MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / EXTREME NWRN IN
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 131803Z - 132300Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 19Z INTO
   FAR NERN IL...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00
   IN/HR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
   WARM...SOME ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
   RATES.
   
   DEEPENING LOW WILL COOL COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR RAIN OVER FAR NERN IL
   TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY ABOUT 19Z. HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PERSIST OVER NERN
   IL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HRLY RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 16-17Z INDICATE
   UP TO 0.12 IN POSSIBLE PER HR...WITH 0.05-0.08 IN GENERAL. THIS
   SHOULD CORRESPOND TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 0.50 - 1.00 IN/HR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...
   
   41958724 40898755 40238813 39888842 39878902 40038940
   40678930 41618876 42098835 42318799 42378737

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PNHDL INTO SRN AND CNTRL GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18...
   
   VALID 131855Z - 132030Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL PNHDL
   AND MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE
   ENHANCED RISK FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA.
   
   LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH INCREASINGLY
   STRONG ROTATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER BARBOUR AND HENRY COUNTIES IN
   FAR SERN AL.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE
   LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS / 5-6 MB/3
   HRS / EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC.
   AS A RESULT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FT. RUCKER AL VWP SHOWING STRONG NEAR-GROUND
   SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2.
   
   WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
   SWRN GA...HORIZONTAL ADVECTION IS OFFSETTING THIS PROCESS TO SOME
   DEGREE AND MODIFICATION OF 18Z TLH SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SURFACE
   CONDITIONS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STRONG
   LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   THROUGH 20-21Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
   FROM N OF ABY TO W OF TLH.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   32698576 33208479 33238202 29668293 29968723

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132108Z - 132245Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
   NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET
   STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE
   FEATURES HAS MAINTAINED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH EXTENDED FROM
   NERN GA INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AS OF 2055Z.
   
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS LIMITED
   DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS SO FAR TODAY.
   HOWEVER...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO
   INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPES
   OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WIND FIELDS HAVE CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENED WITH
   LOCAL VWPS INDICATING STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   GIVEN THE RELATIVE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS AS
   TO HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRENGTHENING
   WAA BECOMING BETTER COUPLED WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM.  THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...THIS FORCING AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
   SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
   SUSTAINED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   31338132 31918207 33078199 33888208 34778231 34958183
   34688065 34338003 33257975 32687971

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132136Z - 132300Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND A WW WILL BE
   ISSUED.
   
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR GNV TO SE OF AYS.
   HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THIS
   INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   /WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING/ SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
   MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...
   
   29678110 29278212 29848258 31318233 31518210 31348144

[mike815]

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 132248Z - 140045Z

A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NRN
SECTIONS OF MD AREA NEAR SRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 19. GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MODIFIED 18Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG
WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...STORMS HAVE
FORMED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN FL...PERHAPS AIDED BY
WEAK LEAD VORT LOBE. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MDT INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO
FARTHER N WITHIN WW 19...THUS TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER AS WELL. 0-1
KM SRH VALUES ARE AVERAGING 50-75 M2/S2 MLB AND AMX VWPS...WHICH IS
MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES.

..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006

[mike815]

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...

VALID 140200Z - 140400Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 20...AND
SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
SERN VA. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 20. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS A
PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN SC. THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THIS REGION.

A RELATIVELY UNIFORM AIRMASS EXISTS EWD TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND EXTENDS AS FAR NWD AS SERN VA ACCORDING TO SURFACE
OBS AND EVENING RAOBS. GIVEN THIS -- AND PERSISTENT EWD-PROGRESSION
OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD E AND NE OF WW 20. THOUGH MAIN
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN WW 20 FOR SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS MOVING
RAPIDLY NEWD OVER SERN PORTION OF WW MAY APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY
OF WW 20 AROUND 04Z.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132248Z - 140045Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND THE
   MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NRN
   SECTIONS OF MD AREA NEAR SRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 19. GIVEN
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MODIFIED 18Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG
   WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
   MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...STORMS HAVE
   FORMED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN FL...PERHAPS AIDED BY
   WEAK LEAD VORT LOBE. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MDT INSTABILITY
   AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
   WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO
   FARTHER N WITHIN WW 19...THUS TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER AS WELL. 0-1
   KM SRH VALUES ARE AVERAGING 50-75 M2/S2 MLB AND AMX VWPS...WHICH IS
   MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   28068183 28928167 29228095 27978019 26967981 26038012
   26038070 27228131

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...19...
   
   VALID 140049Z - 140215Z
   
   CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING
   ENEWD ACROSS WW 18 AND 19.
   
   BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD
   ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC ATTM...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
   OCCURRING FROM FAR SERN GA SWD INTO NRN FL.  STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
   E OF WW 18 -- WHICH EXPIRES AT 14/02Z -- AND DECREASE IN SEVERE
   THREAT WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS
   REGION SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
   
   MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WW
   19...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.  EVENING
   JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ RAOB -- FEATURING 36 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND JUST
   OVER 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THUS
   EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST EXTRAP0LATION
   SUGGESTS THAT FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OFF THE SERN GA COAST BY
   04-05Z...AND THEREFORE -- THOUGH FRONT MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
   OVER NRN FL -- MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER WW 19 BY
   ITS SCHEDULED 14/06Z EXPIRATION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   33028206 33048109 33508002 32977917 31328117 29418085
   28938168 29158251 29818296 31118265 31798292

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...
   
