is one of those superstorms like in the day after tomorrow movie. And it will snow a lot all the way down to the Rio grande.
I base my forecast on gut feeling and on no scientific data. Besides, Hollywood is always right (or should I say left) when making a movie.
All it will take is one of those superstorms like in the day after tomorrow movie. And it will snow a lot all the way down to the Rio grande.
I base my forecast on gut feeling and on no scientific data. Besides, Hollywood is always right (or should I say left) when making a movie.
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