Predict 2006 landfalls, dates, and level of destruction

[HouTXmetro]

There was a post like this for 2005. I was bored so for thos who want predict the storms of 2006.

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

Alpha?
Beta?
Gamma?

[StormScanWx]

Just guesses of course, but IMO these are some 'destructive' names:

Beryl
Ernesto (despite its history )
Helene
Kirk
Rafael

[Extremeweatherguy]

The big ones this year will be the ones that appear to be nicer storms, but are really not. Take for instance, Joyce. Joyce will probably be the worst storm of 2006.

[Scorpion]

Alberto: July TS
Beryl: August Cat 5 into Florida
Chris: August Cat 4 GOM

Im stopping there.

[HouTXmetro]

Just guesses of course, but IMO these are some 'destructive' names:

Beryl
Ernesto (despite its history )
Helene
Kirk
Rafael

Alberto- weak hybrid TS- Atlantic Fish- Mid March
Beryl -weak Hybrid TS- Atlantic Fish- Early May
Chris- moderate TS- SE Louisiana -mid June
Debby -cat 1- FLA Big Bend/Panhandle -Mid June
Ernesto- TS- east coast rider/fish- late June
Florence- Cat 3- Central FLA/Brownsville- early July
Gordon-Cat2- Outter Banks/Cat1 Nw England coast-mid July.........

I'm tired, feel free to add on. lol

[wxmann_91]

IMO Debby is the scariest name of them all, followed by Sandy (no offense to HURAKAN ).

[HouTXmetro]

The big ones this year will be the ones that appear to be nicer storms, but are really not. Take for instance, Joyce. Joyce will probably be the worst storm of 2006.

I agree... monster storms to watch

Joyce
Helen
Florence
Isaac
Nadine
Rafael
Tony
Alpha

[Andrew92]

Ernesto, Joyce, and Michael

[ROCK]

The big ones this year will be the ones that appear to be nicer storms, but are really not. Take for instance, Joyce. Joyce will probably be the worst storm of 2006.

I agree... monster storms to watch

Joyce
Helen
Florence
Isaac
Nadine
Rafael
Tony
Alpha

I would go with Isaac just because of 1900. Florence is another one that begs to be a major as well as Helen. For some reason the name Helen reminds me of something evil....lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Isaac cat 5 into FL, Rafael cat 5 into somewhere

[HouTXmetro]

The big ones this year will be the ones that appear to be nicer storms, but are really not. Take for instance, Joyce. Joyce will probably be the worst storm of 2006.

I agree... monster storms to watch


Joyce
Helen
Florence
Isaac
Nadine
Rafael
Tony
Alpha

I would go with Isaac just because of 1900. Florence is another one that begs to be a major as well as Helen. For some reason the name Helen reminds me of something evil....lol

lol, Hell (Hel ene) understandable.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like all of those living in Florida want a Cat. 5 to hit them. What's up with that? why would you want a cat. 5 to hit you?

[HouTXmetro]

seems like all of those living in Florida want a Cat. 5 to hit them. What's up with that? why would you want a cat. 5 to hit you?

I don't think they want to but FLA is just so vunerable. It's just that a cat 5 hitting Fla is very likely. Especially in this period of increased activity. It's bound to happen sooner or later.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like all of those living in Florida want a Cat. 5 to hit them. What's up with that? why would you want a cat. 5 to hit you?

I don't think they want to but FLA is just so vunerable. It's just that a cat 5 hitting Fla is very likely. Especially in this period of increased activity. It's bound to happen sooner or later.

Yeah, may be to south Florida, like with Andrew...but typically central and north Florida are less vulnerable to Cat. 5 storms due to the Bahammas and a usually northward turn (though this is not always there). Lets just hope a Cat. 5 does not hit as many in FLA have never witnessed anything close, unless you lived in Punta Gorda during the eyewall of Charley (Cat. 4) or unless you lived in the VERY SMALL area of Andrews Cat. 5 force winds (downtown Miami only saw Cat. 2 force at most). As for you wilma survivors...official gusts in the major reporting stations (Miami, etc.) did not exceed 111mph, meaning that you only saw Cat. 1/2 force winds...there were small acceptions, such as places right at initial landfall and some barrier islands on the east coast, and a few rural inland south Florida locations. If a large-eyed Cat. 5 were to hit FLA, then the state would be devastated...and with most of my family living there and with an FLA east coast beach house; I would not want this to happen!

