The Truth About Wind Strengths That MUST Be Heard...

[Margie]

Thanks for posting this thread.

Reviewing the post TC Katrina report and continuing an analysis of the wind and surge is very interesting, but it is very difficult to have a thread on the analysis -- a rational, positive thread where information can be shared and theories can be weighed -- when such postings are all immediately bashed by repeated "must have last word" posts that take offense to a rational discussion. These posts are disrespectful and rude, don't have any actual data to back up anything that is claimed, and somehow assume that providing valid identification of wind and surge levels in as scientific a way as possible is the same thing as invalidating the damage that occured, when the two things are unrelated.

My feeling is, that if you are angry and want to vent, fine, take it elsewhere, create your own thread, whatever, but don't get in the way of what could be an interesting meteorological discussion, if you can't contribute objectively.

I have gone through an education phase about what kind of damage can occur from different levels of hurricane strength and I don't get angry when I find out that I did not have a correct understanding of the facts; I adjust my thinking to take that in. I appreciate that a meteorologist who by definition has made a career out of understanding weather just might have a better handle on things than me (d'ya think?). There was a time period when I was completely angry about the way the coastal damage was ignored (and continues to be ignored) by the media, and that spilled over just a little bit into my perceptions in general, but I got over that real fast, and found several much more constructive things to do with my feelings (as those of you who have followed the MSNBC Rising from Ruin blog from the get-go are aware).

[BocaGirl]

In these intensity discussions, think we should be aware of the sloppiness of saying "Cat n winds" at all. Only a hurricane can be characterized by SS category, based solely on max sustained (measured or interpolated/estimated) winds. Winds aren't "Category" anything, if you get my drift.

SS categories are a very rough, over-simple way of categorizing hurricanes. Saying a place got "Cat n" winds leaves too much out. Only unambiguous way to discuss winds is "this location had 80k sustained winds for 10 minutes, with two 10-second peak gusts of 127 mph from the SW," say. And you can describe effects, say, "Something knocked the Aaron Rents Furniture store down and put a school bus on the Holiday Inn."

When it comes to damage, comparisons using SS scale are worse than misleading. Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall. Katrina wasn't. Katrina wiped out 100-year-old homes, caused the levee failures, scoured the MS coast, and had a horribly high death toll. Andrew left most of South Florida unscathed, but blocks and blocks were ground to splinters -- but some homes were cardboard crap. Andrew was tiny. Katrina was big. Andrew was flying. Jeanne was crawling. Wilma was followed by an intense cold front. Charley bombed and flew inland. Hugo caused major damage far from the SC coast. Mitch killed 10,000 with rain. Toradoes from Mitch in Key Largo, then "just a tropical storm," caused some of the worst damage I've seen in 20 years. Wilma's surge, 5 hours after the peak winds were past, wiped out nearly every dock and boat on Florida Bay. Katrina started fires. Dennis killed people with lightning and tornadoes. Floyd left the NC coast under water for weeks and months. Camille killed hundreds in Appalachia from flash floods. Some areas of NOLA and MS had bad wind damage from Katrina. Some roofs barely lost a shingle.

AND YOU ALSO SAID:

Moreso, might there be a 150 mph gust in a Cat. 1 hurricane? I wouldn't rule it out. Would it mean it wasn't a Cat 1? No. I don't believe that on this topic the "truth" matters because it probably isn't ever knowable, there could always be better measurements.

Yes, categories are (barely) important and max winds are (somewhat) important for understanding hurricanes and their effects. But there's no basis for determining a hurricane's SS category -- or what the winds were at any location -- except what is measured by reliable, calibrated instruments according to standards for wind speed measurement. Were the winds higher at your location than what the official measurements indicate? Could very well be.

Does it feel "better" to be wiped out by a category 4 than a category 2? I have no idea, thank goodness. Is it more exciting to go through a Category 3 than a category 1? Teenage weather nerds seem to think so. Mortgage payers not so much.

All of the above my opinion only. Only things that really matter to me are minimizing damage, loss of life, suffering in years to come, and I hope knowledge and communication help do that. And from all the discussion though the horrible 2004 and 2005 seasons, and living in Florida, I can only say I hope people take every category of tropical cyclone very very seriously.

Thank you Recurve. I have been trying to find the words to say exactly what what you said.

As someone who has gone through four hurricanes in two years, I can tell you that the Category assigned to each of those storms is basically meaningless. Unless we're playing Trivial Pursuit.

