Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#121 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:35 pm

45kts

WHXX01 KWBC 311832
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302005) ON 20051231 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051231 1800 060101 0600 060101 1800 060102 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 38.1W 25.7N 37.7W 25.8N 37.4W 25.7N 37.8W
BAMM 25.7N 38.1W 25.7N 39.1W 25.5N 40.2W 25.3N 41.4W
A98E 25.7N 38.1W 25.8N 38.3W 25.7N 38.9W 26.4N 39.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060102 1800 060103 1800 060104 1800 060105 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 38.3W 26.6N 38.3W 26.6N 40.0W 27.2N 40.9W
BAMM 25.1N 42.5W 24.7N 43.8W 24.1N 45.8W 26.0N 47.0W
A98E 26.9N 39.4W 27.9N 37.6W 28.0N 37.1W 26.5N 37.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.7N LONCUR = 38.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.7N LONM12 = 37.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 37.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 75NM

WindRunner · #122 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:55 pm

Down to 45kts now, but maybe a little convection burst over the center recently?

But dry air will make sure nothing happens unexpectedly.

#123 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:11 pm

Margie · #124 Postby **Margie** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:51 pm

It appears that Zeta is tilted vertically by the shear. The center of the LLC appears to be just exposed, but still connected to the small central area of convection which can also be seen to spin in tandem with it, just to the east. All the remaining convection is pushed to the NE, and most of the LLC is exposed. After a little WNW movement last night, it appears that Zeta is almost stationary. I think the lack of movement west has helped extend Zeta's lifetime a bit.

Last night you could see on the upper level wind diagram that the winds were diverging a bit just to the west of Zeta. This morning's discussion reads in part:

ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA.

I have a feeling that the remaining convection will go very quickly, as happened with Epsilon, as soon as the westerlies really hit, but with a strong well-organized low and mid level circulation, and continued convection being fueled by the shear, Zeta is hanging in there today.

Which will come first...the westerlies or the New Year? I'd assumed the westerlies, but, now, looking at the upper-level winds, especially around 300mb, it looks as though there is a possibility for the status quo to continue another 24 to 36 hours.

Convection at the center, though, has slowly diminished in intensity. Drier air than yesterday is surrounding the cyclone to its west and may be weakening the convection.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #125 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:59 pm

Margie wrote:It appears that Zeta is tilted vertically by the shear. The center of the LLC appears to be just exposed, but still connected to the small central area of convection which can also be seen to spin in tandem with it, just to the east. All the remaining convection is pushed to the NE, and most of the LLC is exposed. After a little WNW movement last night, it appears that Zeta is almost stationary. I think the lack of movement west has helped extend Zeta's lifetime a bit.

Last night you could see on the upper level wind diagram that the winds were diverging a bit just to the west of Zeta. This morning's discussion reads in part:

ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA.

I have a feeling that the remaining convection will go very quickly, as happened with Epsilon, as soon as the westerlies really hit, but with a strong well-organized low and mid level circulation, and continued convection being fueled by the shear, Zeta is hanging in there today.

Which will come first...the westerlies or the New Year? I think the convection will be gone by midnight, and the carriage will turn back into a pumpkin. Poof!

Good in depth analysis. Nice

MiamiensisWx · #126 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:01 pm

Margie · #127 Postby **Margie** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:03 pm

TBH -- I updated after looking at some more products.

CVW -- All these graphics are so funny - luv em.

whereverwx · #128 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:06 pm

Zeta looks like Arlene.... remember her, earlier this year?

MiamiensisWx · #129 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:06 pm

Thank you, Margie! HURAKAN's graphics are excellent, too!

Happy New Year to you, too, Margie!

MiamiensisWx · #130 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:07 pm

Calamity wrote:Zeta looks like Arlene.... remember her, earlier this year?

Yep. I agree... Zeta looks very similar to Arlene right now!

#131 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:10 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Calamity wrote:Zeta looks like Arlene.... remember her, earlier this year?

Yep. I agree... Zeta looks very similar to Arlene right now!

ya, i was with many others on pensacola beach watching arlene, funny thing is, cindy was worse for us and arlene hit us directly

MiamiensisWx · #132 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:10 pm

Zeta is looking very ragged right now. Who agrees? Check out infra-red and visible imagery on Zeta.

MiamiensisWx · #133 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:18 pm

Margie · #134 Postby **Margie** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:23 pm

Calamity wrote:Zeta looks like Arlene.... remember her, earlier this year?

That was before I started tracking hurricanes online (I started with Dennis). Anyone have a pic they can post?

Well if that's so, it's another nice symmetry to the season. It all seems so fated.

I'll say it...it's already trite and stupid, but I'll say it anyway, because we'll never get to say it again:

The 2005 Hurricane Season; everything from ARLENE to ZETA!

#135 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:28 pm

Arlene: 1st tropical system of 2005, hit Pensacola, FL

Margie · #136 Postby **Margie** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:36 pm

Well good grief that looks nothing like Zeta. I thought I was going to be seeing another storm with the LLC exposed. We've had plenty of those.

MiamiensisWx · #137 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:37 pm

Actually, Arlene looked like Zeta before it made landfall. Cindy looked a bit similar before landfall, too.

Margie · #138 Postby **Margie** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:39 pm

There it goes...convection at the center has broken up and is being pushed off. When it happens, it sure happens quick.

whereverwx · #139 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:41 pm

Even though Arlene may have had a bit more convection... most of it was displaced on the right side of the storm, like Zeta...

#140 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Dec 31, 2005 3:41 pm

Just got to stay tropical for another 3 hours and 19 minutes to carry over to 2006, should be able to do that I'd have thought.

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