[Hurricaneman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alberto TS April 15
Beryl TS July 1
Chris TS July 25
Debby Cat 1 July 29 Pensacola
Ernesto Cat 3 Aug 10 Brownsville
Florence cat 3 Aug 15
Gordon TS Aug 17 Cape Hatteras
Helene TS Aug 18 Corpus Christi
Isaac Cat 4 Aug 31 Cape Hatteras cat 3 Long Island Cat 2
Joyce TS Sept 1 Bermuda
Kirk Cat 5 Sept 10 Key West
Leslie Cat 1 Sept 23
Michael Cat 1 Oct 1 Nova Scotia
Nadine TS Oct 28 Naples
Oscar TS Nov 29
Patty TS Dec 10

[Brent]

Isaac is the only one that sounds really threatening... and it sounds like a REALLY bad one.

[milankovitch]

Alberto - TS makes landfall east of Panama City

Beryl - Short lived TS in the Western Gulf

Chris - Forms in the Eastern Carribean landfall near Cozumel as a 95mph cat 1 then disipates in Western Gulf

Debby - Forms in Eastern Carribean hits PR as a TD then intensifies to TS strength before recurving out to sea

Ernesto - Forms in the Eastern Carribean quickly intensifies and passes over Jamaica as a fairly large 140mph cat 4. Storm weakens then moves over Cuba as a 120 mph cat 3. After that the storm makes landfall near Mobile as a compact 110 mph cat 2.

Florence - Forms north of PR maximum intensity of 100mph before recurving out to sea.

Gordon - Forms in the Central Atlantic grows into a menacing 150mph storm encounters heavy shear and weakens to a still large 110mph storm before making landfall near Charleston.

Helene - Forms south of Jamica brefily aquires TS status before fizziling out eventually hits the Yucatan as a TD.

Isaac - Long track Cape Verde storm, peaks at 165mph with an enourmous CDO over the Turks. The storm weakens to 145 mph and then restrengthens before making landfall near Hollywood as a massive 150mph storm. Isaac then moves over Lake Okeechobee and eventually exits near Daytona Beach as a 105mph storm. The upper keys suffer moderate damage. Loss of life is surprisingly low but total damages reach 100 billion dollars.

Joyce - Forms way out in the Atlantic a TS.

Kirk - Another middle of nowhere fish but this one reaches 120mph.

Leslie - Reaches TS strength over the Turks the system reaches 95mph and 975mb south of Grand Bahama. At around noon Leslie begins to explosivly intensify and within a period of 24 hours the central pressure plumets to 896mb with sustained winds of 175mph, just 9 hours from the Florida Keys. Leslie weakens slightly to 901mb with reported sustained winds of 165mph before hitting the keys. The 15 mile wide eye passes right over Marathon. Key West is saved of the worst damage by the compact nature of the storm however Marathon up to Islamorda are completely destroyed. The system then turns north and undergoes an EWRC and encounters light shear. The wind field expands and the winds drop to 145mph before Leslie makes landfall over Sanibel Island. Cape Coral and especially Fort. Myers suffer heavy damage. Bonita Springs and Naples are devistated by over 20 foot surges. The storm rapidly weakens inland and exits near Daytona Beach causing additional wind damage to homes that had just gone through Issac.

Due to the rapid intensification there is little time to evacuate. For the few that did evacuate the Keys passage is slow through the Upper Keys which sustained moderate damage from Issac. Southern Miami-Dade is impassable from Issac just two weeks ago. 800 lose there lives, mostly in Marathon which recieves a 17 foot surge. The Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area also suffers heavy casualties. Response is slowed by washed out roads and a still devestated Miami. Leslie is the last storm of 2006 (ie I'm going to bed).

