MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NRN FL/SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021245Z - 021315Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.
   
   12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA WWD
   INTO SERN AL...AND THEN NNWWD ACROSS AL.  RICH MOISTURE RESIDES
   ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   AROUND 70 F...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THIS
   REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH/BHM SUGGEST LITTLE SURFACE HEATING IS REQUIRED
   /SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TLH/ FOR STORMS TO
   BECOME SURFACE BASED.  THUS...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   SOON FOR SERN GA...FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...
   
   30168748 31358665 31558447 31748252 31158198 30088257
   29868412 29508519

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST CENTRAL IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...
   
   VALID 021314Z - 021345Z
   
   NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST
   CENTRAL IND.
   
   AT 12Z...SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   OVER NERN MO WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM FAR ERN
   MO INTO CENTRAL AR.  MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E THEN SE
   FROM THE SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD WITH
   MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IL. AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD THIS MORNING
   INTO WRN IND.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM
   TAZEWELL COUNTY IL SWD TO BOLLINGER COUNTY MO. STRONG AND DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT/SHEAR OVERSPREADING IL/IND ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS
   EXPECTED TO AID IN MAINTAINING ONGOING LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE
   MORNING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   37519013 38758989 39969044 40418997 40608863 40548692
   38748658 38568846 38208941

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/FAR NERN
   AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...
   
   VALID 021357Z - 021530Z
   
   PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS
   VALID PART OF WW 004.
   
   LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NEW THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING INTO FAR
   NERN AR.  AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF STORMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
   DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS.
   
   09Z RUC AND 00Z WRF-NMM4 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE INTO PARTS OF
   WRN TN THIS MORNING.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS
   WRN TN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW
   LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   35039067 36588993 37918980 38558868 38638696 35128685

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021547Z - 021715Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD
STREETS/HORIZONTAL ROLLS HAVE DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
NERN QUARTER OF AL. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO THE W OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM W OF RMG TO E OF ANB TO AUO AND THEN SEWD INTO SWRN
GA NEAR ABY. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BHM SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.

DESPITE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF FORECAST
STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY CROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED OR WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AND MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN AND
W-CNTRL GA.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...
   
   VALID 021621Z - 021745Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #6 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE
   EASTERN TWO TIERS OF ECNTRL/SE IL COUNTIES INTO WCNTRL INDIANA. WILL
   MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL
   INDIANA.
   
   LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL AT AROUND 35
   KTS LATE THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CHAMPAIGN-MATTOON TO
   BETWEEN SALEM/LAWRENCEVILLE AT 1615Z. RELATIVELY MOST INTENSE STORMS
   WERE ONGOING ACROSS JASPER/RICHLAND/EDWARDS COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WW 6 IN WCNTRL INDIANA BY
   AROUND 18Z.
   
   COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXISTING BREAKS IN
   CLOUDS/GRADUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO
   CONTINUAL/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
   PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER
   BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE-EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A
   FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   40188807 40628661 39838545 38728534 38268611 38668822

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021643Z - 021815Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AS OF 1635Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND
   FROM W OF VDI TO E OF ABY TO SW OF PFN.  DESPITE SOME MIXING OUT OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AIR MASS E OF THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WW 0005
   HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN
   GA...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION.  CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING
   AND POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPSTREAM 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST.  GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON
   CURRENT VWPS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEARS OF 45-55 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   31878301 32208274 32428218 32148159 31478112 30708140
   29898130 29498150 29488218 29588254 29818304

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021711Z - 021845Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   AS OF 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG
   COLD FRONT FROM HENRY COUNTY SWD TO MADISON COUNTY IN WRN TN.
   COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60F HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
   TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  LOCAL VWPS AND
   PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BECOME LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL OWING TO VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  MOREOVER...OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES A
   CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF ANVIL LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS.
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD
   AROUND MID MS VALLEY UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MS WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW STILL IN SWRN QUADRANT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER
   THE ARKLATEX.  INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SWD INTO FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL.
   
