MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 311832Z - 312330Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY ABOVE 7000-7500
   FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
   MAXIMA MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY INDICATE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FT
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRAS /NORTH 0F I-80/...WITH 7000-7500 FT OR
   HIGHER SNOW LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRAS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN
   RELATIVELY STEADY STATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS ATTRIBUTABLE TO
   MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT BEGIN LOWERING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   AS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH/COLD POCKET TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. IN
   PRESENCE OF DPVA/STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES/CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT
   /1.23 PW PER SPECIAL 15Z OAKLAND ROAB -- 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL/
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR OR
   GREATER...ESPECIALLY FOR W/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS
   INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   36661900 37351957 38552055 39292095 39342033 38401944
   37341858 36751833 36261818 36191832 36251869 36351883

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE SD/NE NEB INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 020038Z - 020445Z
   
   INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
   SCNTRL AND SE SD...NORTHEAST NEB...INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THIS
   EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF
   0.05 IN/HR...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
   
   ORGANIZED/ARCING DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS
   WRN/CNTRL SD...WCNTRL NEB...AND FAR NRN IA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS ERN KS. AS THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES THIS
   EVENING...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST AN E/SE
   EXTRAPOLATION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF
   PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR 850 MB MELTING
   LAYER LOCATED ABOVE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. POCKETS
   OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE
   SD INTO NE NEB/FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL
   FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43949364 43249337 42859570 42099722 41829843 42389995
   43450156 44270161 44710018 44109953 43739792

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 020121Z - 020615Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FT.
   
   PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS...STRONG PACIFIC UPPER
   JET/DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH
   THE NIGHT. EARLY EVENING MESONET OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE
   GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500-7000 FT...WITH
   PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LIKELY YIELDING LITTLE
   APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR
   WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COMMON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   38842024 38511964 37861902 36771808 36221793 36161828
   36671883 37421934 37991985 3837201239792

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021201Z - 021800Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2
   INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS WINTER
   WEATHER EVENT. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY
   LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVY SNOWFALL
   RATES.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   36081817 36771777 37261788 37751837 38191903 38281961
   37921990 37541970 37051924 36621894

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021907Z - 030000Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO W/SW FACING SLOPES ABOVE 6500-7000 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD NEAR THE
   CENTRAL CA COAST...WITH DRY SLOT ADVECTING NE ACROSS INTERIOR
   CENTRAL CA. ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS...LATEST MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 6500-7000 FT. DPVA AND
   OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH
   PW ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THE COPIOUS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   38712028 38561968 37221837 36241816 36251881 37191930
   37801992 38082027 38362038

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN CT...MUCH OF MA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 030547Z - 031145Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CT AND MUCH
   OF MA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR.
   
   MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT ORH AND IS EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS.  UPPER
   LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVING
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM MD AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT ULJ OVER
   ME.  COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW IN PROGRESS NEAR DOV WITH 4MB
   PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN DE IN THE 05Z SFC
   ANALYSIS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   CYCLONE AND UL SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA BY 07Z.
   
   AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR THIS
   TIME OF YEAR...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SUB ZERO LAYER WAS OBSERVED AT
   00Z IN OKX AND ALB SOUNDINGS WITH SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN
   LOWEST 50MB. OBSERVED SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS VERTICAL
   MOTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THREAT AREA COMBINED WITH SLIGHT
   INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS
   PRECIPITATION WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.
   
   ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...
   
   41827261 41637340 41737364 42067368 42357346 42477314
   42527275 42567233 42567178 42497139 42277117 42017129
   41857212

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT/EXTREME ERN ID/WY/NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 081808Z - 090015Z
   
   PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE BIG HORN MTNS. HRLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO
   2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.
   
   LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING INTO SCNTRL WY PER LATEST WV
   IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ID INTO SCNTRL
   WY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
   MODERATELY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL WY
   THIS AFTN.
   
   LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND RIVERTON WY RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW
   AN INCREASE IN SNOW FROM NW OF RIW TO CPR. THIS SUPPORTS
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 750-650MB LAYER FORECAST BY THE ETA.
   THE ETA AND GFS QPF SEEM TO DEPICT QPF THE BEST THIS AFTN...WITH
   HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE BIG HORNS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
   ACROSS THE TETONS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING...BUT MODERATE TO
   HEAVY RATES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITH
   ISOLD LTG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES.
   IN ADDITION...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
   WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   HIGHER PASSES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   42120862 42611201 44971319 45920715 44270539 42960450
   42040562

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CASCADES OF WESTERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 091221Z - 091615Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE 3000 TO 3500 FEET LEVEL FOR
   MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CASCADES OF WRN WA. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
   SLOWLY RISE WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
   WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ACROSS WA INTO SW CANADA.
   THE MOISTURE PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF A 60 KT SWLY
   JET AT THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
   MTNS DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE
   RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE ACROSS THE
   CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING
   CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD RISE FROM THE 3000 TO 3500 FOOT
   LEVEL TO THE 4000 TO 4500 FOOT LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   48792066 48032042 46582083 45862128 45732200 46162260
   47692228 48662197 48892152

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN
   MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 100630Z - 101130Z
   
   BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY
   AT TIMES WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS INTO
   NERN OK/SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE RAIN
   IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SWRN
   AND CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 08-11Z. A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHERE THE STRONGEST
   ELEVATED WAA WILL EXIST.
   
   LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
   ZONE WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK AS BACKING 500 MB
   FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED AT LAMONT AND WICHITA...WHILE VEERING MID
   LEVEL FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT VICI AND DODGE CITY. RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATES THAT SEVERAL SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE
   SNOWFALL AT TIMES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
   PRIMARY BANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS.
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR AGGREGATION IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT
   ALONG WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
   REGION...MODERATE TO STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-W
   ORIENTED MODERATE PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN INTO
   CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING
   ACROSS THIS AREA...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES
   APPROACHING FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNU TO SGF BY 09Z. THUS A
   CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
   THE AREA BY 09Z. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA...AN ELEVATED WARM
   LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO VIH. IN THIS
   REGION...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
   TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FROM 09-12Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   38699216 38609421 38129595 37599749 36929830 36439861
   36099823 36229728 36439629 36689539 37019348 37309182
   38419114

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 101232Z - 101630Z
   
   PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK...SE KS
   AND WRN MO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER AR WITH AN INVERTED
   TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS SW MO INTO SE KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
   MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
   MAX NEAR 700 MB. ACROSS SW MO...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S F
   AND SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
   PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
   OVER OK DRIFTS ENEWD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS SHOULD BE NORTH AND
   NORTHWEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR TULSA AND SHOULD
   SHIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
   INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. SNOWFALL SHOULD
   GRADUALLY LIGHTEN ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
   WRAP PRECIPITATION SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS WRN MO.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   38109567 38799420 39259259 38889165 38129146 37319237
   36549427 36119588 36429662 37419669

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WA...NRN ID...NW MT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 101304Z - 101700Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS OF WA...NRN ID AND NW
   MT TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY
   WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS MAINLY ABOVE THE 3500 TO 4000 FOOT LEVEL.
   
   
   WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POCKET OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD
   ACROSS ERN WA...NRN ID AND NW MT WITH A SECONDARY PLUME OF MOISTURE
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN ORE AND SRN WA. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NNW TO SSE...LOCATED JUST WEST OF
   THE CASCADES WITH A 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WA AND ORE. AS
   THE LEFT EXIT REGIN OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION
   ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. AS A
   RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH
   THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4000
   FEET IN THE CASCADES AND ABOUT 3000 FEET IN THE BITTEROOTS. SNOW
   LEVELS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
   SNOWFALL HEAVIEST ABOVE 400O FEET.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
   
   46881575 47371625 47931760 47941893 47651990 46952061
   46222118 46552216 47962179 48962019 48881654 48171488
   47331428 46791478

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 110033Z - 110530Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID
   THIS EVENING...WITH 2 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE
   5500-6000 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
   TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT
   INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF ID. 00Z BOISE RAOB AND
   LOCAL WSR-88D VWP ALREADY FEATURES MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 50 KTS
   OR GREATER ABOVE 4 KM...WITH 0.66 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND
   200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ REPRESENTATIVE OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO IN
   ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z BOISE RAOB...MESONET OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY
   DEPICT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500-6000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE LITTLE TONIGHT AMIDST THE
   PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST FACING SLOPES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...
   
   44981670 44831536 44071431 43401404 43231483 43451548
   44051590 44501634 44681672

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 110548Z - 110945Z
   
   LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION
   BETWEEN 08-12Z. HRLY AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.02-0.04 IN.
   
   MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
   ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER
   SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS UPPER
   LOW...CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL IL AT 06Z...MOVES ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL
   IND BY 12Z...THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
   NRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
   FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELY
   WINDS ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHOULD SUPPORT
   LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
   FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   44888408 44708581 44308629 43608646 43458635 43458477
   43758395 44368334 44718333

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 111835Z - 112330Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR
   PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME BETWEEN 21-00Z.
   
   LATEST MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED INLAND
   OVER SRN ME...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON
   COUNTIES.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
   INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 20S...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 32F
   THROUGH 00Z.  ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RATHER DRY AIR MASS
   ACROSS ME...CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/N
   OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
   OF THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN MOISTENING.
   THIS LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
   SURFACE AND MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 850-950 MB TO SUPPORT A PTYPE FOR
   FREEZING RAIN.
   
   LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER SERN ONTARIO TO FAR SRN QUEBEC IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO NRN ME LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATES
   UP TO 0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   45666763 45366887 45617064 46627018 47536922 47316777

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / EXTREME NWRN IN
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 131803Z - 132300Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 19Z INTO
   FAR NERN IL...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00
   IN/HR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
   WARM...SOME ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
   RATES.
   
