Code: Select all
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005
.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3500-5000 FT. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR THAT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
TEMPORARY BREAKS EXPECTED. NONETHELESS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY RISING THIS MORNING...AND THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADJUST HOURLY
DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND GRIDS. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
65/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 050 HAVE MOVED INTO ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE CIGS
TO REMAIN IN THE 040-050 RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. /13
&&
.DISCUSSION...
408 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION JUST
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF WILL LIKELY BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
POPS WILL BE USED. LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA...SO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT
FROM NW TO SE. WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LIGHT FREEZING FOG OVER THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY WED-THU AS SW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM ADVECTION. NEXT TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH AND WILL KEEP JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF 20 POPS FOR THE EXTREME
EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.