Wilma and Katrina both blew through South Florida in 2005. Both had Category 1 winds if we look at the books. Check out the sea of blue roofs during a drive down I-95 after Wilma. You'll know instantly that the storms were not equal. Wilma's Cat 1 winds did a whole lot more serious damage.

Or better still, visit my neighborhood in East Boca. Talk to the old-timers who have lived there since the late 60's and the early 70's when the homes were built. Check out the Wilma damage to the surrounding area. We still don't have street lights.....frankly whatever Wilma's official category is assigned she sure did a number on our area.

The 2004 and 2005 season taught me a few facts. Every storm has the potential to do terrible damage. Every storm has the potential to be a killer. Every storm could be the "big one".

If we stop being hung up on numbers - both before and after a storm blows through - and do our best to prepare for the worst case scenario, maybe the final number won't matter. Of course, insurance companies, FEMA and the news organizations will have to follow suit. Could they? Would they? I don't know.

To me, the bottom line is to stop focusing on the wind speed and intensity. It's not that I don't trust the official pronouncements, it's just that I care more about what I see in the aftermath.

After Wilma, someone on this board looked at a picture of a blown apart stop light and said something like, "Wind couldn't do that....something must have hit it." But wind DID shear that light pole in the photo and countless others in half. Hey, sometimes wind damage defies logic. It doesn't matter if that wind comes from a Cat 1, 2 or higher storm. The resulting damage matters. How much time and money it takes to repair the damage matters....in the end, the final storm Category does not.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[CajunMama]

Fantastic posts Recurve and BocaGirl. Both of your posts were well thought out and mature.

[cycloneye]

I second CM about Recurve and BocaGirl posts being great for this discussion.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well, I just have to reply to that post, Recurve.

That has got to be one of the BEST responses I've read on all the boards so far, taking nothing away from any of the other posters. Succinct, to the point, informed, eloquent, and most importantly, NOT spoken from a hubris of condescension that many find quite offensive.

Kudos on a fine response--and I agree with just about all of which you said.


A2K

[Margie]

the Category assigned to each of those storms is basically meaningless.

...the bottom line is to stop focusing on the wind speed and intensity.

BocaGirl
Barbara

The claim that science and meteorology are not valid doesn't work. This is a weather board. To say that scientific analysis is 'meaningless' and we shouldn't 'focus' on it here is untenable, and panders to the disruptive element.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for clarifying Audrey. You make good points and it's good to have many voices in the discussion.

In these intensity discussions, think we should be aware of the sloppiness of saying "Cat n winds" at all. Only a hurricane can be characterized by SS category, based solely on max sustained (measured or interpolated/estimated) winds. Winds aren't "Category" anything, if you get my drift.

SS categories are a very rough, over-simple way of categorizing hurricanes. Saying a place got "Cat n" winds leaves too much out. Only unambiguous way to discuss winds is "this location had 80k sustained winds for 10 minutes, with two 10-second peak gusts of 127 mph from the SW," say. And you can describe effects, say, "Something knocked the Aaron Rents Furniture store down and put a school bus on the Holiday Inn."

When it comes to damage, comparisons using SS scale are worse than misleading. Andrew was a Cat 5 at landfall. Katrina wasn't. Katrina wiped out 100-year-old homes, caused the levee failures, scoured the MS coast, and had a horribly high death toll. Andrew left most of South Florida unscathed, but blocks and blocks were ground to splinters -- but some homes were cardboard crap. Andrew was tiny. Katrina was big. Andrew was flying. Jeanne was crawling. Wilma was followed by an intense cold front. Charley bombed and flew inland. Hugo caused major damage far from the SC coast. Mitch killed 10,000 with rain. Toradoes from Mitch in Key Largo, then "just a tropical storm," caused some of the worst damage I've seen in 20 years. Wilma's surge, 5 hours after the peak winds were past, wiped out nearly every dock and boat on Florida Bay. Katrina started fires. Dennis killed people with lightning and tornadoes. Floyd left the NC coast under water for weeks and months. Camille killed hundreds in Appalachia from flash floods. Some areas of NOLA and MS had bad wind damage from Katrina. Some roofs barely lost a shingle.

So what category was Katrina? Whatever the NHC says. If you are sure it's wrong, then you don't get that their designation can't be "wrong" -- any more than they can assign the "wrong" name to a hurricane. Yeah, this is tautological, but these are designations, so the designee is whatever the designator designates.

