MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 250302Z - 250430Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THEY TRACK
   TO THE ENE REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE FROM
   WALTON/BAY COUNTIES BETWEEN 03-05Z...AND TO AROUND AAF MAINLY AFTER
   05Z.  LIMITED THREAT AREA AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.
   
   02Z SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW OFFSHORE S OF MOB WITH A
   COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD OFFSHORE ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   TO INLAND N OF AAF...AND THEN OFFSHORE AGAIN ESE OF FRANKLIN COUNTY.
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF STORMS 1) INLAND
   ACROSS SRN AL TO FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND 2) STRONGER STORMS
   EXTENDING SSWWD FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF WALTON COUNTY AT 0245Z.  THIS
   LATTER LINE OF STORMS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER INSTABILITY
   LOCATED OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS TROUGH...NOW
   LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THE LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
   OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/KINEMATICS...DESPITE MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST...A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
   TO PRODUCE NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO AS ACTIVITY
   REACHES THE COASTAL AREAS OF WALTON TO GULF/FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...
   
   30388632 30598579 30488485 29848449 29628484 29518516
   29718563

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 250637Z - 250830Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED...
   
   STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
   THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE NERN GULF
   OF MEXICO...INTO GA.  DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OBSERVED
   INLAND...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS PROVING VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUSTAINING ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE HIGHER QUALITY AIRMASS JUST OFF THE FL
   COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO MOVE INLAND. ANY
   INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER LAND WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR ANY INCREASE IN
   INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30338572 31478488 31438160 29818139 29248474

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL/MUCH OF GA/W CENTRAL SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 898...
   
   VALID 282019Z - 282215Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW -- PARTICULARLY
   NEAR AND E OF THE AL/GA BORDER.  WITH SEVERAL SUPERCELLS NOW ONGOING
   ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL GA MOVING EWD...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED
   SHORTLY E OF CURRENT WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS
   ERN AL AND INTO GA...AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  THOUGH NO
   TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED THUS FAR...LOW-LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS
   EVIDENT IN SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 
   
   DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER WW
   AREA...CONTRIBUTING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE WITHIN AND JUST
   S OF WW.  INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS GA...AS SLY
   SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SOMEWHAT MORE ORIENTED OUT OF THE FL PENINSULA
   ARE MAINTAINING LOWER /MID 50S/ DEWPOINTS. 
   
   NONETHELESS...AS REGION OF UVV EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN AL/WRN
   GA /LIKELY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET/ MOVES EWD WITH
   TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO ALSO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE GA COAST/WRN SC.
   THOUGH SLOW WEAKENING TREND APPEARS LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO
   LESS UNSTABLE AIR...INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...WITH A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO EXTEND E OF WW...NEW WW IS BEING
   CONSIDERED FOR ERN GA AND VICINITY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 12/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   33538591 33868512 33808163 32388126 30678194 30718479
   31728688 32448671

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2598
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN AND CNTRL SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899...
   
   VALID 282258Z - 290030Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 899 OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXPAND NEWD INTO CNTRL SC
   AS STRONG CELLS DRIFT NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN GA
   EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER ERN US TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE NEWD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE LARGE CLUSTER OF
   STORMS OVER GA AND SRN SC TO EXPAND NWD. SFC DEWPOINTS DROP OFF
   QUICKLY FROM THE MID 50S F INTO THE 40S F EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. AS
   THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA...LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE NEWD AND
   ENCOUNTER THE WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN SC.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   33777980 33207991 32048119 31248234 31468310 32128337
   33438212 34238108 34208025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 291829Z - 300030Z
   
   A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LOCALLY PRECEEDED BY MIXED
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
   NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES
   APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR.
   
   A UPPER LEVEL STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL PROGRESS
   EASTWARD AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO PRODUCE DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT OVER THE THREAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG 800-700 MB
   LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IN RUC FCST ALSO HELPS FOCUS ASCENT NEAR ND...SD
   BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AT 14Z... 105 KNOT WINDS AT 9KM WERE OBSERVED AT THE PLATTEVILLE CO
   WIND PROFILER AS THE JET STREAK AXIS SLID EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
   SITUATION IS COMPLICATED BY A WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
   EVIDENT IN WV AND RUC ANALYSES OVER SW SD CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHERN ND. BOTH RUC AND SREF APPEAR TO HAVE
   A POOR HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE.
   
   MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS IS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
   NEBRASKA AND EASTERN WY AND MT WITH GPS PW OF NEARLY THREE QUARTER
   INCH CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR CDR EARLIER TODAY. RUC AND NCEP SREF
   AGREE THAT LOCALIZED INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE...IN
   PARTICULAR LATE IN THE PERIOD. TYPICAL POLAR AIRMASS IS ABSENT
   ACROSS THE EASTERN US SO COOLING OF THE LAYER THROUGH DEEP ASCENT
   AND EVAPORATION WILL BE NECESSARY IN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA
   BEFORE THE ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE PRESENCE OF THE POORLY
   HANDLED LEAD SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH OBSERVED MODERATE RAIN WITH
   ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURE AT MBG SD AT 18Z SHIFTED FOCUS OF WINTER
   PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BUT CONFIRMS POTENTIAL FOR INCH AN
   HOUR RATES IN SNOW AREAS. 12Z ABR SOUNDING HAD ONLY A SHALLOW
   ABSOLUTELY STABLE LAYER WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO
   DESPITE 150MB DEEP LAYER WITH A DRY BULB TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING.
   MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM
   FREEZING RAIN TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY SNOW OVER NORTHEAST
   SD BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES WILL SPREAD FROM
   WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE THEAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..SCHNEIDER.. 12/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   45980223 46640089 46709924 46209760 45419681 43999689
   45099843 45559949 45510117

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SRN MN...NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 300008Z - 300415Z
   
   A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD AND
   GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS SE SD...SRN MN AND NRN IA.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN
   SD AND WRN NEB WITH A DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE EXPANDING EWD
   ACROSS ERN SD AND NE NEB. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT
   QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOWN ON
   THE SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION EXTENDING EWD FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA SHOW AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM
   900 TO 800 MB. AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EWD TONIGHT THIS WARM LAYER WILL
   ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
   ISOLATED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE WRAP AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MID-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EWD INTO SE SD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA OF
   HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHOULD DRIFT EWD INTO SRN MN AND NRN IA DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   42689337 42759776 43299893 43989893 44699749 44759354
   44239166 43159141

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NORTH DAKOTA...NE SOUTH DAKOTA...WEST CNTRL
   MINNESOTA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 300017Z - 300615Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
   DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
   
   A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
   AREA...COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET AND DECENT UPPER
   DIVERGENCE...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS AND HEAVY
   SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EVENING.  MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAJOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PART OF THE REGION.  ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND NAM...WHICH ARE IN
   FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SOME LOCALLY TRANSIENT SLEET AND FREEZING
   RAIN...ALONG WITH SNOW...WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
   REGION.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY
   MORNING.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 12/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46900166 47170041 47209857 47209689 47049542 46209494
   45659583 45369703 45269839 45300057 45680171

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OREGON INTO EXTREME SWRN ID
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 300540Z - 301145Z
   
   MDT TO HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 09Z MAINLY OVER
   NERN OREGON...WITH 1.50-2.00 IN/HR SNOW RATES POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE
   REGION AND 1.00 IN/HR POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW WILL THEN
   SHIFT EWD TOWARD 12Z INTO SWRN ID WHERE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND HEAVY
   WET SNOW APPEAR LIKELY INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
   
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS ERN
   OREGON AS SWLY FLOW BRINGS IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT.
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS FIELDS WILL INCREASE AS ZONE OF
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MATERIALIZES NEAR LEADING EDGE OF WARM/MOIST
   ADVECTION ALOFT. LIFTING ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ALONG A NW-SE AXIS
   FROM THE MTNS OF NERN OREGON INTO FAR SWRN ID BY 12Z. RUC AND NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION CENTERED AROUND
   550-500 MB LAYER WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
   LAYER FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. THIS...COMBINED WITH SATURATED AND
   SUB-ZERO PROFILES IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AND SURFACE WET BULB ZERO
   TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
   RATES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE
   UPSLOPE. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE LOWER TREASURE
   VALLEY...BUT COULD CHANGE TO HVY WET SNOW DURING HEAVIEST
   PRECIPITATION RATE PERIOD...WHICH WILL GENERALLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...
   
