Snow worldwide

[x-y-no]

This is pure nonsense. I saw a lot of the development of the AGW hypothesis first hand. The people I knew who were involved in most of the basic research typically got their funding from NSF or Navy. Each and every one I have known personally has in my experience been cautios and scrupulously honest. No doubt there are exceptions, but that's the whole point of peer-review - to weed out the dishonest and the incompetent.

Put "Maurice Strong" as an exact phrase into Google with Kyoto. You'll be shocked at the lack of quality of people you're working with.

What does Kyoto have to do with climate science research?

[terstorm1012]

I think Steve's argument about GW making climate more extreme is getting lost. He made a very excellent point.

GW doesn't mean Palms will grow in MA (though there ARE species of Palm Trees that CAN grow in MA if you're patient and have that kind of time). It means the shifts in seasons become more extreme.

[x-y-no]

I think Steve's argument about GW making climate more extreme is getting lost. He made a very excellent point.

GW doesn't mean Palms will grow in MA (though there ARE species of Palm Trees that CAN grow in MA if you're patient and have that kind of time). It means the shifts in seasons become more extreme.

Yes, and also more energy in the system can drive more energetic dynamics, potentially leading to greater average amplitude of the atmospheric Rossby waves.

That's at least intuitively reasonable, although I'm not aware of what level of modelling support there may be for this idea.

[JBG]

I think Steve's argument about GW making climate more extreme is getting lost. He made a very excellent point.

GW doesn't mean Palms will grow in MA (though there ARE species of Palm Trees that CAN grow in MA if you're patient and have that kind of time). It means the shifts in seasons become more extreme.

Ah yes. And NYC's coldest temperature ever was February 9, 1934; hottest July 9, 1936. I guess things are getting more extreme all the tiem.

[x-y-no]

I think Steve's argument about GW making climate more extreme is getting lost. He made a very excellent point.

GW doesn't mean Palms will grow in MA (though there ARE species of Palm Trees that CAN grow in MA if you're patient and have that kind of time). It means the shifts in seasons become more extreme.

Ah yes. And NYC's coldest temperature ever was February 9, 1934; hottest July 9, 1936. I guess things are getting more extreme all the tiem.

For the Nth time ... a trend in global average does not in any way preclude uncorrelated local or even regional extremes. The hypothesis in the quote above is simply that a higher total energy in the system might lead to more variable weather (i.e. more frequent extremes). As I said in my earlier reply, this is a reasonable hypothesis but not one reliably supported by modeliing as far as I'm aware.

[Aslkahuna]

I'm not sure that the current Global Climate Models have a spatial or temporal resolution to resolve that though my son might know. Beyond that, let me return briefly to the issue of our civilization vs climate. Our civlization is about 8000 years old if I recall what I ave read in the past correctly. During that time period, Earth's climate has been remarkably stable given its chaotic past. As for what even a minor climate shift can do, look at the Little Ice Age or even closer to the current time-the after effects of Tambora in 1815-18 when the Global Cooling lead to major crop failures, famine and mass migrations. If it could happen then think what could happen now with our more delicately balanced social structure.

Steve

[JBG]

As for what even a minor climate shift can do, look at the Little Ice Age or even closer to the current time-the after effects of Tambora in 1815-18 when the Global Cooling lead to major crop failures, famine and mass migrations. If it could happen then think what could happen now with our more delicately balanced social structure.

Steve

And somehow, politically feasible reductions in GSG would change the possibility of that happening? How?

[x-y-no]

As for what even a minor climate shift can do, look at the Little Ice Age or even closer to the current time-the after effects of Tambora in 1815-18 when the Global Cooling lead to major crop failures, famine and mass migrations. If it could happen then think what could happen now with our more delicately balanced social structure.

Steve

And somehow, politically feasible reductions in GSG would change the possibility of that happening? How?

If this were a political board, we could perhaps discuss the costs and benefits and political feasability of transitioning away from dependence on fossil carbon. But it's not - it's a weather/climate/science board with an explicit "no politics" policy.

But given what we know of the likely consequences over the next multiple centuries of ignoring the problem and doing nothing to mitigate it, I think it behooves us to seek to do the best we can (bounded by those pragmatic limits) to make that transition rapidly. There is much practical technology now which can go a fair way to accomplishing that.

For instance, the U.S.DOE estimates that there are more than 900,000 MW of potential wind energy off the coasts of the United States, in many cases, relatively near major population centers. This amount approaches the total current installed U.S. electrical capacity. Estimated cost of power produced by such installations is between 8 and 12 cents per kilowatt hour - quite competetive with current power costs in coastal urban areas. So maybe we should move ahead rapidly to do this.

There are other examples of promising tecnnologies, and there are benefits as well as costs involved in all technologies, including fossil fuels.