Were they "wrong" about Andrew being a Cat 4? No. Andrew was a Cat 4 -- until they said it was a Cat 5, and then it was a Cat 5. It's just a number we use to discuss it, not what the instruments would say it was if there were an anemometer on every square meter of ground.

Moreso, might there be a 150 mph gust in a Cat. 1 hurricane? I wouldn't rule it out. Would it mean it wasn't a Cat 1? No. I don't believe that on this topic the "truth" matters because it probably isn't ever knowable, there could always be better measurements.

Yes, categories are (barely) important and max winds are (somewhat) important for understanding hurricanes and their effects. But there's no basis for determining a hurricane's SS category -- or what the winds were at any location -- except what is measured by reliable, calibrated instruments according to standards for wind speed measurement. Were the winds higher at your location than what the official measurements indicate? Could very well be.

Does it feel "better" to be wiped out by a category 4 than a category 2? I have no idea, thank goodness. Is it more exciting to go through a Category 3 than a category 1? Teenage weather nerds seem to think so. Mortgage payers not so much.

All of the above my opinion only. Only things that really matter to me are minimizing damage, loss of life, suffering in years to come, and I hope knowledge and communication help do that. And from all the discussion though the horrible 2004 and 2005 seasons, and living in Florida, I can only say I hope people take every category of tropical cyclone very very seriously.

Thank you Recurve. I have been trying to find the words to say exactly what what you said.

As someone who has gone through four hurricanes in two years, I can tell you that the Category assigned to each of those storms is basically meaningless. Unless we're playing Trivial Pursuit.

Wilma and Katrina both blew through South Florida in 2005. Both had Category 1 winds if we look at the books. Check out the sea of blue roofs during a drive down I-95 after Wilma. You'll know instantly that the storms were not equal. Wilma's Cat 1 winds did a whole lot more serious damage.

Or better still, visit my neighborhood in East Boca. Talk to the old-timers who have lived there since the late 60's and the early 70's when the homes were built. Check out the Wilma damage to the surrounding area. We still don't have street lights.....frankly whatever Wilma's official category is assigned she sure did a number on our area.

The 2004 and 2005 season taught me a few facts. Every storm has the potential to do terrible damage. Every storm has the potential to be a killer. Every storm could be the "big one".

If we stop being hung up on numbers - both before and after a storm blows through - and do our best to prepare for the worst case scenario, maybe the final number won't matter. Of course, insurance companies, FEMA and the news organizations will have to follow suit. Could they? Would they? I don't know.

To me, the bottom line is to stop focusing on the wind speed and intensity. It's not that I don't trust the official pronouncements, it's just that I care more about what I see in the aftermath.

After Wilma, someone on this board looked at a picture of a blown apart stop light and said something like, "Wind couldn't do that....something must have hit it." But wind DID shear that light pole in the photo and countless others in half. Hey, sometimes wind damage defies logic. It doesn't matter if that wind comes from a Cat 1, 2 or higher storm. The resulting damage matters. How much time and money it takes to repair the damage matters....in the end, the final storm Category does not.

BocaGirl
Barbara

Truly excellent posts, both of them! Very well-thought, without being unbiased. Very understanding and very detailed. They are also very informative... thanks to both of you for posting them!

Also, Audrey2Katrina, sorry if I sounded snobby and angry when trying to make my point. I'm also sorry if I was too unbiased or ignorant.

[Audrey2Katrina]

CapeVerdeWave:
No apologies needed whatsoever. Heck, it's human nature to get "angry" betimes, and to suggest otherwise would be, denial, or, well--ignorance--take your pick.

As far as bias is concerned, we all have our own pet-peeves and biases, again, not a big deal. Anyone who doesn't get there shackles up just a little bit when they feel (however misplaced or in error they may be in the heat of the moment) that something as near and dear to them as their home/city/state, is being trivialized, well, maybe they might want to relocate, or go to Vulcan and complete their Kolinahr. (Okay that was for whatever Trekkies might be out there). The fact is anyone in any area that experiences one of these monsters has acquired a memory they will take with them for the rest of their lives.

And for whatever else it's worth, there is nothing ignorant about what I've read--perhaps a bit of pride--hurt or otherwise--(as I'm sure you noted in mine as well) but ignorance just isn't there.