   VALID 140200Z - 140400Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 20...AND
   SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
   SERN VA.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 20. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
   SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS A
   PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN SC.  THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   THIS REGION.
   
   A RELATIVELY UNIFORM AIRMASS EXISTS EWD TO THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...AND EXTENDS AS FAR NWD AS SERN VA ACCORDING TO SURFACE
   OBS AND EVENING RAOBS. GIVEN THIS -- AND PERSISTENT EWD-PROGRESSION
   OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD E AND NE OF WW 20.  THOUGH MAIN
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN WW 20 FOR SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS MOVING
   RAPIDLY NEWD OVER SERN PORTION OF WW MAY APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY
   OF WW 20 AROUND 04Z.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   36188070 37067745 36877598 35297597 33797807 33067914
   33058136 34608085

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 140210Z - 140415Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS STORMS MOVE INLAND AND A WW
   COULD BE REQUIRED IF STORMS INTENSIFY.
   
   LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 00Z TBW
   SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME. PRESSURES
   CONTINUE TO FALL OVER N CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF THIS LINE...AND LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS. LEAD LEFT MOVER HAS
   MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS IT HAS TREKKED ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING.
   IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD
   LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...EITHER FROM OUTFLOW OR IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MESOCYCLONES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A TORNADO IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   29128297 29288275 29328220 29328156 28228213 28008236
   27908356 28748320

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC/SERN GA/NERN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19...
   
   VALID 140401Z - 140500Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ALONG BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING OFF THE GA
   COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN PARTS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN SC.  THOUGH THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS WITH STORMS ALONG
   THIS LINE...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD/OFFSHORE WITHIN THE
   NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES EWD. 
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED ALL OF WW AREA BY 05Z -- THE
   SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 19...THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY
   LINGER JUST BEYOND WW EXPIRATION OVER COASTAL NERN FL.
   HOWEVER...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE WELL
   OFFSHORE...REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS NERN FL.
   
   FURTHER S...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE SRN
   2/3 OF FL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION AS COLD FRONT
   SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH TIME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...MLB...JAX...
   
   29638082 28948171 29008200 29788195 33478006 33107924
   32098023 30818095

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...DE...SRN NJ...NRN NECK OF VA AND ERN/SRN
   MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 140719Z - 140845Z
   
   WELL-DEVELOP SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED OVER THE NRN NECK OF
   VA...ALONG NRN PORTION OF A LINE OF TSTMS THAT EXTENDS SWD INTO ERN
   NC.  THIS BOW ECHO WAS MOVING 210/45 AND IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO NERN
   MD AROUND 10Z.
   
   VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS A H5 JET OF
   95+ KTS ROTATES NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY UPPER TROUGH
   AXIS.  STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL PA HAS MAINTAINED
   A SELY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 0-1KM SHEAR IN
   EXCESS OF 40 KTS WAS BEING OBSERVED ON THE DOVER DE VWP.
   THUS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
   SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS
   IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN VA NEWD THROUGH ERN MD INTO DE...EXTREME SERN
   PA AND NJ WHERE 56-61 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE BEING
   OBSERVED.  THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE OF A COOLER
   NEAR-SURFACE MARINE LAYER VCNTY CHESAPEAKE BAY/ATLANTIC...ANY
   STRONGER TSTM MAY BE CAPABLE AT BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
   SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR.
   
   A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   37907696 39097653 40057583 40217531 39917454 39437471
   38747521 38017553

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...
   
   VALID 140831Z - 141000Z
   
   LINE OF TSTMS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS...CONTINUES TO
   TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS ERN NC AND SERN VA AT 40-45 KTS.
   EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LINE CLEARING THE MAINLAND BETWEEN 09-10Z AND
   THE COASTAL WATERS BY 1030Z. 
   
   HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA
   WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
   PRESSURE FALL AXIS OVER PA.  FARTHER S...TIME-SERIES TO THE VWP AND
   SURFACE WINDS SHOW A VEERING WIND PATTERN WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE
   TSTMS. BUT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE CROSS-COMPONENT
   FLOW TO THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN
   A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH AN ISOLD
   TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
   34407668 36617629 37217645 37437650 37397530 35217516
   34447588

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING NYC AND LONG
   ISLAND...WRN CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141130Z - 141300Z
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING WITH THE 989 MB
   LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH NERN PA.  MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN
   EXCESS OF 100 KTS CONTINUES TO PUNCH NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES WITH STRONG UVV SUPPORTING A LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN NY SWD
   INTO NJ. 
   
   GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT
   LINE SEGMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TSTM
   LINE TO EVOLVE INTO BOWS/LEWPS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN LONG-LIVED
   DURING THE NIGHT.  THE STRONG SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED SEASONABLY HIGH
   DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND THE
   RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER SERN NY...NWRN NJ AND NWRN CT HAS BEEN
   ERODING RAPIDLY.  STILL...THERE WAS LIKELY A SKIN LAYER OF STABLE
   AIR ACROSS THE REGION...OWING TO RELATIVELY COOL MARINE
   TRAJECTORIES.  AS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   NOT CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS.  RATHER... STRONGER CELLS
   THAT EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED BOWS TEND TO PRODUCE STREAKS OF HIGHER
   WIND/ISOLD TORNADO PROBABILITIES.  THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
   THE CASE AS THE STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NYC AREA...SERN NY
   AND WRN CT THROUGH 14Z.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   39457450 41477504 42107472 42017306 41697259 40987244
   40377257 40067341

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS
   
   VALID 150615Z - 151215Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
   OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
   THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR
   EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE
   COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO
   BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN
   NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
   
   LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE
   TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING
   UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN
   ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION
   OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN
   ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
   
   SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST
   BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
   THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
   TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME.
   FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED
   AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
   SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE
   TOWARD EARLY MORNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
   
   38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251
   40227310 38457496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162324Z - 170130Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
   STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   
   A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID
   LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB
   PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A
   SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO
   LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT
   ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD
   OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO
   COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT
   AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT
   INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS
   COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   27359694 26459780 27619847 30289648 31809578 32549410
   30049324 28009610

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   
   VALID 170851Z - 171445Z
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LWR MI THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE ACROSS
   CNTRL AND PARTS OF NCNTRL LWR MI WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
   PER HOUR PSBL. SLEET PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
   LWR MI.
   
   CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI THIS
   MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS
   MN.  LARGE WARM CONVEYOR WAS TRANSPORTING LOW/MID-LEVEL MSTR NWD
   INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS
   LK MI AND SRN LWR MI SINCE 06Z.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE INCREASING/MOVE NWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
   MID-MORNING.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
   DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. BUT...THE COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN
   RAPIDLY AS STRONGER UVV SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS AT LEAST THE
   WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING. 
   
   06Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
   ABOVE 0 DEGREE C OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NRN MI BY 15Z.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WET-BULBING WILL MAINTAIN BELOW
   FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI.
   ONLY FAR NWRN LWR MI WILL SEE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO
   SUPPORT A SLEET MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER UVV.  MAINLY
   SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NW ACROSS UPPER MI.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/17/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   43598381 43298415 43358471 43738554 44328594 44698575
   45148497 45298443 44708409

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 180122Z - 180515Z
   
   PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THROUGH 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   BROAD WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF
   UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IS LEADING TO EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO PA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
   NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
   LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS
   SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT/EPISODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
   PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
   THIS EVENING. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE MELTING LAYER ABOVE
   MAINTENENCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATER THIS
   EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
   INDUCE A SWITCH-OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN NY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   44287588 44737465 44077362 42947348 42017406 41707431
   41537481 41367563 41377630 41337756 41507795 41867812
   42537792 42717774 42967729 43407630 43787601

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE RANGE INTO
   SRN ORE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 180813Z - 181415Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WEST FACING
   SLOPES OF THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE SRN ORE CASCADE RANGE.
   SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE AT
   TIMES TO 2500 FEET IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS.
   
   LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WAS
   BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ONSHORE WRN ORE AND NWRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET.  CONSIDERABLE OPEN CELL TYPE CLOUDS
   ATTEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE N OF THE
   CYCLONIC JET.  IN FACT...NLDN/OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/OFFSHORE. 
   
   WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MID-MORNING...
   WITH STRONG...MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
   NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND SRN ORE CASCADES. CIRA SATL BLENDED TPW STILL
   SUGGESTS AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT. 
   
   SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO 2500-3000 FEET...BUT
   COULD DIP TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVY SNOW BURSTS.  HEAVIEST
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND BE CENTERED MAINLY
   ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY CA NWD INTO THE SRN ORE
   CASCADES.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...EKA...
   
   41402372 41972363 42292285 42512267 43032236 43442224
   43392201 42902207 42202220 41392220 40922306 40972352

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE
   WASATCH RANGE IN UT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 180937Z - 181530Z
   
   LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
   THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE
   IN UT NORTH OF ABOUT I-80.  LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH
   1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   IR-SATL SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS A SWATH FROM NRN NV
   INTO SRN ID....ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE.  A STRONG
   UPPER LEVEL JET WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE
   CA/ORE TROUGH...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ASCENT.  RESULTANT
   ENHANCED H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS LIKELY THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
   THE INCREASING PCPN RATES.
   
   PCPN RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
   AS STRONGER MOIST WLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS
   TO SINK SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  RAWS SITES SUGGEST THAT THE
   09Z SNOW LEVELS...RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN ERN ID/TETONS TO 7000
   FEET IN THE UT WASATCH RANGE...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. BY
   MID-DAY...SNOW LEVELS IN THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL RANGE FROM 3500 FEET
   IN THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID AND THE TETONS TO 5000 FEET IN THE
   WASATCH RANGE NORTH OF I-80.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/18/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...
   
   42021074 41521072 41101125 40751178 40881184 40951186
   41371191 41531178 41851179 42171180 42381189 42361225
   42421252 42811244 43071196 43491161 44001082 42911065