[Aslkahuna]

I'm paying more than 12¢/kWh for my electricity here in SV so 8-12¢ would be cheaper. The electric Company in Tucson, though most of its power comes from fossil fuels, also utilizes Methane from the nearby landfill and Solar Power for the production of some of its power-FHU is considering a wind farm.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Clearly there are natural variations to account for-the current overall high levels of Solar activity (long term) since the 1940's is estimated to account for up to 30% of the observed warming. Of the remaining 70%, at face value
human activity accounts for more than 50% of it and quite likely more.

Steve

I think the 30 % accountability is questionable Steve since we still do not now about the GCR effect upon stratocumulus cloud formation. This could change the percentage considerably. Especially when you consider the possible albedo feedback effect upon ozone levels. When you change this you can change everything.

I'm all for doing things but it really bothers me about at how little is known about the space weather effect upon our climate system. Research dollars should be pouring in here at the same rate as the GW dollars. And it's not.

A good deal of the past research has been done in Eastern Europe. Just look at most of the authors and institutions. It is shameful how the scientific mainstream has hijacked most of the research dollars.


Jim

[kenl01]

I found another article for snow in Saudi Arabia. Should be accurate (unless later info suggests otherwise) since it originated from the state run news agency, and since there was snow there in 2002. I think it's going to be our turn soon with the NAO expected to tank negative (according to the GFS ensembles) after Jan 10th and a blocking pattern becoming re-established. So a pattern change towards colder appears imminent in the US with the PJ now heading back north into west Canada with ridging redeveloping out there. It is going to get cold as troughing becomes established downstream once again.

Snow in Saudi Arabia - 30 Dec 05 - This information, the website says, came from the official state-run news agency Spa.
It also snowed in northern Saudi Arabia in 2002, the first time in 40 years.
http://news.ert.gr/en/newsDetails.asp?id=13970

[kenl01]

Ice rink collapses beneath snow - 3 Jan 06 - At least 11 people were killed
and 18 injured by a collapsed ice rink roof in Bad Reichenhall , Germany . Heavy snowfall clogged roads and delayed the arrival of heavy equipment used to move wreckage.

Loud creaking had been heard just before the accident. Bad Reichenhall, a town of some 15,000 people, is on the border with Austria and about six miles from the city of Salzburg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10596709/

[P.K.]

That has been on the news for a couple of days, not looking good there at all. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4579566.stm

[Aslkahuna]

Apparently a paper being published in the Journal Nature has some interesting observational results from studies done on a warming event 55 million years ago which had pronounced influences on Ocean Currents. Interesting in light of recent reports concerning the Gulf Stream.

Steve

[kenl01]

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/01/0 ... 7id4u.html

Big freeze to sweep over China

China, already enduring its coldest winter in 20 years, is preparing for a cold snap that will see temperatures drop by as much as 16 degrees Centigrade (29 degrees Fahrenheit).

Northern China, where temperatures are already as low as minus 15-20 degrees Celsius, will feel the strongest effects of the cold front, which is sweeping in from Mongolia and western Siberia, the China Daily reported.

In the capital of Beijing, which enjoyed a relatively warm start to the New Year with temperatures just above freezing, the thermometer is expected to plunge 10 degrees on Monday night, according to the paper.

The Beijing News advised the city's residents to return home from New Year holidays early on Monday to avoid expected overnight snowfalls.

Even in the warmer southern regions, the temperatures are expected to drop sharply.

"Upon the heels of the cold front ... more snowfall can be expected in the north with rain or snow flurries possible in the south," the paper quoted Yang Guiming, a senior official with the Central Meteorological Office, as saying.

Wang Bangzhong, a deputy director with the China Meteorological Administration, said temperatures across China had already been 1.5 degrees lower than the historical average throughout December.

"China is experiencing the coldest winter in 20 years," Wang told the paper.

He said three more successive "winter freezes" were expected to affect China during January, usually the coldest month of the year.

Historic cold snap in Hong Kong - 24 Dec 05 - Hong Kong has had frost
in its coldest winter weather in 20 years, say Hong Kong Observatory officials.
http://english.bna.bh/newsadmin/printable.php?ID=39096


Try to argue with that - you won't be able to. And try to say anything AT ALL about the other articles that the snow or cold didn't happen - it won't do any good because the snow and cold has already happened ! We have allot of subversive elements (including the horrible media) in this country, and they are ALL wrong. By now, I'm so convinced it's getting colder and snowier that whenever I hear or see anything in the media, I automatically know it's the opposite of what they are reporting. Yeaugh, just like those people in the mines that were supposed to be alive - that was totally wrong. The same false reporting goes for the climate business - what people are not hearing in this country is snow and cold that is not reported or under reported, and the rest is all BS lies being spit out by the hot air climate lobby running off your tax money for a huge agenda - to increase the size of government. That's all there's to it.

And of course, since the Pacific jet-stream returned to the USA around Dec.20th, some will think "my gosh - winter is over already - it must be GW..etc...etc" Nothing to do with any of it. Just a pattern shift after a very cold first 3 weeks of December, when snow extent in the US was greater than it normally is in late January. Right now, the other side is catching arctic air and lots of snow. We'll get our turn again as soon as the block returns to Greenland and the coldest air moves back to our side of the pole. After a mild start, chances are a colder pattern returns after mid month.