Anyway, I've droned on enough, this IS supposed to be about what we need to know about WIND.... well.... it can play HELL with one's life, I mean, let's face it, even with all the talk about the water--lets not forget that it's the wind that whips up those devastating surges!

Happy New Year to all!

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

take for example as well that in Gulfport they got winds 120-130 and it was enough to blow over a water tower

damage like that people would call out cat 5

[MiamiensisWx]

CapeVerdeWave:
No apologies needed whatsoever. Heck, it's human nature to get "angry" betimes, and to suggest otherwise would be, denial, or, well--ignorance--take your pick.

As far as bias is concerned, we all have our own pet-peeves and biases, again, not a big deal. Anyone who doesn't get there shackles up just a little bit when they feel (however misplaced or in error they may be in the heat of the moment) that something as near and dear to them as their home/city/state, is being trivialized, well, maybe they might want to relocate, or go to Vulcan and complete their Kolinahr. (Okay that was for whatever Trekkies might be out there). The fact is anyone in any area that experiences one of these monsters has acquired a memory they will take with them for the rest of their lives.

And for whatever else it's worth, there is nothing ignorant about what I've read--perhaps a bit of pride--hurt or otherwise--(as I'm sure you noted in mine as well) but ignorance just isn't there.

Anyway, I've droned on enough, this IS supposed to be about what we need to know about WIND.... well.... it can play HELL with one's life, I mean, let's face it, even with all the talk about the water--lets not forget that it's the wind that whips up those devastating surges!

Happy New Year to all!

A2K

Thank you very much, Audrey2Katrina. I've been stressed as well after this season and rather defensive on my opinions. Still, we all have to be thankful! Merry Christmas (hopefully you had one; if not, I'll wish you one even though it is over) and a nice New Year to you, too!

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, I just have to reply to that post, Recurve.

That has got to be one of the BEST responses I've read on all the boards so far, taking nothing away from any of the other posters. Succinct, to the point, informed, eloquent, and most importantly, NOT spoken from a hubris of condescension that many find quite offensive.

Kudos on a fine response--and I agree with just about all of which you said.


A2K

I agree. Excellent post, Recurve! Same to you, too, BocaGirl!

[jax]

Lately, I have seen the arguments going on and points presented in Audrey2Katrina's posts and, I have to say, I still disagree on what Audrey2Katrina is doing. Saying that New Orleans got Category Three sustained winds is just an insult to Wilma survivors (like myself and others) that went through Wilma in southern Florida. We are already acknowledging, like Derek Ortt validly presented in several (Audrey2Katrina, note that I am NOT saying "all" cases) cases, that we predominantly received Category One systained wind conditions, several brief spurts of sustained Category Two winds, and absolutely NO Category Three sustained winds whatsoever. We are also admitting this in this midst of destruction caused by Wilma in this terrible season.

I know that the experts don't know everything and that there are errors in the NHC report on Katrina, but saying things like WE know everything is not right, either. It is definately possible that southeastern Louisiana saw brief sustained Category Four winds in the eyewall, but this does not mean Katrina was a Category Four when it made landfall. Incredibly, while some people are almost arguing that Katrina was restrengthening or not weakening up until landfall, people are arguing in the face of data that Wilma was weakening before Florida landfall, when we have more data to prove that Wilma was strengthening before landfall. Amazing, isn't it?

Exalting windspeeds - without taking into consideration other factors - is a true insult to accurate measures of windspeeds, hurricane knowledge and preparedness, and to survivors of Wilma who are acknowledging just how powerful Category One and Category Two sustained winds are and that most areas that go through a storm do not experience the strongest winds.

it's almost as if you are trying to imply that Wilma was in some way worse... and more destructive than Katrina... Let's not take it personal if another area gets hit by the most destructive hurricane ever... no one wins or loses...

[terstorm1012]

Brilliant post Recurve.

In another thread not too long ago I mentioned that wind is capricious. It picks and chooses what it destroys. It bumps up against things, flows around them, forms eddys and calm spots, speeds through narrow spaces. . . Ever wonder why TV media people out in hurricanes never seem to be blown around? They're in eddys formed by large buildings or changes in topography. It adds a level of chaos---some neighborhoods might get lucky to be behind or in an eddy formed by who knows what and others might get smashed to pieces by the wind.

Like Recurve brilliantly said, the Categories are just rough guides.