   
   GIVEN THE MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
   LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT
   THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH WEAKENING ANVIL-LEVEL SHEAR
   AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
   MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35268848 36618796 36618496 34368575 34408881

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN/CNTRL IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021730Z - 021900Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND
   AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.  A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   AS OF 1720Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONGLY-FORCED
   CONVECTIVE LINE FROM E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN TN WITH A GENERAL EWD
   MOTION OF 20-25 KTS.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ADVECTION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE
   MS RIVER SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   BACKING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACHING OF THIS LOW
   IS RESULTING IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGELY A
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS MODESTLY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ ACROSS
   INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   36658764 39588756 39548481 36598498

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021828Z - 022000Z
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS SEEN IN EARLIER 12Z DAVENPORT IA AND
   LINCOLN IL RAOBS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION AHEAD OF STACKED LOW ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER. ADJUSTED RUC
   SOUNDINGS DEPICT MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...WITH PARCELS GENERALLY
   BASED AT 900 MB OR HIGHER. WHILE AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-35 KTS/
   INITIALLY EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/HAIL PRODUCTION OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
   WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN APPROACH OF STACKED LOW. EXPERIMENTAL
   SPC HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1 INCH HAILSTONES
   INTO MID AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   40288670 41658684 42358609 42198414 41278378 40408395

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 021907Z - 030000Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO W/SW FACING SLOPES ABOVE 6500-7000 FT.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD NEAR THE
   CENTRAL CA COAST...WITH DRY SLOT ADVECTING NE ACROSS INTERIOR
   CENTRAL CA. ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS...LATEST MESONET
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 6500-7000 FT. DPVA AND
   OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH
   PW ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THE COPIOUS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
   
   38712028 38561968 37221837 36241816 36251881 37191930
   37801992 38082027 38362038

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND INTO CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...
   
   VALID 022053Z - 022230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 007.  AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z WITH MORE ISOLATED
   STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KY. 
   
   AS OF 2035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   LINE FROM N OF LAF IN NWRN IND TO SE OF BWG IN S-CNTRL KY.  STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE
   WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   
   OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS JUST TO THE E OF MAIN
   CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL KY. HERE...MORE LOCALIZED FORCING AND
   SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES RECENTLY REPORTED IN HARDIN AND BULLITT
   COUNTIES.  EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DIMINISH
   WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR AS THESE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
   OVERTAKEN BY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   AS STORMS MOVE INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABILE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH
   SWD INTO ERN KY.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND E
   OF WW 007 IN KY AND AN ADDITIONAL...SMALL WW MAY BE NEED SOON.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   36638692 40258731 40048483 36598483

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL INTO WRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022120Z - 022245Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO.  A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS
   DEEPENING FROM W OF ATL TO NE OF MGM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL.  LATEST SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM RMG TO W OF ATL TO S OF
   MCN.  AIR MASS TO THE W OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
   WITH WWD EXTENT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S FROM BHM TO MGM.
   HOWEVER...OVER FAR ERN AL INTO WRN GA...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS ACROSS THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THIS BOUNDARY /AS SAMPLED
   BY FFC VWP WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS 100-200 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS MATURE PRIOR TO CROSSING
   BAROCLINIC ZONE.  ONCE STORMS MOVE E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD
   TEND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34648545 34748488 33548392 33198402 32538469 32228529
   32398583 32718620 33968629

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...
   
   VALID 022149Z - 022315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SRN PORTION OF WW
   008 AREA...AND PERHAPS E OF WW TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE.
   
   AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG
   TSTMS FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 S OF TLH TO 40 NNE CTY WITH A ENEWD
   STORM MOTION OF 30-35 KTS.  DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING...AIR
   MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  MOREOVER...JACKSONVILLE VWP INDICATES 0-1 KM SRH OF
   150-200 M2/S2 WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. 
   
   GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29398466 30108388 30448304 30458175 30238139 29938133
   29518212 29158350

[TexasStooge]

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RED FLAG WARNING...RETRANSMITTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CST MON JAN 2 2006

.ONE DRY AND WINDY STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
THIS EVENING WHILE THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO BE CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING. VERY DRY...VERY WARM AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD OVER
THE REGION.

OKZ014>017-021>023-033>038-TXZ083>089-030530-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0001.060103T1700Z-060104T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.W.0003.060103T1700Z-060104T0200Z/
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-HARMON-
GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
326 PM CST MON JAN 2 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY HELP CREWS CONTAIN
ONGOING FIRES. HOWEVER...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER WARM...DRY...AND WINDY STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. NIGHTFALL
WILL HELP EASE THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY...BUT WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

IF A WILDFIRE ESCAPES AN INITIAL ATTACK... RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY FOR A SAFE ZONE. IN TEXAS... MAYORS AND OR
COUNTY JUDGES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO DEMAND MANDATORY EVACUATION.
PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IN THIS DANGEROUS SITUATION.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN GA THROUGH SWRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
   
   VALID 022316Z - 030045Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS E CNTRL
   GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO ERN GA AND
   PARTS OF WRN SC. WW MAY BE NEEDED E OF WW 10 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS E CNTRL GA.
   ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WITHIN
   ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF
   UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
   AXIS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
   AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NC SWWD THROUGH
   WRN SC. STRATUS DECK PERSISTS S OF WEDGE FRONT IN WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TOWARD WRN SC. THIS
   COULD POSE A LIMITING FACTOR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. NEVERTHELESS
   A MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN
   THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 10.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...
   