[Aslkahuna]

It's only the coldest winter to date in Beijing in 20 years so that's not really a siginificant departure. Heck, I've even seen cases where it has snowed in Hong Kong and even Taiwan and the northern Philippines in the past so what's happening is not extreme. Now if they were to see things happening that have never shown up in the record keeping (remember the Chinese were great observers and record keepers of natural events) going back to the earliest Dynasties some 5000+ years ago then maybe you would have a case if they were extreme cold events but I've seen no claims of this happening.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Try to argue with that - you won't be able to. And try to say anything AT ALL about the other articles that the snow or cold didn't happen - it won't do any good because the snow and cold has already happened !

Why would anyone feel a need to deny any of this? It's not at all inconsistant with anthropogenic global warming.

I would have posted some of the articles I've seen over the last few weeks where other regions like Australia are experiencing record warmth, but that's just as irellevant to the global average as your examples are and I didn't want to confuse the issue by lending some legitimacy to the idea that local or regional extremes considered in isolation either counter or support the evidence for global warming.

We have allot of subversive elements (including the horrible media) in this country, and they are ALL wrong. By now, I'm so convinced it's getting colder and snowier that whenever I hear or see anything in the media, I automatically know it's the opposite of what they are reporting. Yeaugh, just like those people in the mines that were supposed to be alive - that was totally wrong. The same false reporting goes for the climate business - what people are not hearing in this country is snow and cold that is not reported or under reported, and the rest is all BS lies being spit out by the hot air climate lobby running off your tax money for a huge agenda - to increase the size of government. That's all there's to it.

Hang on - I think I've got a spare tin-foil hat laying around somewhere I can give you.

And of course, since the Pacific jet-stream returned to the USA around Dec.20th, some will think "my gosh - winter is over already - it must be GW..etc...etc" Nothing to do with any of it. Just a pattern shift after a very cold first 3 weeks of December, when snow extent in the US was greater than it normally is in late January. Right now, the other side is catching arctic air and lots of snow. We'll get our turn again as soon as the block returns to Greenland and the coldest air moves back to our side of the pole. After a mild start, chances are a colder pattern returns after mid month.

You're the one bringing this up. Have you seen the people you are conversing with in this thread make such an argument? No, you haven't.

Raising an argument others haven't made just to knock it down is called a "straw man" - and it's a classic example of an illegitimate debate method.

The interesting thing is that you seem to understand that regional warm spells don't indicate anything WRT global warming, but you don't seem to understand that regional cold spells have the same limitation. I wouldn't want to accuse you of deliberately biasing your argument, so perhaps you can offer some other explanation for this disparity?

[jasons2k]

13 feet in Japan:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsart ... N-SNOW.xml

[terstorm1012]

Not to start an argument but I have a hard time believing that the "climate lobby" would even be successful given the current administration and its associated Congress has shown a marked hostility to anything Global Warming, manmade and/or natural. I just wanted to post my . . . skepticism that the "climate lobby" would have much success in getting anything like that passed in this country.

[kenl01]

Now that's allot of snow ! Wish we could get that in the eastern US right now............


http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsart ... N-SNOW.xml


Japan struggles to cope with record snowfall

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan was bracing for more snow on Friday after some of the heaviest snowfall on record that has left 57 people dead and paralysed transport.

Almost 4 metres (13 ft) of snow has piled up in the worst-hit areas of Niigata near the Japan Sea coast, though the snowiest season of the year is yet to come.

Television pictures showed drifts burying the ground floors of houses and almost covering street lamps.

A 93-year-old woman and her daughter were crushed to death in Ishikawa Prefecture, 300 km (186 miles) northwest of Tokyo, on Thursday when their house collapsed under the weight of the snow.

Public broadcaster NHK said 57 people, including the latest fatalities, have died because of the inclement weather in the past few weeks, many of them elderly people trying to clear snow from their roofs. More than 1,300 people have been injured, it added.

Last month, Transport Minister Kazuo Kitagawa promised more funds to help rural communities, where a high proportion of the population is elderly, clear snow from local roads.

Akita prefecture in the north of Japan's main island of Honshu, has been hit hard by snow in recent days.

Many train passengers were left stranded in the area as services, including the high-speed bullet trains connecting Akita with Tokyo, came to a halt.

"If the snow continues to fall, we will have to think about calling in the armed forces to help out," a spokesman for a disaster management centre in Akita City told the daily Asahi Shimbun.

Japan's Meteorological Agency said cold weather and heavier-than-usual snowfall would likely continue through January, caused by cold air flowing over the country from the North Pole.

This is a phenomenon that occurs on a regular basis, but has lasted longer than usual this winter, an agency official said.

Japan's heaviest snowfall usually comes in January and February.



© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.