Wind in a lot of ways is a lot like water. Look at a stream and how the water flows around the rocks in the stream. Wind is similar.

[MiamiensisWx]

it's almost as if you are trying to imply that Wilma was in some way worse... and more destructive than Katrina... Let's not take it personal if another area gets hit by the most destructive hurricane ever... no one wins or loses...

I am not, and I agree with you.

[vbhoutex]

Brilliant post Recurve.

In another thread not too long ago I mentioned that wind is capricious. It picks and chooses what it destroys. It bumps up against things, flows around them, forms eddys and calm spots, speeds through narrow spaces. . . Ever wonder why TV media people out in hurricanes never seem to be blown around? They're in eddys formed by large buildings or changes in topography. It adds a level of chaos---some neighborhoods might get lucky to be behind or in an eddy formed by who knows what and others might get smashed to pieces by the wind.

Like Recurve brilliantly said, the Categories are just rough guides.

Wind in a lot of ways is a lot like water. Look at a stream and how the water flows around the rocks in the stream. Wind is similar.

EXACTLY!!! The big difference between water and wind is that the water fills in everything, even in the eddy's while the wind literally can leave voids where there is little wind right next to where there is 130mph+ winds and thus the differences in the destruction caused(spotty by winds many times and pretty much total by water most times).

Recurve I couldn't have said it better if I had tried for years!! Thanks!!!

BocaGirl, as usual you come through with a great post too!!! Thanks!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Brilliant post Recurve.

In another thread not too long ago I mentioned that wind is capricious. It picks and chooses what it destroys. It bumps up against things, flows around them, forms eddys and calm spots, speeds through narrow spaces. . . Ever wonder why TV media people out in hurricanes never seem to be blown around? They're in eddys formed by large buildings or changes in topography. It adds a level of chaos---some neighborhoods might get lucky to be behind or in an eddy formed by who knows what and others might get smashed to pieces by the wind.

Like Recurve brilliantly said, the Categories are just rough guides.

Wind in a lot of ways is a lot like water. Look at a stream and how the water flows around the rocks in the stream. Wind is similar.

Excellent points!

[MiamiensisWx]

NOTICE - FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO DISCUSS WINDS AND OTHER IMPORTANT RELATED ASPECTS OF STORMS, THIS IS A VERY USEFUL THREAD WITH MANY EXCELLENT COMMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS. COME ON IN!

[MGC]

Wind and water are both fluids and behave in a simular manner. Water just happens to be a bit more dense then air. I did a little time in the Navy and was on the John F Kennedy (CV-67). In the short time I was on the Kennedy, a 80,000+ ton aircraft carrier, I was amazed at how the sea could toss around such a large ship. Even at anchor the ship would pivot into the wind, thus offering the least resistance. Winds in hurricanes tend to be streaky. One area will get hammered while another is left untouched. I've noticed this in many hurricanes including Katrina. What gets me is the way people tend to stick up for their area. It almost seems like a contest of who got the worst hurricane. The past couple of seasons it seems to be Florida against the rest of the country. I know while you are sitting in the heat with no electricity you are thinking how much this sucks. Having witnessed the damage in a many a hurricane, I don't think NO East got Cat-3 sustained winds. Cat-2 easy with gusts to Cat-4 sure. I'm pretty confident parts of the MS gulf coast got Cat-3 with gusts to Cat-5. I'm basing my observations upon witnessing the damage from some of the following hurricanes. Hilda, Betsy, Camille, Fredrick, Hugo, Frances, Jeanne, Ivan, Dennis and Katrina.......MGC

[robag]

This is one of the best topic discussions that I have seen here in a while. The teenagers and trollers appear to have left the board until the next big storm threatens. Kudos to Recurve for a very well thought out post. I remember the tornado outbreak in Key Largo because one went over my house. That was a very scary night for Key Largo as many of my friends suffered extensive damage to their homes. The Mitch induced tornado outbreak was in the middle of the worst severe weather squall line I have witnessed in Key Largo in 20 years. Key Largo is VERY overdue for a direct hurricane hit.

[EDR1222]

Some great points here. I agree with what Recurve was talking about. Each storm wreaks a lot of havoc in it's own way, such as the cold front interaction mentioned with Wilma and the extremely long duration of damaging winds from Jeanne and Frances and all that water associated with Floyd and of course Katrina.

I have learned so much from this forum, I wish I could apply what I have learned on some of these threads as college credits toward my degree!