Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

[Astro_man92]

"gasp" I think the trough is going to miss it. If it does miss Zeta will the next one get it or will or just continue south. BTW it it get to the cape verde islands might it potentialy come over for a visit here??

[thunderchief]

The outflow looks excellent and the cloud tops are relatively cool... and with decent symmetry as well. Anyone else think this looks like a minimal hurricane now?

[Astro_man92]

Well I certainly do

[JamesFromMaine2]

yeah but must be a tired Hurricane since it has its eye closed! lol any new models out since 10?

[JamesFromMaine2]

Breaking NEWS:
55kts and 995mb pressure according to the navy site!

20060103.0615.goes12.x.ir1km.30LZETA.55kts-995mb-234N-412W.jpg

[JamesFromMaine2]

03/0545 UTC 23.3N 41.3W T3.0/3.5 ZETA -- Atlantic Ocean

[mtm4319]

55 knots...

660
WHXX01 KWBC 030641
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060103 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060103 0600 060103 1800 060104 0600 060104 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 41.2W 24.1N 40.4W 24.5N 40.3W 24.3N 40.8W
BAMM 23.4N 41.2W 23.4N 41.8W 23.3N 42.5W 23.1N 43.8W
A98E 23.4N 41.2W 23.4N 41.5W 23.4N 41.8W 23.2N 42.1W
LBAR 23.4N 41.2W 23.7N 40.7W 24.5N 39.9W 25.5N 39.5W
SHIP 55KTS 50KTS 39KTS 25KTS
DSHP 55KTS 50KTS 39KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060105 0600 060106 0600 060107 0600 060108 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 40.9W 24.9N 39.3W 23.4N 40.7W 19.4N 46.0W
BAMM 23.6N 45.0W 26.1N 46.4W 25.4N 49.0W 26.5N 54.1W
A98E 24.2N 42.6W 25.3N 41.6W 25.7N 41.7W 22.2N 42.6W
LBAR 26.7N 39.4W 30.0N 39.2W 31.2N 36.3W 29.8N 33.9W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 41.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 40.8W DIRM12 = 241DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 24.4N LONM24 = 39.7W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 100NM

[Astro_man92]

55kts = hurricane???

[Brent]

55kts = hurricane???

No. 65 mph. 65 kt is a hurricane.

[Margie]

Zeta has almost made it through the weakness that developed this evening in the trough. The outflow to the north continues to be enhanced by the westelies, which are just to the north of Zeta, and moving to the NE following what is left of the trough. Zeta will now be able to maintain its current intensity, or to strengthen slightly, most likely just to hurricane strength, under an area of lower shear, until the westerlies hit.

I believe the GFDL originally had it going just south and missing the trough but that wasn't what happened; the lower part of the trough fell apart.

The shear from the trough is continuing to enhance the convection and outflow (and to provide air with more moisture).

[Coredesat]

VERY INTERESTING DISCUSSION:

WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE
DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE. NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER
FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

As of right now, 2005's ACE is 242, against the 1950 season's record of 243.



I hope the officials don't cut off the ACE tally at January 1st.

[senorpepr]

As of right now, 2005's ACE is 242, against the 1950 season's record of 243.



I hope the officials don't cut off the ACE tally at January 1st.

Alice2 in 1954-55 went solely to 1954's ACE figure.

[senorpepr]

Here's an update...

Assuming all of Zeta's data will go toward 2005 since all of Alice #2's data (1954-1955) went toward the 1954 ACE...

Through 03/09Z, Zeta's ACE is 3.4825 x 10^4.

This makes 2005's total ACE 242.0049 x 10^4. The record is 243.

This means if Zeta can maintain until tomorrow morning... the record will be broken.

[Cookiely]

Here's an update...

Assuming all of Zeta's data will go toward 2005 since all of Alice #2's data (1954-1955) went toward the 1954 ACE...

Through 03/09Z, Zeta's ACE is 3.4825 x 10^4.

This makes 2005's total ACE 242.0049 x 10^4. The record is 243.

This means if Zeta can maintain until tomorrow morning... the record will be broken.

Come on Zeta and hang on. What are the odds of seeing another Zeta storm in my lifetime? Zilch, nada, it ain't gonna happen. Incredible season.

[JamesFromMaine2]

heres the first morning Visible!

[JamesFromMaine2]

I could be wrong but I think Zeta is developing a pinhole eye. on the latest IR image theres a area of lighter convection surrounded by deeper convection and looking on the navy site its in the same location as the eyewall thats developing!

[P.K.]

6amGMT GFDL

WHXX04 KWBC 031117
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ZETA 30L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JAN 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.3 41.2 240./ 2.9
6 23.1 41.3 191./ 2.5
12 23.4 41.3 345./ 2.8
18 23.4 41.7 271./ 3.7
24 23.4 42.3 276./ 5.4
30 23.6 43.0 283./ 6.7
36 23.8 43.8 285./ 7.0
42 24.2 44.2 318./ 5.8
48 24.9 44.6 323./ 7.4
54 25.8 44.9 343./ 9.7
60 27.0 44.8 5./12.6
66 28.0 44.7 8./ 9.1
72 28.8 44.3 20./ 9.3
78 29.4 43.8 40./ 7.3
84 29.7 43.4 57./ 4.8
90 29.6 43.2 111./ 2.0
96 29.2 43.5 216./ 4.6
102 28.7 44.3 236./ 8.6
108 28.3 45.7 254./13.3
114 28.3 47.3 269./14.5
120 28.9 49.0 292./15.9
126 30.4 49.9 328./16.4

[JamesFromMaine2]

well we have atleast a 60kt Tropical storm maybe even a 65kt Hurricane right now! On the latest windsat theres way to many 60kt+ readings for it to be bad data!