Not that the above would happen in just one year I just wanted two illustrate one potential bad scenario (The Keys).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Alberto-Late April into Early May. A cold core low forming into a tropical storm over the central Atlatnic. 45 mph winds...

Beryl-Late may over The central Atlantic becoming a hurricane while moving northwestward. Max winds 80 mph.

Chris-Cape verde storms Mid June...It will move westward north of the islands like Frances. A landfall on the East coast. Cat4 at peak cat3 landfall.

Debby-Late June hurricane. Caribbean storm hits Cuba into Florida. Max cat1 85 mph winds.

Ernesto-Mid July...Major hurricane. Cat5 Miami Florida...

Florence-Mid July...Tropical storm with 50 mph winds open Atlatnic...

Gordon-Cape verde...Hurricane with 90 mph winds. Fish...Late July...

Helene-Caribbean... Texas landfall with 110 mph winds...Early August...

Isaac-Early August...Tropical storm 50 mph winds...Central Atlantic...

Joyce-Hurricane with winds 75 mph winds...Caribbean...Florida...Mid August.

Kirk-Tropical storm 40 mph winds north Gulf coast landfall. Late August.

Leslie-Tropical storm 70 mph winds...Gulf of Mexico landfall into Mexico. Late August.

Michael-Major hurricane 150 mph...Late August...Central Atlantic...North of the Islands...East coast...Isabel like...

Nadine-Hurricane 75 mph winds...Extratropical low turns into a tropical cyclone. Over central Atlantic. Mid September.

Oscar-Major hurricane 175 mph Caribbean into the Gulf...Late September...Into Western Florida cat4...

Patty-Major hurricane 130 mph Gulf of Mexico around mid October...Central Texas with 115 mph winds...

Rafael-Hurricane 100 mph winds...Gulf of Mexico around mid October...Northern Gulf Coast. Just a few days after Patty...

Sandy-Major hurricane 120 mph. Cape verdes into central Atlatnic Outterbanks hit by 90 mph hurricane around early November.

Tony-Tropical storm Gulf of Mexico. Northern Gulf coast around Early November.

This is my gut thinking. I asked it each one of these quastions in it gived me a yes or no.

110 billion in total damage...3k dead. Most of that in the United states.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My gut also forecasts a above Normal 2007 season...With 16 named storms...


Andrea-Tropical storm East coast outterbanks...Late April.

Barry-Major hurricane Gulf of Mexico into Northern Gulf New orleans again. 150 max landfall 120 mph. Mid June...This time head on...

Chantal-Major hurricane Caribbean...Yuctan landfall 170 mph cat5 Mid July.

Dean-Major hurricane Gulf of Mexico...Northern Gulf coast. Lili,Rita landfall area. Late July.

Erin-Tropical storm Caribbean Cuba landfall. Early August...

Felix-Major 140 mph Gulf of Mexico northern Gulf. Mid September.

Gabrielle-Hurricane 100 mph...Caribbean into Cuba then into Eastern Gulf. Northern Gulf as 70 mph tropical storm. Around Late September.

Humberto-Hurricane Caribbean 80 mph Cuba into southern Florida...Late Septmeber.

Ingrid-Major northern Gulf max winds 130 mph. Late September.

Jerry-Hurricane central Atlantic 100 mph winds into the East coast...Early October.

Karen-Major hurricane 160 mph...Caribbean into Gulf of Mexico into southern Florida as 130 mph hurricane. Mid october.

Lorenzo-Hurricane 80 mph eastern Atlatnic cape verde late October. Fish.

Melissa-Hurricane 80 mph central Atlantic fish...Early november.

Noel-Hurricane 75 mph north Atlantic...Early November.

Olga-Northeast Atlatnic hurricane 90 mph...Zeta like forms in mid November.

Pablo-Hurricane 80 mph Florida early December.

This is getting out there.

I think New york will get hit by a cat2 in 2010.

[Normandy]

Jesus matt the northern gulf wont exist anymore if that season pans out.