Subtropical origin cyclones tend to be much more tenacious because
they are born with a lower SST threshold and cold-core characteristics
possibly partially baroclinic characteristics that allow them to
survive in shear and SST conditions to an extent that may be
partially unfavorable to inherent warm-core origin cyclones.
Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...
Above is Avilas header for 10 PM EST.Another humorous moment from .him
Above is Avilas header for 10 PM EST.Another humorous moment from .him
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Margie
Well that forecast was a bit of a disappointment. While it is clear that Zeta is strengthening at the core, vis, IR, and WV all show the convection is already being eaten away from the west. This appears to be happening at a different level than the outflow (probably at a lower level). While the stronger core will offer some better protection, I still think that the shear is shortly going to be making even further inroads into the convection.
However that does not mean that I think Zeta is done. There is still the possibility Zeta will get past the trough. We have seen that these hybrids can survive with very little assoc convection.
This last was especially disappointing, considering the length of time that Zeta has been in the intensifying phase:
ALL I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.
Update:
OK thankfully I got some help on this one from a very talented met.
The shear did enhance the convection.
The trough is coming apart, weakening in the southern end. It appeared so on IR imagery earlier this evng but I didn't know enough about these features to tell for certain. But this I did not get: a weak upper low that probably formed off the bottom of the trough is possibly sheltering Zeta. The southward movement did save it for now, because it steered into the area of the trough that is fracturing, and westerlies are still likely to get to the convection, but it is less clear exactly when this will occur, and it may not occur until the next front reaches Zeta.
However that does not mean that I think Zeta is done. There is still the possibility Zeta will get past the trough. We have seen that these hybrids can survive with very little assoc convection.
This last was especially disappointing, considering the length of time that Zeta has been in the intensifying phase:
ALL I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.
Update:
OK thankfully I got some help on this one from a very talented met.
The shear did enhance the convection.
The trough is coming apart, weakening in the southern end. It appeared so on IR imagery earlier this evng but I didn't know enough about these features to tell for certain. But this I did not get: a weak upper low that probably formed off the bottom of the trough is possibly sheltering Zeta. The southward movement did save it for now, because it steered into the area of the trough that is fracturing, and westerlies are still likely to get to the convection, but it is less clear exactly when this will occur, and it may not occur until the next front reaches Zeta.
Last edited by Margie on Tue Jan 03, 2006 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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thunderchief
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The amazing events of the 2005 season have spilled over to 2006. This is just crazy but Zeta is nearing hurricane strength! The eyewall is forming tonight against all odds. Will Alberto form next month????? One does wonder after all we have seen.
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