   44081904 44981929 45581858 45641758 45581746 45201696
   44941673 44301665 43871676 43321698 43291819 43641860

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SRN AND CNTRL MN...NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 300545Z - 300945Z
   
   AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN SD...SRN AND CNTRL MN
   AND NRN IA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN
   1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
   CNTRL DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB WITH
   A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS WRN IA AND SERN SD. STRONG LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
   OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN MN...ERN SD AND NW IA SHOW
   THAT THE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER
   HAS COOLED BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT...SNOW WILL BE
   THE FAVORED MODE OF PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING
   RAIN AND/OR SLEET WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
   CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
   SNOWBANDS SHOULD BE ACROSS SE SD...FAR NRN IA AND SRN MN WHERE THE
   STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE LOCATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 12/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
   
   42759727 43359805 44569811 45459724 45639572 45579387
   44959255 43969202 42919279 42569537 42609557

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SACRAMENTO VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311755Z - 312000Z
   
   ...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
   
   
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER CVA IS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE
   TOWARD THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.  MUCH DRIER MID
   LEVELS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
   HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO
   REACH THE LOWER 60S.  UPSTREAM...LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS
   STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...7C/KM...AND 3KM CAPE...IN EXCESS
   OF 100J/KG...WILL SPREAD INTO THE VALLEY ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR
   ROBUST CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...BACKED VALLEY FLOW SHOULD PROVE
   BENEFICIAL FOR SUSTAINING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AIDING
   STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  HAIL IS THE MOST
   LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
   IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...
   
   37662145 40252294 40862202 39452091 38192011

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 311832Z - 312330Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY ABOVE 7000-7500
   FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY
   MAXIMA MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY INDICATE SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FT
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRAS /NORTH 0F I-80/...WITH 7000-7500 FT OR
   HIGHER SNOW LEVELS PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRAS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN
   RELATIVELY STEADY STATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS ATTRIBUTABLE TO
   MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT BEGIN LOWERING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   AS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH/COLD POCKET TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. IN
   PRESENCE OF DPVA/STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES/CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT
   /1.23 PW PER SPECIAL 15Z OAKLAND ROAB -- 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL/
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR OR
   GREATER...ESPECIALLY FOR W/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS
   INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   36661900 37351957 38552055 39292095 39342033 38401944
   37341858 36751833 36261818 36191832 36251869 36351883

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LA/SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011936Z - 012100Z

MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED OVER ERN LA/SRN MS -- THOUGH DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
TO BE HINDERED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION
PER LATEST WSR-88D VWPS...WHICH SHOW FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AND
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT YIELDING STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STORM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF
BVE -- WITHIN A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE/RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
ENVIRONMENT -- IS NOW EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT PER LATEST
WV IMAGERY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SRN
AL/WRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIMITED HAIL THREAT
WILL LIKELY EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED/WARM ADVECTION STORMS MOVING NNEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL GA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS VORT MAX/DRY
SLOT CONTINUES EWD.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND ASSOCIATED LOW LCLS WOULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL ALONG WITH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO.

..GOSS.. 01/01/2006

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE SD/NE NEB INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 020038Z - 020445Z
   
   INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
   SCNTRL AND SE SD...NORTHEAST NEB...INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THIS
   EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF
   0.05 IN/HR...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
   
   ORGANIZED/ARCING DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS
   WRN/CNTRL SD...WCNTRL NEB...AND FAR NRN IA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS ERN KS. AS THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES THIS
   EVENING...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST AN E/SE
   EXTRAPOLATION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF
   PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR 850 MB MELTING
   LAYER LOCATED ABOVE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. POCKETS
   OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE
   SD INTO NE NEB/FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL
   FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43949364 43249337 42859570 42099722 41829843 42389995
   43450156 44270161 44710018 44109953 43739792

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 020121Z - 020615Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FT.
   
   PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS...STRONG PACIFIC UPPER
   JET/DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH
   THE NIGHT. EARLY EVENING MESONET OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE
   GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500-7000 FT...WITH
   PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LIKELY YIELDING LITTLE
   APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR
   WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COMMON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   38842024 38511964 37861902 36771808 36221793 36161828
   36671883 37421934 37991985 3837201239792

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020155Z - 020400Z
   
   PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY AFTER 04Z. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED
   FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH NRN MS INTO
   NRN AR...SWRN MO TO A SURFACE LOW IN SERN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM
   NERN TX THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM
   FRONT. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
   CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH OK. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
   STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
   INTO CNTRL AND NRN AR AND SRN MO LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE EVENING
   FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO EXTREME NRN AR WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT
   WEAKER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER. CAP INCREASES FARTHER SWD
   INTO AR...AND THIS MAY LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY
   BECOME CLOSE TO SURFACE BASED IF THEY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO...BUT SHOULD
   INITIALLY BE ELEVATED FARTHER NWD INTO MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS MORE STABLE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36189345 37939340 38259168 37078970 35968987 34889100

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0826 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
   
   VALID 020226Z - 020430Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS
   MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF WW 001.
   
   THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH SRN MS NWWD
   INTO N CNTRL MS. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
   RETURN NWWD WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
   60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS
   FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH SRN AL NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL
   GA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD
   SHORTWAVE HAS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY ONGOING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
   INITIATE NEW STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN FARTHER WEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF WW 001
   THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31168339 30768402 30318597 30298752 31758743 31988567
   31818438 31778393 32048319

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 020725Z - 020900Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS
   CENTRAL INTO ERN MO AND WRN IL.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS HAD RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MO ALONG/EAST OF
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW ENTERED WRN MO.  DESPITE WEAK
   INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS MO...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
   AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE
   KS/MO BORDER SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -20 C AT
   500 MB/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE
   MORNING AHEAD OF EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   38969346 40119318 40289128 40218998 39268938 38028930
   37409006 37169094 37359221

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN/FAR SERN MO/WRN KY/SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...
   
   VALID 020901Z - 021000Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 002 FROM SERN MO
   INTO WRN KY THROUGH 12Z.
   
   08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN MO
   WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND THEN
   ACROSS AL TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
   EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR TO NERN TX.  LATEST
   SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   INCLUDING STORMS OVER FAR NERN PART OF WW 002 AND EXTENDING FROM THE
   OH VALLEY SSEWD TO SERN STATES IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF WAA
   ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT.
   
   TO THE WEST OF THIS WAA REGIME...AIR MASS IS CAPPED AS INDICATED
   WITH THE 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT JAN...THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF DEEP CONVECTION.  STRONGEST FORCING ATTM AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD IL AIDING IN THE ONGOING
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WW 003.  AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   TRANSLATE EWD...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SRN
   EXTENT OF CURRENT MO/IL ACTIVITY SSEWD INTO NRN PART OF WW 002
   TOWARD 12Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   34219108 35889096 37248973 37888894 37818680 35568728
   33688827 33669027

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN AND SRN IL/SERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...
   
   VALID 021031Z - 021130Z
   
   PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN WW 003.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD INTO CENTRAL
   MO TO THE NNW OF COU...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO THE N OF
   STL AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO WRN KY.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MO ALONG/E OF SURFACE
   LOW AND ATTENDANT DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD INTO CENTRAL AR.
   STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL HELICITY /0-3 KM SRH RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2/ WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
   
   PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN/SRN IL.  HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE
   CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND SERN IA TO
   THE NORTH OF WW 003.  LIMITED INSTABILITY N OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT
   ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   36549113 37809157 38369240 38679274 39889238 41129289
   41099129 40618925 40108840 38528767 37928807 37458945
   36539025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021201Z - 021800Z
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2
   INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS WINTER
   WEATHER EVENT. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY
   LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVY SNOWFALL
   RATES.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   36081817 36771777 37261788 37751837 38191903 38281961
   37921990 37541970 37051924 36621894