   DEEPENING LOW WILL COOL COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR RAIN OVER FAR NERN IL
   TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY ABOUT 19Z. HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PERSIST OVER NERN
   IL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HRLY RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 16-17Z INDICATE
   UP TO 0.12 IN POSSIBLE PER HR...WITH 0.05-0.08 IN GENERAL. THIS
   SHOULD CORRESPOND TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 0.50 - 1.00 IN/HR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...
   
   41958724 40898755 40238813 39888842 39878902 40038940
   40678930 41618876 42098835 42318799 42378737

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS
   
   VALID 150615Z - 151215Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
   OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
   THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR
   EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE
   COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO
   BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN
   NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
   
   LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE
   TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING
   UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN
   ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION
   OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN
   ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
   
   SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST
   BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
   THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
   TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME.
   FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED
   AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
   SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE
   TOWARD EARLY MORNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
   
   38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251
   40227310 38457496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   
   VALID 170851Z - 171445Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LWR MI THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE ACROSS
   CNTRL AND PARTS OF NCNTRL LWR MI WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
   PER HOUR PSBL. SLEET PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
   LWR MI.
   
   CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI THIS
   MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS
   MN.  LARGE WARM CONVEYOR WAS TRANSPORTING LOW/MID-LEVEL MSTR NWD
   INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
   LK MI AND SRN LWR MI SINCE 06Z.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE INCREASING/MOVE NWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   MID-MORNING.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
   DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. BUT...THE COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN
   RAPIDLY AS STRONGER UVV SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS AT LEAST THE
   WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING. 
   
   06Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
   ABOVE 0 DEGREE C OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NRN MI BY 15Z.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WET-BULBING WILL MAINTAIN BELOW
   FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI.
   ONLY FAR NWRN LWR MI WILL SEE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO
   SUPPORT A SLEET MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER UVV.  MAINLY
   SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NW ACROSS UPPER MI.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   43598381 43298415 43358471 43738554 44328594 44698575
   45148497 45298443 44708409

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 180122Z - 180515Z
   
   PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THROUGH 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   BROAD WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF
   UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IS LEADING TO EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO PA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
   NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
   LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS
   SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT/EPISODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
   PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
   THIS EVENING. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE MELTING LAYER ABOVE
   MAINTENENCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATER THIS
   EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
   INDUCE A SWITCH-OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN NY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   44287588 44737465 44077362 42947348 42017406 41707431
   41537481 41367563 41377630 41337756 41507795 41867812
   42537792 42717774 42967729 43407630 43787601

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE RANGE INTO
   SRN ORE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 180813Z - 181415Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WEST FACING
   SLOPES OF THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE SRN ORE CASCADE RANGE.
   SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE AT
   TIMES TO 2500 FEET IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS.
   
   LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WAS
   BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ONSHORE WRN ORE AND NWRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET.  CONSIDERABLE OPEN CELL TYPE CLOUDS
   ATTEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE N OF THE
   CYCLONIC JET.  IN FACT...NLDN/OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/OFFSHORE. 
   
   WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MID-MORNING...
   WITH STRONG...MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
   NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND SRN ORE CASCADES. CIRA SATL BLENDED TPW STILL
   SUGGESTS AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT. 
   
   SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO 2500-3000 FEET...BUT
   COULD DIP TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVY SNOW BURSTS.  HEAVIEST
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND BE CENTERED MAINLY
   ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY CA NWD INTO THE SRN ORE
   CASCADES.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...EKA...
   
   41402372 41972363 42292285 42512267 43032236 43442224
   43392201 42902207 42202220 41392220 40922306 40972352

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE
   WASATCH RANGE IN UT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 180937Z - 181530Z
   
   LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
   THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE
   IN UT NORTH OF ABOUT I-80.  LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH
   1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   IR-SATL SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS A SWATH FROM NRN NV
   INTO SRN ID....ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE.  A STRONG
   UPPER LEVEL JET WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE
   CA/ORE TROUGH...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ASCENT.  RESULTANT
   ENHANCED H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS LIKELY THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
   THE INCREASING PCPN RATES.
   
   PCPN RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
   AS STRONGER MOIST WLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS
   TO SINK SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  RAWS SITES SUGGEST THAT THE
   09Z SNOW LEVELS...RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN ERN ID/TETONS TO 7000
   FEET IN THE UT WASATCH RANGE...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. BY
   MID-DAY...SNOW LEVELS IN THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL RANGE FROM 3500 FEET
   IN THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID AND THE TETONS TO 5000 FEET IN THE
   WASATCH RANGE NORTH OF I-80.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...
   
   42021074 41521072 41101125 40751178 40881184 40951186
   41371191 41531178 41851179 42171180 42381189 42361225
   42421252 42811244 43071196 43491161 44001082 42911065