   33228322 33918296 33878248 33878207 33858158 32798151
   32288293

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/NE TN/FAR SW WV/FAR WRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...
   
   VALID 030129Z - 030300Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH #11 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...BUT IT
   APPEARS THREAT MAY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION
   TIME.
   
   AN ISOLATED SHORT-TERM SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT REMAINS ACROSS FAR SE
   KY INTO EXTREME SW WV/WRN VA AND NE TN...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERTICAL SHEAR
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE/STORM ORGANIZATION -- ESPECIALLY
   WITH SOUTH EXTENT PER AREA WSR-88D VADS -- HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY
   LAYER/DIMINISHING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE DETRIMENTAL
   FACTORS IN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   37998232 38068184 37638160 36928205 35758253 35608282
   35618347 35628404 36258411 36608392

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...
   
   VALID 030222Z - 030345Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...
   DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM E CNTRL GA
   INTO SRN SC NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HIGHEST SHORT TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL
   APPEARS TO BE WITH SUPERCELL ON SRN END OF LINE OVER E CNTRL GA.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SRN SC AROUND 03Z.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM CNTRL SC SWWD INTO E CNTRL GA CONTINUES EWD.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/CVA ACCOMPANYING A
   VORT MAX THAT IS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN GA.
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN SC IS
   LESS UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAY HELP
   ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO SRN SC NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WITH ANY STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE
   LINE WHERE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW IS ORIGINATING FROM HIGHER THETA-E
   AIR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...
   
   32688182 32968149 32658081 32268096 32308166

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030321Z - 030515Z
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO MAY
   BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS
   ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.
   
   STORMS HAVE INCREASED FROM NERN SC INTO ERN NC WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING A VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
   TROUGH. THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE
   SURFACE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF
   STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
   OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS
   WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
   STORMS...SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID
   LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
   
   35117680 33817930 34928025 35987763

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN CT...MUCH OF MA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 030547Z - 031145Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CT AND MUCH
   OF MA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR.
   
   MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT ORH AND IS EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS.  UPPER
   LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVING
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM MD AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT ULJ OVER
   ME.  COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW IN PROGRESS NEAR DOV WITH 4MB
   PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN DE IN THE 05Z SFC
   ANALYSIS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   CYCLONE AND UL SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA BY 07Z.
   
   AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR THIS
   TIME OF YEAR...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SUB ZERO LAYER WAS OBSERVED AT
   00Z IN OKX AND ALB SOUNDINGS WITH SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN
   LOWEST 50MB. OBSERVED SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS VERTICAL
   MOTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THREAT AREA COMBINED WITH SLIGHT
   INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS
   PRECIPITATION WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.
   
   ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...
   
   41827261 41637340 41737364 42067368 42357346 42477314
   42527275 42567233 42567178 42497139 42277117 42017129
   41857212

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT/EXTREME ERN ID/WY/NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 081808Z - 090015Z
   
   PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE BIG HORN MTNS. HRLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO
   2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.
   
   LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING INTO SCNTRL WY PER LATEST WV
   IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ID INTO SCNTRL
   WY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
   MODERATELY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL WY
   THIS AFTN.
   
   LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND RIVERTON WY RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW
   AN INCREASE IN SNOW FROM NW OF RIW TO CPR. THIS SUPPORTS
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 750-650MB LAYER FORECAST BY THE ETA.
   THE ETA AND GFS QPF SEEM TO DEPICT QPF THE BEST THIS AFTN...WITH
   HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE BIG HORNS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW
   ACROSS THE TETONS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING...BUT MODERATE TO
   HEAVY RATES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITH
   ISOLD LTG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES.
   IN ADDITION...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
   WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   HIGHER PASSES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   42120862 42611201 44971319 45920715 44270539 42960450
   42040562